Emmanuel is back.

Here we are… once again… Super Bowl.

I have a love-hate relationship with this website. This was the longest I had gone without logging in—I even forgot my password and unfortunately lost access to my previous email to recover password so... Gutinstinct or some shit like that it was. 

Anyways, I always end up feeling compelled to come back. For the love of the game, and especially, for the love of those who love the game. And I don’t mean the game of football; I mean the full game of sports handicapping. 

Anyways, listen, learn, take what you want, make comments, and if it is helpful, a little thanks for my ego does wonders for me and keeps me coming back more frequently. Now, to business: 

This is the easiest Super Bowl I have ever handicapped. And trust me, I have put in hours on this because I cannot believe what I am being offered.

We have a team that, undoubtedly, has the best defense in the league. And if you compare player by player, it also has the better offense, regardless of Mahomes being on the other sidewalk. Yes, KC has a very good defense (I’d say slightly overhyped) and a very good offense led by the best QB in football. But football is more than just a QB and a TE—Philly is better literally everywhere else (well, we’ll give them kicker as well).

So why the hell is Philadelphia an underdog?

Well… two hypotheses:
i) The books know that the money (I don’t like the term “public/square”) will favor KC, regardless of whether the line is set at -2 or +3.
ii) The books are overhyping the QB position and Andy Reid.

The trenches are the key to handicapping football. Write that down. Free wisdom for next season. That’s where we start winning inches, a la Pacino. And Philly wins that battle on both sides—better O-line, especially both tackles (the league’s crème de la crème), and a better D-line. Yes, Chris Jones is the best player from both D-lines, but this ain’t a one-man show (and Jalen Carter is up there with CJ). Full unit vs. full unit? I take Philly’s D-line all day. And even with Jones, Lane Johnson, Mailata, & Co. are not an easy task. My God, it will be delightful. I hope Jones gets a fair number of snaps lined up on the left edge vs. Lane.

 (Part 2 next)

I also truly like Philly’s secondary and LBs better. But I get that it may be closer to a wash, so I won’t go into detail there—though a bit more on that will come below.

Now… offense.

Jalen Hurts finally understood that, regardless of his talent, with this team, he just has to be a caretaker of the ball. Last year: 15 interceptions. This year: FIVE. With this O-line, his legs, and a true human stallion at RB (the unnameable), you don’t need to get fancy

Defenses can’t go all-in on the unnameable because Jalen can still fool you with his legs, and he is still a damn good passer. It also helps having A.J. Brown (top 5 receiver, no doubt), and Goedert and Smith, whom I also rank among the top two tiers at their positions. On any other team, their stats would probably be 2x what they have been in Philly due to the unnameable, this rushing O, and the fact that Philly is always ahead.

But I can’t get away from that rush attack. GOOD OL’ RECIPE… RUN THE ROCK AND PLAY D.

This year, Philadelphia had the most rush attempts of any team—by a landslide—with 621. And they averaged 4.9 YPC. That’s insane when you consider that many of those rush attempts were tush-pushes for automatic 2 yards. If you took all those away, their YPC would be around 6. And when you average that and have a team that is almost infallible on 3rd/4th and short, your offense is practically unstoppable.

And I haven’t even gone into detail about the unnameable. If I do, this post won’t end—and it still won’t do him justice.

So all in all, unless one of three things happens: i) Jalen succumbs to big-game pressure and turns the ball over for the first time all season, like he did last SB (or there are some weird fumbles, which is unlikely given that the rock will be in the unnameable’s hands most of the time). ii) Sirianni gets stupidly creative and goes pass-heavy; or iii) A significant injury to Philly’s O-line, Barkley, or Jalen; KC has no chance of stopping or slowing down Philadelphia.

Now, KC’s offense.

KC has a QB who will one day be in the GOAT conversation. We must appreciate his greatness. They also have a very solid O-line, especially inside. Their big, big issue? We all know it: LT.

Pacheco and Hunt are OK. Nothing outstanding. And they are going against one of the best rushing Ds in the league. I aint worried there.

Now, the key—where I believe Philly is different from the team KC beat two years ago—is Philly’s pass defense. I don’t want to limit it to just the secondary, since pass D plays as a whole, but man this secondary is so much better! Slay is the same. But Mitchell and Dejean are significant upgrades compared to Bradberry and, especially, Maddox. Philly doesn’t have the best CB in football—I'd say not even a top 5 CB, regardless of how good Slay is—but as a 1-2-3 punch? I doubt there is better CB corpse in the NFL. My kid Dejean is a gem covering the slot.

Kelce will always be Kelce. He is older and worse than two years ago, and no one can dispute that. But he’s still Travis effing Kelce. Now, I think C.J. Gardner is much better than he was two years ago. And he can now focus more on Kelce—hopefully with some help from a LB or even Dejean.

The one guy I do worry about? Xavier Worthy. No player on the Eagles squad can match that speed. Period.

(Part 3 next)

If all that hasn’t convinced you yet, here are some final angles:

1. Let’s look at 2023’s Super Bowl. A weaker Philly (yeah, Brandon Graham and Hasson Reddick were there), but there was also Carter (whose stats this year are up there with Chris Jones’), Mitchell, Dejean, and especially the unnameable. They lost by 3 in a game where:
   i) KC had a defensive TD off an absolute stupidity of a fumble by Hurts.
   ii) We had the most controversial late-whistle defensive holding call in SB history.
   iii) Philly had 77 more yards than KC.
2. Look at this year’s playoffs. Philly beat the Packers and the Rams by 12 and by 6. Philly blew away this year’s Cinderella—whom everyone was betting on (everyone but yours truly, in what was my biggest bet of the season… only to be topped a week later by the big game bet).

KC, on the other hand, beat Houston by 9.

The books are giving us the best team—by a significant margin—as an underdog. In my model, this line should be Philly -3.

Put Meek Mill on. Buy the unnameable’s jersey. Get a mortgage on your house and put what they give you on the best team out there.

Go Birds!

BETS:

Philadelphia ML. +105. ALL IN

Over. Put some money on it. Washington managed to score 23 on Philly and Buffalo 29 on KC. And Philly´s O and KC´s O are much much better than those two teams. HOWEVER, THE BIG BIG BET IS THE ML.

Additional advice, if KC were to win, this game is no doubt going over. Philadelphia is the team that can grind the clock. If  Philly is behind and starts passing it will still score some and won´t consume that much clock. So, if you like KC, bet KC + over, and see the over hit, and hate yourself for not listening to me with Phily.

Cheers!

GL Love the side but under 50 is the play!

Both 

I agree with pretty much everything you said including what the line should be.  I had put some futures on Philly to win Super Bowl and Philly to Beat KC in Super Bowl so my decision was to hedge or not.  I think I'm going to let it ride.  My only concern is in a close game where field goals may matter, Elliot is far from steady this year.  

@MJwearinda4-5

 Great analysis !

The only thing I would want you to comment on is the 3 peat possibility that I think the NFL wants.  How can you possibly cap this game without at least addressing it. Unlike that moron in post #4, to give you the wagging finger without supporting his position is what Covers members have watered down too.

Anyway, I appreciate the time you put in to explain your side.  I'm still undecided, but will probably read, and reread your thread before the big game.  BOL with your choices.

@KillaPicks

 Not for nothing but I haven't seen you post anything as to why you have so much love for the chiefs with no reasoning at all but posting things like that finger wagging emoji and posting zero chance and negative comments on any and all eagles backers posts and threads ....why is this? what's with the hate?

Killa, is just pointing out the obvious. You guys are funding reasons to bet against the Michael Jordan of football. Usually, that doesn’t turn out to well. The way I am approaching this game is simple: If I bet the Eagles and lose, how will I feel about myself the next morning? Vs If the Chiefs lose, so be it. They have won me enough money over the years that I won’t have a single regret. 

@begginerboy

 Spot on . I rather die on the goat Patty’s hill over Jalen hurts . So be it if it loses . When the chips are on the table I know who I’m backing 

@begginerboy

 That's fine, I can respect that cuz I can respect mahomes as well but I think it's the eagles game this time around and if it's not I'll be on this thread to congratulate you killa and all of the chiefs backers but in return show a little congrats as well if and when you lose to us Eagle backers

Ok, but my question is, if the public is all over the Chiefs  / Mahomes / Swifties to win and three-peat (and they could / might), then isn't Vegas worried about that?

Is it really that easy to cap and play the Eagles ML or Eagles +1.5? 

@MJwearinda4-5

Does it concern you that Mahomes is 15-0 in domed / closed roof stadiums?
Also, not sure where you get KC and PHI offense being much better than BUF and WAS.

@KillaPicks

Actually he’s right. The douche bags that come in to these threads with that finger wagging emoji make me and any normal minded human being cringe hard. Like who the fk is that cocky about a pick in a game that’s as close to a pick ‘em as it gets. 

All: Thanks for joining the conversation and posting something relevant. It does matter for those who post to get your feedback and know that it was at least read.  I will answer your questions and comments below: 

@bossmanDEL You are right about Elliott. Lets just hope whenever we have a 4th in between KCs 40 and 20, it is 4th and short. 

@Cooler999 Thanks man! I would be lying if I said I have not considered the conspiracy theories surrounding the Chiefs, especially with the officiating breaks they had through the season. But  unlike boxing where I had to quit betting because many fights are clearly rigged, I still believe in the integrity of this beautiful game. In the end, it is the owners who decide, and most of those owners ultimately dont even care about money because they are set for this and many more lives with their real businesses. This is a hobby and dream, where they only care of lifting that Lombardi themselves. I respect those who may feel it is rigged or there is a hairy dark hand interferring, I was in that position, I would quit betting that sport. 

@begginerboy @NoFlyZone, good. You guys clearly value more the QB. But if QB was everything Burrow would have at least been on the Playoffs and shit QBs like Nick Foles, Brad Johnson and Trent Dilfer would have never won a SB. Must be boring to try to handicap a game with your approach though. GL both. 

@tvigilante2020: The thing about the "public" and "where the money is coming from" is that none of us really owns a book. They can tell us one thing, but how real is it, we dont know. Now, my perception is that the casual fan definitely likes to bet on Mahomes, just because he is Mahomes. Just as they liked to bet on Connor McGregor or Tiger Woods blindly. They dont understand lines and will bet KC regardless. If you see, the line has very slightly moved on Philly´s favor and towards the over (last Sunday some online books opened at +110 and o/u was 48.5). That adjustment is a corection. We dont know the reason (whether money came in on Philly, whether a large sindicate showed the books how wrong they were with their opening line, whatever...). But it is a correction. Anyways, I trust my handicapping to a point where the only reason I consider line movement in my thought process is to see if I may get a better line on the bet I want later on or if I should pull the trigger now. 

@Jimmy_Cats: I had not considered the Mahomes and domes stat. You would need to see who has he beat. Most teams playing in domes in the Mahomes era are not very good. He is a beast... anywhere he plays. He is the best player in this match. But this is a sport of 22 players, QB is just the most significant element, but it is not even 20% of the total weight. Also, Jalen Hurts deserves some respect as well. 

Philly´s offense is better than Buffalo no doubt. All numbers show it. Total points. Average yards per attempt. And especially player by player comparison. Allen may be better than Hurts. But without a doubt, if Buffalo could switch the unnameable, AJ, Smith, Goedert or Philly´s O Line they would do for all of them. 
KC vs Washington I think it is also quite obvious KC is a better offense. I got lazy but do the same comparison and it will show.