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Forget IND @ BAL - these are the real traps

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Posted: #51

A nice Sat:  3-0 YTD 28-26-2: Hope today's a winner as well
NFL PIX:
Dallas -11 Wash  Skins had their Super Bowl last Wk.
Pitt -10.5 KC       Can't see Steelers dropping one here after last Wk.
N.O. -10.5  TB    N.O. 8-4 ATS past 12 Nov. road games

 
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Posted: #52

Ravens MLwas+103

 I played MLon the colts,

I dont mind laying the extra juice just in case Balt is in the game in the 4th But  tend to think Colts are looking to jump off to a early lead

Looking at 1st half line Colts . Colts  get off to a 14-0 leading the first half,I dont think Balt. can play from behind with them.

 
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Posted: #53
SteelRain your college parlay HIT  good write up!
 
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Posted: #54
Good stuff. Tend to agree with you.GL today.
 
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Posted: #55
Quote Originally Posted by oxmmdox:

You better check your Week 10 numbers. You actually went 3-4...


Are you referencing me? I went 4-3 on Sunday (Hit CAR, GB, WAS, & STL - lost IND, PIT and OAK) and 0-1 on Monday for a 4-4 WK 10 -1.8 UNITS.
 
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Posted: #56
Quote Originally Posted by blackmagic:

Good job in college yesterday.


Can you help me understand how you consider Philadelphia a trap game when they are coming off of two losses?  How is Philly overvalued and/or Chicago undervalued (especially considering they have only had one impressive game this season).  Thanks.



Ok, here's my thinking on how its a trap. First, its a primetime SNF game, so all the squares that burned some wagers in the morning and afternoon are going to want to chase. Even if they did well, ther'yre going to want to capitalize. Second, the only thing squares are going to remember are: Cutler lost 10-6 to SF after throwing 5 picks and McNabb threw for 450 yds in almost bringing back PHI to win at SD. Finally, they are going to look at th eline and say to themselves, "Oh my, McNabb only needs to cover 3 against this awful CHI team? Where do I sign?"

Again, Im not saying the game is fixed or anything, and PHI may outright destroy CHI tonight. But I KNOW FOR A FACT all the squares chasing their earlier losses are going to be on PHI. In that case Ill take the other side 95% of the time and more often than not, it'll be the right play.

You need to make the call for yourself, butr this is how I bet games and it works for me. So goodluck whichever way you decide to go.

 
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Posted: #57
Quote Originally Posted by SteelRain:



Are you referencing me? I went 4-3 on Sunday (Hit CAR, GB, WAS, & STL - lost IND, PIT and OAK) and 0-1 on Monday for a 4-4 WK 10 -1.8 UNITS.


Awe hell, you sure are... I was putting the CAR game the other way...

My Bad.
 
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Posted: #58
I have a play on Oak +11 and NYJ +11.5.  Parlayed em'
 
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Posted: #59

cinn looks like biggest trap game

 
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Posted: #60
For anyone that cares, for the record these are what I locked in today:

CHI +3 for 4.4 UNITS
KC +11 for  3.3 UNITS
NYJ +10.5 for  3.3 UNITS
BAL +1  for 2.2 UNITS
OAK +9.5 for 2.2 UNITS
SEA +10.5 for 1.1 UNITS
 
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Posted: #61
 
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Posted: #62
 
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Posted: #63
So some turned out to be "traps" and some didn't.

PITT and CINCI were "traps."
NE, PHI, and WAS weren't.

TEN pending.

You're picks went 2-4, but with just a more generous line for BALT, would have been 3-3.

Morale of the story? Cap the game, not the trend or the public.

I agree with a lot of what you say as I often give too much weight to what happened last week. But sometimes, it IS a big factor as teams get momentum.

This is a worthwhile angle to continue - which teams are overvalued due to last week's game and which ones deserve that "overvalue" because they really are on a roll and improving.

GL
 
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Posted: #64
Had a bad day at 2-4 yesterday -6 UNITS. The close losses with BAL and CHI really stung. Thats what I get for blabbing about my picks. tonight Im taking HOU -3 -130 for 2.2 UNITS. Hopefully, it will salvage some shred for the week.
 
 
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Posted: #65
Wrapped a bad week by losing the MNF as well. Takes the YTD to 35-33 -1.1 UNITS.
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