Posted:
#51
Tha-GodRod,
Great read and excellent take on the situation. I deal with locals and they would say the exact same thing. Well done sir.
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For those of you calling people "squares" and "the public"....how'd you do today?
Posted:
#52
THA-GODROD - excellent post. 
How was Vandy, Wisky, Cali, Virginia Tech, Indiana to you on Saturday? I'm sure pretty much like Sunday in NFL.
This was definitely a weekend where the sportsbooks paid back to the majority of the public. Saying that you won this weekend does not make you a "square" you might just be a good handicapper who consistently wins.What is being said is that overall this weekend the sportsbooks/bookies lost money to their clients. That doesn't happen very often but this weekend it hit them hard both saturday and sunday.
I hate seeing the sharp/square words tossed around because there are so few "sharps" that are actually out there. The majority of the time Vegas wants 50/50 on each side, but there are cases where they let that number slide to 70/30 or 80/20 knowing that one side is stronger than the public perceives them to be. When that 70-80% covers then they lose big and the "public" wins. (this weekend for example).
All this being, I don't think anyone is saying to "fade the public" and you will win. What you need to do is "fade the public" on certain games, and the others just lay off if you want to win consistently. This is an area that is of high interest to me, so would love to hear more opinions on this subject.
How was Vandy, Wisky, Cali, Virginia Tech, Indiana to you on Saturday? I'm sure pretty much like Sunday in NFL.This was definitely a weekend where the sportsbooks paid back to the majority of the public. Saying that you won this weekend does not make you a "square" you might just be a good handicapper who consistently wins.What is being said is that overall this weekend the sportsbooks/bookies lost money to their clients. That doesn't happen very often but this weekend it hit them hard both saturday and sunday.
I hate seeing the sharp/square words tossed around because there are so few "sharps" that are actually out there. The majority of the time Vegas wants 50/50 on each side, but there are cases where they let that number slide to 70/30 or 80/20 knowing that one side is stronger than the public perceives them to be. When that 70-80% covers then they lose big and the "public" wins. (this weekend for example).
All this being, I don't think anyone is saying to "fade the public" and you will win. What you need to do is "fade the public" on certain games, and the others just lay off if you want to win consistently. This is an area that is of high interest to me, so would love to hear more opinions on this subject.
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Posted:
#56
There are some great points buried in this thread! Ironic because my mind was working the same way this morning. Here is my journal entry:Vegas makes money two ways
1. 10% vig on most wagers
2. being on the "right" side of wagers
line movement numbers and public opinion surely indicate some of these tendencies but we have seen books move lines for no reason or not move lines when there seems to be plenty of pre-game reason or post game reason for said movement
all in all I agree with contrarian leans (betting against espn, the public and against middle of the pack line movement)
That being said the public HAS to win sometime or they will quit coming back! Vegas still makes 10% routinely
On the flip side, professional gamblers would break the book if it became predictable either way so there IS NO TREND BENEFIT LONG TERM WITH BETTING FAVS AND DOGS.
picking and choosing either side is the art form we are crafting. The basic issues with the sport are somewhat black and white, money management we are learning is paramount!!! Picking the side in relation to 1. actual predicted gameplay 2. flurry of public opinion and where Vegas wants the money to go is our task. Making a living and maintenance of the bankroll is the ONLY objective.
Here is a trend that you can count on>>>>>> It does not matter which side you are backing Vegas stays on the RIGHT side of games by making the bettor AFRAID to back a side, favourite or dog.
I realize there are some paranoid aspects to my statements but to believe that some of these situations do not exist from time to time would be ignorant!
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Posted:
#57
Thanks for the positive feedback gentlemen!!! Almost makes me wanna chime in more often!!!!
Veripicks, to answer your question, the wisc and penn st games were surely games i'd like to forget being the fact that i didnt take one bet on michigan or indiana. Michigan seemed to be the right play on paper but wisc was too well coached and basically just pounded the ball up michigans ass all day long. Its hard to get upset when ground game and defense are your strengths. However, penn st had no business covering vs indiana. That game was tied up late and i could see penn st getting the win but to cover an 11 point spread was rediculous and very rare.
In response to grinder360, i am all too familiar with the lack of money management thing. For example, one of my players went 10-1 on saturday including the 2 games in the paragraph above. Sunday morning he came out of the gate "going for the throat" and trying 2 continue the hot streak by making a couple large plays. This time he didnt get the miracle covers and gave back nearly everything he won the previous day. So tell me whats wrong with this picture; a guy goes 10-4 and isnt showing profit!! Thats sick!! Just think if he stuck to the same wager amount and played a dime on all plays(no more no less). After his losses+vig he still would have been +5600!!! But few people do that and thats what gets them in big trouble. So remember that shit bro!! I know that when your hot, you feel like you just cant miss, but believe me, you CAN AND WILL!!!
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Posted:
#58
Quote Originally Posted by THA-GODROD:
Thanks for the positive feedback gentlemen!!! Almost makes me wanna chime in more often!!!!
Thanks for the positive feedback gentlemen!!! Almost makes me wanna chime in more often!!!!
Veripicks, to answer your question, the wisc and penn st games were surely games i'd like to forget being the fact that i didnt take one bet on michigan or indiana. Michigan seemed to be the right play on paper but wisc was too well coached and basically just pounded the ball up michigans ass all day long. Its hard to get upset when ground game and defense are your strengths. However, penn st had no business covering vs indiana. That game was tied up late and i could see penn st getting the win but to cover an 11 point spread was rediculous and very rare.
In response to grinder360, i am all too familiar with the lack of money management thing. For example, one of my players went 10-1 on saturday including the 2 games in the paragraph above. Sunday morning he came out of the gate "going for the throat" and trying 2 continue the hot streak by making a couple large plays. This time he didnt get the miracle covers and gave back nearly everything he won the previous day. So tell me whats wrong with this picture; a guy goes 10-4 and isnt showing profit!! Thats sick!! Just think if he stuck to the same wager amount and played a dime on all plays(no more no less). After his losses+vig he still would have been +5600!!! But few people do that and thats what gets them in big trouble. So remember that shit bro!! I know that when your hot, you feel like you just cant miss, but believe me, you CAN AND WILL!!!
dont forget the tenn/vandy game. needed vandy bad myself and tenn breaks one for a td on 4th and 2 for the cover with about 1:30 left. had a ton of action on tenn and so did alot of other locals i know.
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Posted:
#59
Quote Originally Posted by RonaldRegan22:
When did i say being a favorite makes it a square play?
Ive never in my life even suggested that...
but when you have the chiefs line opening up at 7....and over 67% of public money pouring in on them....driving the line up to 7.5 ....or even 8 at some places.....then by no means is that a sharp play.
The "sharp" play of the day....was the Rams. Which lost.
If you have a lead on identifying sharp plays.....and the sharps win more then they lose, then you should be able to devise a system to take advantage of this. Yet no one ever has......EVER. 
If you gave orders that Santiago wasn't to be touched.....and your orders are always followed, then why would he have to be transferred?
Let me run this by you.....let's say the sharps saw the KC line when it came out and LOVED it. So they bet it at -7......as might be expected, many folks piled on and the line goes up. Is that so crazy? Sometimes the sharps and the "public" are on the same side folks.
When are people ever going to give this up. You will never, EVER figure out a system to take advantage of this "sharp-public" ghost that seems to take up everyone's time.
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