Give me Zack Wilson and P.J. Walker

Yes, I know they stink, but this query spurred me into action:

HD and line > 4.7 and n:AF and o:losses = 0 and week > 1.5

SU:   8-13-0 (-2.43, 38.1%)

ATS:   16-4-1 (5.40, 80.0%)

Home Dogs of at least 5 points that should be Away Favorites in their games currently facing undefeated opponents in Weeks 2+ win SU 38.1% and cover 80% of the games.  The average cover margin is 5.40 points.

I took NYJ +7/-108 and CLV +7/-114 for 1.5 units each.  Good luck everybody.

I screwed up and I can't change the title.  He uses Zach, not Zack.

DOG, what up DOG!!

I saw same thing with Wilson home games not with query, just off memory 

i was about to look at PJ games with panthers, TY DBW

@soup-can

That should be "Away Favorites in their next games."  Sorry about that

PJ Walker maybe.... Zack Wilson...No....jmho

HD and line > 4.7 and n:AF and o:losses = 0 and week > 1.5 and day = Sunday and line < 16

With some additional filters we can improve the winning % to 87.5 and coer margin uo to 7.26

Brilliant query DBW, will follow you here.  THX

@jowchoo

I am not so sure Cleveland and NY Jets would be away favorites in their next games.

GL 

@Joe_Cool

You are correct to be skeptical.  These are next game's projected lines based on Jeff Sagarin's power ratings:  CLV -2.29 @ IND, and NYJ +2.73 @ NYG.  The Sports Database projected lines are unreliable and I should have checked Sagarin before placing the wagers.

However, if "n:AF" is removed from jowchoo's improved query in Comment #7 CLV and NYJ would still be favored to cover:

ATS:  78-58-5 (0.80, 57.4%)  Unfortunately, I don't consider this adjusted query to be actionable because I prefer an ATS margin of 3+ points and a winning percentage of 59% to allow for potential regression in favorable queries.  Well, I am stuck with my 1.5 unit wagers.  Let's see what happens.

Eagles do have redzone issues.. 7 points seems like a lot on the road..

Browns have offensive issues which could affect there defense in 4quarters.. 

Good Luck DogbiteWilliams

@DogbiteWilliams

 Eagles gonna tush push there way to a W and cover over the Jets this Sunday.  I enjoy you're work, excellent angles and data %

I bet Philly -6.5 on Monday.  They have to many weapons.  Great defense, big linemen O & D, big time wide receivers and a strong running game and control time of possession.  Hurtz and Philly playing great right now.  

I also saw you're on Indy Colts, as am I.  I MLed them against the Jags.  Good Luck

@ChOmP

@SuckmyRick

 I have passed on the IND-JAX game as of now.

Checking another source, NYJ could well be favored @ NYG.  FTNFantasy, the successor to Football Outsiders, has NYJ ranked #23 and NYG #32, dead last.

I see SF is all the way up to -9.5 at Scores and Odds.  Heritage has taken that game off the board.  My CLV -7/-114 is a horrendously lousy line.

According the ESPN's CLV depth chart, these players are all listed as Questionable:  Watson, Tillman, Njoku, Bitonio, Pocic and Garrett.  This game will certainly test my "Injuries Are Bullshxt" theory.

My CLV -7/-114 is a horrendously lousy line

THAT would be a horrendous line.....lol

Incredible stuff dog...............................

Can you run reverse Bator method ?

Team scores 10 pts or less and gives up 30 pts or more back to back games.

Jalen carter DNP Thursday definitely keep an eye on this..

lol SF is going to KILL Cleveland. Save your money.  

Man it’s Cleveland +10 now .. you lost 3 points 

I like the Jets plus the points 

-10.5 now.

@DogbiteWilliams

 why would injuries ever be bullshit? maybe if its a nobody and the next man up is on a similar level then sure. but if a key player goes down, like a linemen or qb, this always factors into the line and power rating of the team. there can be a very large disparity from a 1st string high caliber 8 year veteran guard having to be replaced by a 2nd year practice squad with 2 career starts guard. i would only give less value to injuries if its on the defensive side (unless its important cb/lb like how bills just lost theirs and now their playoff hopes are dwindling according to many)

@DeLoreanStylez

Because the line is moved to reflect loss of talent (this SF-CLV matchup certainly shows that), and the healthy team may be overconfident and sleep through game film reviews.  Sometimes the healthy team will show up flat on game day.

I do not say this works all of the time (I only bet 1.5 units on CLV, not 4). The Cavaliers were not not better with Kevin Love on the bench with a dislocated shoulder, but they did manage to knock off the Celtics as a big road dog.

Good luck, DLS.