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Falcons -2 1/2 WriteUp

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Posted: #51
Quote Originally Posted by sammyRN:

first of all, dont let the soft line fool you.  vegas has disrespected the falcons all year and set lines that appeared to be sucker bets all season.  look at week1: -1 @ KC (atl wins 40-24), week 5: -3 @ WASH (atl wins 24-17), week 9: -3 1/2 vs DALL (atl wins 19-13), week 15: -1 vs NYG (atl wins 34-0), and the line that everyone thought was a TRAP?  week 16: -3 1/2 @ DET (atl wins 31-18)  so please, dont be intimidated by biting on a questionable line.

Didnt realize the season was only 5 weeks... must have imagined the other games... This first paragraph made me not take u seriously..

but best of luck on ur plays

 

 
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Posted: #52
Quote Originally Posted by evaneagan:

Not sure where this ATL-1 line exists, but every book in Vegas, and the state of Nevada as a whole, has this game at ATL-2.5. 

The sharp money has yet to hit this game as they are giving ATL backers, and all the other squares out there, the chance to drive the line up to SEA+3. The books, however, are keen to this and it might not reach their number—which is fine. 

Seattle will miss the presence of Chris Clemons up front, but their D is built from the back to the front. They have had an average pass rush all year and have relied on a strong secondary to dominate opponents. Fortunately Atlanta's running game is average at best. 

This is a bad matchup for Atlanta as their lackluster rush defense will have no answer for Marshawn Lynch, nor their fleet of foot QB Russell Wilson. The Hawks pass defense is well suited for physical receivers such as Atlanta's corps and they will still be able to put enough pressure on Matt Ryan to force him into bad decisions. 

Throw into the mix Matt Ryan's lack of ability to win a playoff game and you come to one conclusion: take the Hawks and the points.


So Russell Wilson wins a game because the other team loses its qb and now hes better than a guy with the nickname "Matty Ice"?


gl with that
 
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Posted: #53

Evaneagean I am with ya!

 
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Posted: #54
everyone keeps saying how this is a bad matchup for atlanta because of this seattle secondary.  how is that when seattle has played only 4 teams this year that rank in the top 10 in pass offense?  the rest of their schedule had teams at the bottom, and i mean bottom of the nfl in pass offense.  and how did this outstanding secondary do vs those 4 teams?  brady carved them up @ seattle, the pats defense melted down and lost them the game.  stafford lit them up and lions won @ detroit.  they beat the cowboys, but c'mon man its the cowboys.  and green bay beat them even though that pathetic packer o line gave up 8 sacks.  that was not a seattle win, cheaters!  lol

anyway, now they will go right back at playing a top ranked pass offense and have to face an offensive coordinator that has had 2 weeks to gameplan for this.  an o coordinator that would have gotten a head coaching job had he not wanted to stay in atlanta.  well, he wanted to stay because he knows he has something special going on in atlanta and unfortunately for all you seattle backers you will see this special something come sunday.
 
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Posted: #55

Top Offence is easy vs teams that are crap.  Couldn't you say ATL is overated when they've only played (and beat) 3 teams all season with above .500 records?  A game where they were lucky to get 4 picks off of Peyton otherwise they would have lost, a hurting Cowboys and floundering Giants.

Who have they played that were good teams? 

 
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Posted: #56
Nice write up as always sammy, just wanted to point out that Nolan has had only one week to prepare (not two weeks), generally ATL doesnt play that well against panthers 
(high scoring games that usually the falcons win cause of the lack of defense from carolina) and finally if everyone is saying that the hawks are a bad matchup for the falcons in my opinion its because seattle s a good running team and atlanta is a mediocre rush defense team, just my thoughts 
 
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Posted: #57
I live in ATL and will root for the Falcons but have these concerns:

- How healthy is John Abraham after the ankle injury?

- Will the SEA cornerbacks take Roddy White out of his game? In the past Roddy gets flustered and takes stupid penalties when he lets other teams get under his skin.

- ATL has no running game. Forget Turner as he is no threat. The best to expect is that he breaks a run for 12 yards.
 
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Posted: #58
sea will struggle cuz....they wont generate AS MUCH a of a pass rush w/clemmons out....this will cuz DBs to stay in coverage longer allowing WRs to get open...(no puny WRs like moss for was)....plus new kicker....all that factors in yull see!!!!!
 
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Posted: #59

I appreciate your thoughts and the time it took type it.  The line really doesn't surprise me at all.  It is where I expected. 

I like the Hawks to win, but then again, lot of folks do. 

You may be on the right side, as Atlanta did cover several "soft" lines this year. 

Charlie

 
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Posted: #60

Thanks for this write up, really appreciate the work that went into it! I agree losing Clemons is going to hurt, big time.

But I still see SEA controlling the tempo of the game early and winning their 4th road game in a row. That running attack is too tough to beat.

Also, its reall hard to judge how good ATL really is (Remember, the Seahawks had one of the toughest schedules all season) since they havent shown us anything since mid October. The only good team they've played over the last 3 months is Carolina, and they lost.

SEA -2.5

 
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Posted: #61
Train69: Cut it however you'd like. Matt Ryan, or Matty Ice—which really eludes to a watered down version of a good quarterback, much as Natty Ice is a watered down version of beer—has not won a playoff game. But not once in my analysis did I say Russell Wilson was better than Matt Ryan.

Take who you will. I'm sure you're used to losing by now. But don't say we didn't tell you so after the fact. 

The writing is on the wall.
 
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Posted: #62
[Quote: Originally Posted by Shushushushi]

Top Offence is easy vs teams that are crap.  Couldn't you say ATL is overated when they've only played (and beat) 3 teams all season with above .500 records?  A game where they were lucky to get 4 picks off of Peyton otherwise they would have lost, a hurting Cowboys and floundering Giants.

Who have they played that were good teams? 

i hear you with the 3 wins with teams with a winning record, but seattle only has 2 more wins than them.  and it was honestly 1 more win as that green bay game was cheated!  i believe this was the same situation as last year's playoffs when the patriots only had beat a few teams during the regualr season with winning records and alot of people thought they were frauds going into the playoffs.  only to see them march their way to the superbowl.  the falcons are legit bro!

 
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Posted: #63
I hate to go against a great write up but i think youre missing a decent point.  Besides KC & Redskins, all the teams the Falcons beat do not have a potent running attack.  if u look at the teams they have difficulties with, panthers & bucs, their offensive style is very similar.  Hardnose rbs & a mobile qb.  The extra point is seahawks have a better defense even if they lose clemons.  I think the rush game will control the tempo & keep Ryan off the field.  Advantage seahawks.

About the 8000 miles comment from someone else, is like saying giants cant fly to candlestick & beat the 49ers.  

GL
 
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Posted: #64
Lol i take it you dint travel and understanding the concept of jet lag going from west to east
 
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Posted: #65
sorry for the dumb grammar and spelling...typomg this on my phone
 
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Posted: #66
I understand what youre trying to say with the concept of jet lag.  but it is an invalid point.  Seahawks beat carolina & made wings out of buffalo.  3hr time zone difference is not a big deal.  jet lag can be taken care of by milk or melatonin pills.
 
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Posted: #67
which of those were early starts? neither. what hapoened in miami in their early start?
 
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Posted: #68
They win by 7... I like.
 
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Posted: #69
Quick fact! Sea is 0-2 playing 10am pst games this yr, plus 8,250 flight miles in a 1 week span = I'm taking taking Atl-2.5

GL all!
 
 
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Posted: #70
Quote Originally Posted by TheOffical:

Quick fact! Sea is 0-2 playing 10am pst games this yr, plus 8,250 flight miles in a 1 week span = I'm taking taking Atl-2.5

GL all!

Square alert!!!
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