@Wizerguy
Right the Bills' run defense is a little suspect for sure as they give up 4.7 per rush but the D is giving up only 19 points per game and their offense is clicking so long as Allen does not turn the ball over. IF is a big word but there are two sides to that coin also.
BOL 
@Buffalobob89074
I do not see that making such of a difference unless there is ugly weather and it turns into a ground game, or if the Chiefs get a big lead and then go to running.
BUF Rushing D is for sure worse on the road but KC rushing is worse at home.
For example:
BUF Rushing Defense at home: 4.4 Y/A and -.14 EPA/A
BUF Rushing Defense on road: 5.1 Y/A and 0.0 EPA/A
KC Rushing Offense at home: 4.1 Y/A and -.06 EPA/A
KC Rushing Offense on road: 4.6 Y/A and .06 EPA/A
For sure, I think you are right about Allen on the road though. His difference level between home and road is worse than a lot of QBs. But he does seem to get up for the KC games.
Pacheco has 779 rushing yards at 4.4 yards per attempt. The next best RB is Edwards-Hellaire with 150 yards at 3.5 yards per attempt. The rest of the RBs combined have less than 80 yards. Mahomes has 331 yards at 5.8 yards per attempt, that's what boosts up that average. The Chiefs should be ineffective on designed rushing plays. Pacheco was their best chance of exploiting that weakness in the Bills defense. I like Buffalo.
You are making an assumption and an erroneous one at that If by thinking outside the box you think books try to trick people and get them to one side because they already know the outcome of the event then yes I will never think outside the box
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