I'd just like to add the following:
The injury angle is unique in capping. As is the "Players Sitting" angle, which is what we have here.
The results are typically incongruent with our expectations because the spread makes up for it.
Case in point:
The Rockets last night were 11.5 point favorites over the Knicks.
Now the Rockets are one of the great run and gun teams of this year, perhaps only trailing the Warriors in terms of desired offensive prowess.
Score in 7 seconds or less. That is their mantra. That is what you want when laying 11.5.
The Knicks are on a road trip and struggling. Come in with a 3 game losing streak.
Porzingis (their new star), Lee, and O'Quinn were all rested last night.
We'd think, if quickly, the Rockets should blow them out. And for some of the game they were.
Then Carmelo went down in-game early with an inury.
So now you have Porzingis, Anthony (easiliy their two best), Lee (an adequate scorer) and O'Quinn all on the bench not to come off.
The result? Knicks cover 122-129.
Now the NBA is a different animal than the NFL. When you sit a star, teams can take the ball in their hands DIRECTLY and make up for the absence. That doesn't happen in football. So absences like losing a star QB matter more than losing Lebron in the NBA.
Still, what wasn't on the side of the Rockets because this is merely a game of 82 in December, that is on the side of the Skins, is that this absolutely is like MLB's one game playoff. Except the Giants, who are competing in the game, CARE to improve on their performance against the Eagles, but can't really say they NEED to win this game.
And it is this second layer that we bank on because the first layer or players sitting out/benched can be costly. And I don't think 7.5 (now 7 if you want it) is sufficient to compensate for this second layer of a play-in game when combined with the first layer of how many quarters (hopefully max 3) that the starters will be playing.
Repeats what I said in the OP but more concisely.