Forget IND @ BAL - these are the real traps

OK,

    When the IND@BAL line came out a few days ago, I was sure it was a classic sucker bet. But in my experience, when everybody and their uncle on Covers starts screaming about a game being a trap, its not a trap. I may still take BAL just out of principle, but Im starting to think the IND controls this game and dismantles the Colts. HOWEVER, here are a couple of surefire 'trap' games that fit my criteria of go against.

In the morning:

PIT @ KC

*possibly* WAS @ DAL

In the afternoon:

NYJ @ NE

*possibly* CIN @ OAK

In the evening:

PHI @ CHI

On Monday:

TEN @ HOU

So whats likely going to happen is that IND covers by double digits and the public suffers a bloodletting in the above games by betting PITT, NE, PHI, and possibly WAS and CIN and then TEN on Monday. Most likely 4 of these teams dont cover.

I usually wait till right before kick off to put my action in as it helps me get the best read for the game and since I usually bet against the public, this helps me get the best line.

Anyway, these look like the plays Im going to take this weekend, but usually I post my official picks on Sunday. Feel free to provide any input. 

Im almost certain at least one the two (PIT or NE) will not cover.

Quote Originally Posted by mojo10:

so much talk of 'trap games' this week

I stand by my methods. This is how I pick games every week. Sunday evening or Monday evening you'll come back and read this post and pound your head on the wall for backing the teams I mentioned.

Either way, Ill resurrect this post after the fact to analyze what heppened: good and bad.

Seems to be an intelligent post Steel. I'm kinda favoring the Jets this weekend myself.

Love to see the Bears beat up on an over rated Pnilly team too.

Good luck with your palys, I'll be looking for them

The definition of trap game is subjective. However, for me, I define it as a game where one team is overvalued based on its last game or two and is matched up with another team that is undervalued based on a poor perormance or two, thus the reaction of the casual NFL bettor is to take the 'hot' or trendy team. In reality the NFL doesnt work that way - a team can look like shit one week and giant killers the next. The line may shade a bit to the hot team, thus providing some value in the not hot team. For example, tihs week, many squares are loving WAS at +11 because WAS is off a win last week and DAL looked attrocious. However, a week ago, the public perception of this matchup would be conversely different. Thus, WAS is a 'trap' this week - at least in my definition as is CIN, PHI, and TENN. If you ask most squares who covers the WAS game, the majority of answer will be WAS. The only reservation I have with the WAS game is that its usually a horrible idea to lay double digits in a division gamed.

 Also in cases where public perception is that a team "cant lose x in a row" or "will come back angry after a loss" are perfect trap games. This week PIT and NE fall into this category.

Generally, if you can identify which games are attracting the most action along with lopsided support and go against public sentiment in those games, you will be in plus terrirtory. Many dont understand what Im saying here, they just look at the percentages when determining what the public is on - the percentages are meaningless by themselves - you also need the number of wagers as well.

As of tonight, the most heavily bet games are WAS, NE, and PITT in that order. This ebb and flow will probably change some before kickoff. The SNF and MNF games will have tremendous action as well, with lopsided support.

Anyway, thats my definition of what a 'trap' is and how I identify trap games.

Well, everytime I open my trap and make myself out to be some kind of know it all, the gambling gods strike me down to provide a little bit of humility. Hopefully, that doesnt happen this week.

Leon,

    You gotta understand that in sports wagering there is no absolutes, there is no method or system that will pick winners each and every time. You just got to pare down the poor bets as much as possible and identify the smart ones, ultimately putting yourself in a position to win over the course of time. You also have to have the understanding and be comfortable in the knowledge that there are just certain games you are going to lose. You cant get mad or emotional, just disregard and move on to the next game.

     In this endeavor, you are doing good if you hit at 55%, you are an all star if you hit at 60% and you are full of shit if you claim 60%+ over any extended period of time.

     The biggest issue (aside from making poor picks) that kills squares is money management and discipline. You need to learn to establish a system where no single wager exceeds a given percentage of your bank roll, for me its something like 5%-8% and thats on a huge play. Most of my wagers are around the 2%-2.5% range. This will help you avoid days when you go 5-3 and end up with a loss.

A good site to get an idea for wagering action is Sportsinsights.

Patriots will destroy the jets,there will be no let up as usual,moss will have below average game,welker will have a career day,if you dont think the coach is licking his chops from the earlier loss you are nuts,jets will not have a prayer in this game,and brady will be in the mind set to complete every pass,pats cover with ease,and no matter how bad the eagles looked so far,they will show up against the bears.

We'll see what happens on Sunday.

 Balti SU

These fucking threads just keep coming.

You have a point.