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Fox's 12/10 Picks and Analysis

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Jfox6546

Veteran

Joined: Aug, 2012

Posts: 2483

Posted: Dec. 10, 2012 - 12:17 PM ET #1

NFL/NCAAF: +53,100 (+106.2u) 128-77-3 (62%) ATS/Totals

NBA YTD: -2,600 (-5.2u) 50-51-5 (49%) ATS/Totals

NCAAB YTD:  +2,080 (+4.13u) 15-9 (64%) ATS/Totals

1unit= $500
Max Bet = $2000

Week 11/13-11/19:  +13,090 30-16-1 ATS

Week 11/20-11/26: +2,550 25-20-2 ATS

Week 11/27-12/3:  +8,970 18-11-1 ATS

Week 12/4-12/10:   +2,050 8-5-2 ATS

Ok so looks like another winning week everyone. That's 12 out of 14 this year. Hope everyone is cashing big! Actually was above 50% in the NBA last week as well so maybe I've turned the corner finally in that. Picks for tonight are below, should be a good game, BOL!

$2000 Patriots -4 **Max Bet**
Been waiting for this game all week. Many believe this will be a true battle of elite teams. And yes the records indicate this, with Houston only have one loss on the year. But if you look a little deeper into some of their games, including the blow out loss handed to them by the Packers, you can see some major flaws with this team. First I'd like to point out that this is the Texans 3rd road game in as many weeks. Not a good spot for them scheduling wise. They have also won 2/3 games in overtime, one at home against a very bad Jags teams and the other against the Lions, a game in which they were dominated and were given a gift by the Detroit head coach, and crazy challenge rule. If you look at the Texans schedule, overall it's one of the easier schedules in the NFL up to this point. A contributing factor to their record. Now I'm not taking anything away from the Texans here, a win is a win in the NFL, but tonight they have to play in arguably the hardest place to win in the last 5-10 years against Tom Brady. Bellicheck and Brady know what this game means. It's a statement game. It will also being chilly and breezy in New England tonight, and the last time Houston played I similar conditions, they were a turnover machine. This was the game in Chicago. They lucked out because Jay Cutler was also a turnover machine and then Jason Campbell played the second half with the same result. The Texans got the W, but it was hardly impressive IMO.

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NFL/NCAAF: +53,100 (+106.2u) 128-77-3 (62%) ATS/Totals

NBA YTD: -2,600 (-5.2u) 50-51-5 (49%) ATS/Totals

NCAAB YTD:  +2,080 (+4.13u) 15-9 (64%) ATS/Totals

1unit= $500
Max Bet = $2000

Week 11/13-11/19:  +13,090 30-16-1 ATS

Week 11/20-11/26: +2,550 25-20-2 ATS

Week 11/27-12/3:  +8,970 18-11-1 ATS

Week 12/4-12/10:   +2,050 8-5-2 ATS

Ok so looks like another winning week everyone. That's 12 out of 14 this year. Hope everyone is cashing big! Actually was above 50% in the NBA last week as well so maybe I've turned the corner finally in that. Picks for tonight are below, should be a good game, BOL!

$2000 Patriots -4 **Max Bet**
Been waiting for this game all week. Many believe this will be a true battle of elite teams. And yes the records indicate this, with Houston only have one loss on the year. But if you look a little deeper into some of their games, including the blow out loss handed to them by the Packers, you can see some major flaws with this team. First I'd like to point out that this is the Texans 3rd road game in as many weeks. Not a good spot for them scheduling wise. They have also won 2/3 games in overtime, one at home against a very bad Jags teams and the other against the Lions, a game in which they were dominated and were given a gift by the Detroit head coach, and crazy challenge rule. If you look at the Texans schedule, overall it's one of the easier schedules in the NFL up to this point. A contributing factor to their record. Now I'm not taking anything away from the Texans here, a win is a win in the NFL, but tonight they have to play in arguably the hardest place to win in the last 5-10 years against Tom Brady. Bellicheck and Brady know what this game means. It's a statement game. It will also being chilly and breezy in New England tonight, and the last time Houston played I similar conditions, they were a turnover machine. This was the game in Chicago. They lucked out because Jay Cutler was also a turnover machine and then Jason Campbell played the second half with the same result. The Texans got the W, but it was hardly impressive IMO.

Jfox6546

Veteran

Joined: Aug, 2012

Posts: 2483

Posted: Dec. 10, 2012 - 12:18 PM ET #2

All that situational stuff can effect the game (weather,SOS, crowd noise, etc,) but let's looks at what the game will come down to in the end. That's Match ups. First is Tom Brady vs. the Texans Secondary. This is going to be very favorable for Brady tonight. The Texans are out two starting LB and are likely down their best corner in Joseph, as well as CB's McLain, and Ball. CB is prolly the last position you want to be thin at when playing the Pats, especially on the road. Now the Texans were already susceptible to pass heavy teams before their injuries at Lb and Cb, and with those guys out, it's not going to get any easier. Welker will have his way tonight, and likely draw double coverage, which leaves veteran Brandon Lloyd and Aaron Hernandez singled up. So look for one of them to have a break out game. The Texans will look to get pressure on Tom Brady. JJ Watt will be the guy for doing that. Bellicheck isn't going to let one guy beat him tho. He will double Watt and chip him with Rb and TE. He will also look to run at him to slow him down with the pass rush. From a coaching standpoint, the Patriots have one of the best in the league and they will make other Texans defenders beat them. I just don't think, with the injuries the Texans have, that anyone will be able to do so. New England also know how to protect their Qb, and are 3rd best in sacks allowed, with only 19 given up this year. The Patriota are also #1 in 3rd down offense. Now the Texans are #1 in 3rd down defense, but that's partly due to the schedule and before the injuries. Should be an interesting battle on 3rd down, but Wes Welker will likely be the go to man as always.

Next Match-up: Texans Running game vs patriots run Defense. The Texans offense is based on a solid ground game, and if you watch them play rely heavily on manageable down and distance and the use of play action. With out a successfull running attack, this team Struggles to move the ball. I've seen this happen in the Detroit and Packers game. When you make Matt schaub throw more and into pass oriented coverages, he's more likely to make mistakes, and has shown to throw some costly int. The patriots defense is very good at the bend don't break scheme. They don't let up the big play for the most part and look to create turnovers. Something that they have done very well in the last month or so. I expect some success from the Texans offense, but look for them to stall or turn it over once they get over the 50 yard line and the field becomes more compact. Patriots are 7th in the league in yards per attempt running attempt on defense as well so it won't come easy on the road for The Texans. The Patriots are #1 in fumbles forced and fumbles recovered on defense.

I expect the Patriots to come out with a no huddle in the first qtr and put the pressure on the Texans early. When the Patriots get up by 10 or more, it will knock the Texans away from their gameplan a bit and they may get away from their running game and play action. If this happens we could see another game like the Texans had against the Packers. I expect the Texans to learn from their mistakes a bit and stick with their gameplan. They will fight to keep their head above water, but in the end Tom Brady will put up points and seal the game. Patriots will make a statement tonight guys.Patriots win 34-20

NBA PICKS

$500 Golden St. Warriors -4

$500 Atlanta Hawks +7.5

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All that situational stuff can effect the game (weather,SOS, crowd noise, etc,) but let's looks at what the game will come down to in the end. That's Match ups. First is Tom Brady vs. the Texans Secondary. This is going to be very favorable for Brady tonight. The Texans are out two starting LB and are likely down their best corner in Joseph, as well as CB's McLain, and Ball. CB is prolly the last position you want to be thin at when playing the Pats, especially on the road. Now the Texans were already susceptible to pass heavy teams before their injuries at Lb and Cb, and with those guys out, it's not going to get any easier. Welker will have his way tonight, and likely draw double coverage, which leaves veteran Brandon Lloyd and Aaron Hernandez singled up. So look for one of them to have a break out game. The Texans will look to get pressure on Tom Brady. JJ Watt will be the guy for doing that. Bellicheck isn't going to let one guy beat him tho. He will double Watt and chip him with Rb and TE. He will also look to run at him to slow him down with the pass rush. From a coaching standpoint, the Patriots have one of the best in the league and they will make other Texans defenders beat them. I just don't think, with the injuries the Texans have, that anyone will be able to do so. New England also know how to protect their Qb, and are 3rd best in sacks allowed, with only 19 given up this year. The Patriota are also #1 in 3rd down offense. Now the Texans are #1 in 3rd down defense, but that's partly due to the schedule and before the injuries. Should be an interesting battle on 3rd down, but Wes Welker will likely be the go to man as always.

Next Match-up: Texans Running game vs patriots run Defense. The Texans offense is based on a solid ground game, and if you watch them play rely heavily on manageable down and distance and the use of play action. With out a successfull running attack, this team Struggles to move the ball. I've seen this happen in the Detroit and Packers game. When you make Matt schaub throw more and into pass oriented coverages, he's more likely to make mistakes, and has shown to throw some costly int. The patriots defense is very good at the bend don't break scheme. They don't let up the big play for the most part and look to create turnovers. Something that they have done very well in the last month or so. I expect some success from the Texans offense, but look for them to stall or turn it over once they get over the 50 yard line and the field becomes more compact. Patriots are 7th in the league in yards per attempt running attempt on defense as well so it won't come easy on the road for The Texans. The Patriots are #1 in fumbles forced and fumbles recovered on defense.

I expect the Patriots to come out with a no huddle in the first qtr and put the pressure on the Texans early. When the Patriots get up by 10 or more, it will knock the Texans away from their gameplan a bit and they may get away from their running game and play action. If this happens we could see another game like the Texans had against the Packers. I expect the Texans to learn from their mistakes a bit and stick with their gameplan. They will fight to keep their head above water, but in the end Tom Brady will put up points and seal the game. Patriots will make a statement tonight guys.Patriots win 34-20

NBA PICKS

$500 Golden St. Warriors -4

$500 Atlanta Hawks +7.5

sabermaths

Banned

Joined: Sep, 2011

Posts: 2634

Posted: Dec. 10, 2012 - 12:20 PM ET #3

i have -5.5. would u take pats still?

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jredmond

Rookie

Joined: Sep, 2012

Posts: 845

Posted: Dec. 10, 2012 - 12:23 PM ET #4

i'm up to - 5.5 also

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mngambler

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2011

Posts: 155

Posted: Dec. 10, 2012 - 12:23 PM ET #5

I'm glad to see us on the same side..grabbed pats earlier in the week @ -3 (-125) ...good luck tonight Fox

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rydahJ05

Veteran

Joined: Sep, 2007

Posts: 2387

Posted: Dec. 10, 2012 - 12:25 PM ET #6

Like it.... BOL FOX

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philly387

Banned

Joined: Dec, 2011

Posts: 2076

Posted: Dec. 10, 2012 - 12:29 PM ET #7

Quote Originally Posted by sabermaths:

i have -5.5. would u take pats still?

Patriots win 34-20

May not still be a $2k play but would be a play is my best guess.

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Surfinnam

Rookie

Joined: Feb, 2004

Posts: 546

Posted: Dec. 10, 2012 - 12:36 PM ET #8

damn...i have 5.5 too!

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Cooler999

Hall of Fame

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 20628

Posted: Dec. 10, 2012 - 12:37 PM ET #9

I don't know anyone else on covers that does a more in-depth writeup supporting there side.

Thanks for the time you put into them.

Remember people, follow him if you want, but if he loses, don't come back girl ing and moaning. I didn't see one word in his thread that said LOCK or GUARANTEE.

Should be a great game to watch, wish I wasn't putting

on it. It would be so much easier to enjoy.

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fademebc

Prospect

Joined: Aug, 2002

Posts: 48

Posted: Dec. 10, 2012 - 12:41 PM ET #10

Jfox,

New to the forum. Nice write up on the Pats game. Tonight's game will be light rain all night and in the mid 50's. Winds in the 14-15 mph range. If anyone watched them Vs Miami that team wasn't the Pats. The played "vanilla". They will be playing tough tonight. Good luck with your pick.

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AutoPilot

Veteran

Joined: Oct, 2011

Posts: 1114

Posted: Dec. 10, 2012 - 12:45 PM ET #11

Like it !! I am on it BIG, New England at home in December are hard to beat. NE by a touchdown or more in my mind. good luck to all how ever you bet it

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CAPTAINPAP

Banned

Joined: Nov, 2012

Posts: 2985

Posted: Dec. 10, 2012 - 12:49 PM ET #12

Quote Originally Posted by Jfox6546:

All that situational stuff can effect the game (weather,SOS, crowd noise, etc,) but let's looks at what the game will come down to in the end. That's Match ups. First is Tom Brady vs. the Texans Secondary. This is going to be very favorable for Brady tonight. The Texans are out two starting LB and are likely down their best corner in Joseph, as well as CB's McLain, and Ball. CB is prolly the last position you want to be thin at when playing the Pats, especially on the road. Now the Texans were already susceptible to pass heavy teams before their injuries at Lb and Cb, and with those guys out, it's not going to get any easier. Welker will have his way tonight, and likely draw double coverage, which leaves veteran Brandon Lloyd and Aaron Hernandez singled up. So look for one of them to have a break out game. The Texans will look to get pressure on Tom Brady. JJ Watt will be the guy for doing that. Bellicheck isn't going to let one guy beat him tho. He will double Watt and chip him with Rb and TE. He will also look to run at him to slow him down with the pass rush. From a coaching standpoint, the Patriots have one of the best in the league and they will make other Texans defenders beat them. I just don't think, with the injuries the Texans have, that anyone will be able to do so. New England also know how to protect their Qb, and are 3rd best in sacks allowed, with only 19 given up this year. The Patriota are also #1 in 3rd down offense. Now the Texans are #1 in 3rd down defense, but that's partly due to the schedule and before the injuries. Should be an interesting battle on 3rd down, but Wes Welker will likely be the go to man as always.

Next Match-up: Texans Running game vs patriots run Defense. The Texans offense is based on a solid ground game, and if you watch them play rely heavily on manageable down and distance and the use of play action. With out a successfull running attack, this team Struggles to move the ball. I've seen this happen in the Detroit and Packers game. When you make Matt schaub throw more and into pass oriented coverages, he's more likely to make mistakes, and has shown to throw some costly int. The patriots defense is very good at the bend don't break scheme. They don't let up the big play for the most part and look to create turnovers. Something that they have done very well in the last month or so. I expect some success from the Texans offense, but look for them to stall or turn it over once they get over the 50 yard line and the field becomes more compact. Patriots are 7th in the league in yards per attempt running attempt on defense as well so it won't come easy on the road for The Texans. The Patriots are #1 in fumbles forced and fumbles recovered on defense.

I expect the Patriots to come out with a no huddle in the first qtr and put the pressure on the Texans early. When the Patriots get up by 10 or more, it will knock the Texans away from their gameplan a bit and they may get away from their running game and play action. If this happens we could see another game like the Texans had against the Packers. I expect the Texans to learn from their mistakes a bit and stick with their gameplan. They will fight to keep their head above water, but in the end Tom Brady will put up points and seal the game. Patriots will make a statement tonight guys.Patriots win 34-20

NBA PICKS

$500 Golden St. Warriors -4

$500 Atlanta Hawks +7.5

SOLID INFO!!!

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Quote Originally Posted by Jfox6546:

All that situational stuff can effect the game (weather,SOS, crowd noise, etc,) but let's looks at what the game will come down to in the end. That's Match ups. First is Tom Brady vs. the Texans Secondary. This is going to be very favorable for Brady tonight. The Texans are out two starting LB and are likely down their best corner in Joseph, as well as CB's McLain, and Ball. CB is prolly the last position you want to be thin at when playing the Pats, especially on the road. Now the Texans were already susceptible to pass heavy teams before their injuries at Lb and Cb, and with those guys out, it's not going to get any easier. Welker will have his way tonight, and likely draw double coverage, which leaves veteran Brandon Lloyd and Aaron Hernandez singled up. So look for one of them to have a break out game. The Texans will look to get pressure on Tom Brady. JJ Watt will be the guy for doing that. Bellicheck isn't going to let one guy beat him tho. He will double Watt and chip him with Rb and TE. He will also look to run at him to slow him down with the pass rush. From a coaching standpoint, the Patriots have one of the best in the league and they will make other Texans defenders beat them. I just don't think, with the injuries the Texans have, that anyone will be able to do so. New England also know how to protect their Qb, and are 3rd best in sacks allowed, with only 19 given up this year. The Patriota are also #1 in 3rd down offense. Now the Texans are #1 in 3rd down defense, but that's partly due to the schedule and before the injuries. Should be an interesting battle on 3rd down, but Wes Welker will likely be the go to man as always.

Next Match-up: Texans Running game vs patriots run Defense. The Texans offense is based on a solid ground game, and if you watch them play rely heavily on manageable down and distance and the use of play action. With out a successfull running attack, this team Struggles to move the ball. I've seen this happen in the Detroit and Packers game. When you make Matt schaub throw more and into pass oriented coverages, he's more likely to make mistakes, and has shown to throw some costly int. The patriots defense is very good at the bend don't break scheme. They don't let up the big play for the most part and look to create turnovers. Something that they have done very well in the last month or so. I expect some success from the Texans offense, but look for them to stall or turn it over once they get over the 50 yard line and the field becomes more compact. Patriots are 7th in the league in yards per attempt running attempt on defense as well so it won't come easy on the road for The Texans. The Patriots are #1 in fumbles forced and fumbles recovered on defense.

I expect the Patriots to come out with a no huddle in the first qtr and put the pressure on the Texans early. When the Patriots get up by 10 or more, it will knock the Texans away from their gameplan a bit and they may get away from their running game and play action. If this happens we could see another game like the Texans had against the Packers. I expect the Texans to learn from their mistakes a bit and stick with their gameplan. They will fight to keep their head above water, but in the end Tom Brady will put up points and seal the game. Patriots will make a statement tonight guys.Patriots win 34-20

NBA PICKS

$500 Golden St. Warriors -4

$500 Atlanta Hawks +7.5

SOLID INFO!!!

jredmond

Rookie

Joined: Sep, 2012

Posts: 845

Posted: Dec. 10, 2012 - 12:54 PM ET #13

Fox is best.....thanks for everything. Get me your address for a christmas card buddy......

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Jfox6546

Veteran

Joined: Aug, 2012

Posts: 2483

Posted: Dec. 10, 2012 - 12:54 PM ET #14

Driving right now fellas. I'll answer questions when I'm stopped. Prolly hour or hour half.

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MGD

Veteran

Joined: Aug, 2010

Posts: 1529

Posted: Dec. 10, 2012 - 1:24 PM ET #15

great write up and pick, with you on the GS Warriors as well. GL!!

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hapunbaby

Veteran

Joined: Sep, 2011

Posts: 1307

Posted: Dec. 10, 2012 - 1:45 PM ET #16

Jfox6546

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arubadk

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Joined: Dec, 2009

Posts: 1010

Posted: Dec. 10, 2012 - 1:48 PM ET #17

YOU DA MAN FOX ! THANK YOU IN ADVANCE1 dk

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Numero_Uno

Rookie

Joined: Apr, 2010

Posts: 606

Posted: Dec. 10, 2012 - 1:52 PM ET #18

Although no one would admit to this, the game tonight does not mean as much for the Texans as the game next week does. First off, next week, they can win the division against the Colts. Secondly, even if they lose tonight, they still have a one game advantage over the Pats and effectively a two game advantage over the Broncos for home field throughout the playoffs.

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TRAIN69

Legend

Joined: Oct, 2002

Posts: 54468

Posted: Dec. 10, 2012 - 1:53 PM ET #19

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StoneColdNinja

Veteran

Joined: Oct, 2012

Posts: 2871

Posted: Dec. 10, 2012 - 1:59 PM ET #20

gl jfox

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apeterson8809

Veteran

Joined: Sep, 2009

Posts: 1999

Posted: Dec. 10, 2012 - 2:00 PM ET #21

Texans are the most balanced team in the NFL. When GB played the Texans they were clicking on all levels. Rodgers threw for 340 yards and 6 touchdowns. Schaub threw for 0 tds and 2 interceptions. Even w/ the Packers playing lights out and the Texans playing well below average the score was in reach going into the 4th qtr.. 17-28 Packers.

Obviously you are a great capper but IMO the Texans are far too balanced on both sides of the ball to be getting 5.5 points against a team relying on one man to perform at his best to put them in a position to win.. (Brady)

I see the texans being up 31 - 27 with 3-4 minutes left in the game... Brady drives down the field to score with less than a minute left..

34-31 Patriots (don't cover)

Best of luck though!

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Jfox6546

Veteran

Joined: Aug, 2012

Posts: 2483

Posted: Dec. 10, 2012 - 2:06 PM ET #22

Quote Originally Posted by Cooler999:

I don't know anyone else on covers that does a more in-depth writeup supporting there side.

Thanks for the time you put into them.

Remember people, follow him if you want, but if he loses, don't come back girl ing and moaning. I didn't see one word in his thread that said LOCK or GUARANTEE.

Should be a great game to watch, wish I wasn't putting

on it. It would be so much easier to enjoy.

Thx bro, and I agree with all of the following,

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Bigballer

Veteran

Joined: Nov, 2002

Posts: 4004

Posted: Dec. 10, 2012 - 2:07 PM ET #23

Fox, I initially liked the Pats, but does it bother you at all that the Pats are 2-2 against teams over .500? They beat Indy and Denver and lost to Seattle and Balt. This is without a doubt the best team and best D the Pats have faced, I feel like the Pats losing Gronk and Edelman could be big in a "playoff" game of this caliber

Big Ballin' since '02

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Macwestie1

Legend

Joined: Jul, 2004

Posts: 154260

Posted: Dec. 10, 2012 - 2:11 PM ET #24

Great Info & GL JFox

By the way don't Text

& Drive mah man

What do you call an Eternal Optimist? An accordion with a beeper!

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Jfox6546

Veteran

Joined: Aug, 2012

Posts: 2483

Posted: Dec. 10, 2012 - 2:16 PM ET #25

Quote Originally Posted by apeterson8809:

Texans are the most balanced team in the NFL. When GB played the Texans they were clicking on all levels. Rodgers threw for 340 yards and 6 touchdowns. Schaub threw for 0 tds and 2 interceptions. Even w/ the Packers playing lights out and the Texans playing well below average the score was in reach going into the 4th qtr.. 17-28 Packers.

Obviously you are a great capper but IMO the Texans are far too balanced on both sides of the ball to be getting 5.5 points against a team relying on one man to perform at his best to put them in a position to win.. (Brady)

I see the texans being up 31 - 27 with 3-4 minutes left in the game... Brady drives down the field to score with less than a minute left..

34-31 Patriots (don't cover)

Best of luck though!

I respect what you are saying here, but disagree with some parts of it. The Packers were 2-3 and off a loss at Indy when they had to go to Houston. To say they were clicking on all levels is a little misleading IMO. They figured out that the Texans were weak in the secondary, and I expect the Patriots to do the same. Matt schaub had int because the Packers jumped on them early and made the Texans a pass first team. The Texans only had 90 rushing yards in that game. They couldn't establish the run and Schaub was unable to beat the Packers secondary. The Patriots have a pretty good run defense, and their offense is capable of doing what the Packers did. The texans may be balanced but they don't match up well against teams like the Packers and New England. And being on the road won't help. The texans have also let up 4.5 yds per rush attempt in 5 of the last 6 games, and if New england can run the ball tonight, that's just an added threat the Texans will have to face defensively.

Again, much repsect for how you see things here, and always welcomed. I just see it differently. GL to you as well.

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Fox's **12/10 Picks and Analysis**

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Fox's 12/10 Picks and Analysis