Give me Zack Wilson and P.J. Walker

@DogbiteWilliams

 At least you have +7. I jumped on CLE early and only got +5, didn't figure Watson is pulling the disappearing act.

@Joe_Cool

On the Team Matchbook podcast available on YouTube, Drew Dinsick didn't think there was that much difference between Walker and Watson, considering Watson's mostly poor play this season.  The line is VERY generous if Dinsick is correct.

@DogbiteWilliams

 I thought BTO was playing QB for Cleveland? 

No it's PJ Walker.

@DogbiteWilliams

 Never heard of this Dinsick guy. Has he been good?

@Joe_Cool

I'd say he's having just a fair year.  He is 2-3 ATS on his best bets.  The three handicappers are 32-26-1 overall in the last 3 weeks.

I enjoy listening to the podcasts even though I am not a fundamental handicapper and don't understand them sometimes.  It's almost all fundamental; very little technical or trends.

I miss Suuma who is not one of the featured handicappers this season.

@theclaw

Reverse Bator does not seem to work.

p:points < 10.5 and pp:points < 10.5 and po:points > 29.5 and ppo:points > 29.5

SU:  8-29-0 (-7.68, 21.6%)

ATS:  18-19-0 (0.11, 48.6%) This is pretty doggone flat.  The average line is +7.8, so be cautious either way.  I do lean Over despite Mac Jones wretched performance as a road dog.  I'll probably pass.

DT Jalen Carter will be out for week 6…

CB Darius Slay out

PHL was -7, now these talented players are out and the line has been adjusted to PHL -6.5 to compensate for the loss of talent.

If I had no action on this game, I certainly would not take NYJ at +6.5 knowing these guys are out.  +6.5 is nowhere near as valuable as +7.

There was a thread for buying points..

currently Jets are +6.5 -108 BM

this is a situation where I personally would buy the Half point to make it +7 @ -126 BM.. if I would have missed the number..

but I also believe the Jets @home as “crappy” as they are will keep this game closer than everyone thinks because of the defense.. the low total seems to hint at the Eagles being forced to run the ball more versus this Jets pass defense..I get that Jets are not as good at stopping the run but I have a feeling they are going to show up here..The Eagles do not look the same offensively and with those key injuries on the Eagles defense on the DLine weak at LB and slay out at cornerback (that’s 3 levels of defense) I’m willing to sprinkle some on the Jets ML I believe they have a shot..MLRR for sure 

too many Zachs in sports.  someday somebody will spell their nam Zaq 

@diondimucci

 I'll cue up "Zaque."

@ChOmP

I am not a fundamental handicapper, but the analysts on Daily Wager, NFL Live and other ESPN talk shows seem to agree that the loss of both coordinators has hurt PHL.  As widely criticized as Zach Wilson has been, it is possible that he can play decently against a familiar DIV rival. 

Hurts' QBR was 101.5 last season and 91.4 so far this season.  His career QBR is 92.1, so he is currently below that.  He is 19-1 SU in his last 20 regular-season starts, so a NYJ SU win would be quite impressive.

Betting the Jets 

Philly D line with eat Zach or Zack however he wishes to spell his name for lunch...

He's a problem as it is, running for his life will make it impossible. Jets O-line is way overmatched, that's where the game is played. Philly will get there points, what will Jets get? 7? 10, 13 if they get a little help from defense?

SF -10, I bet it at -5.5, Watson isn't going to beat that machine. You can pick any alphabet combo you wish to start at qb for Cleveland. PJ, DTR, NBA, whoever they want to put back there good luck.

@Killer_B

 Watson is out per ESPN.  P.J. Walker will get the start.  Congratulations on getting SF at -5.5

@DogbiteWilliams

Thanks !!!

This game has additional parameters.

I saw this on you tube somewhere, teams scoring 3 pts or less were 60% the next week.

Pats become a Bounce Factor play on team if they fail to cover.

Not all teams scoring 10 pts or less and giving up 30 or more back to back would qualify as a Bounce Factor play on team if they failed to cover.

It is possible to use BF after 2 games but I chose not to, I like 3 games minimum better 

i think the combination of Bator reverse and BF is a good combination when used together.

60% was over 20 years

That sounds solid.  Good luck this week.

@theclaw

"I saw this on you tube somewhere, teams scoring 3 pts or less were 60% the next week."

That is incorrect, TC:

ATS:  332-289-15 (0.20, 53.5%)

That is slightly profitable against a 20-cent line (-110), but I would never consider a microscopic edge of 0.20 points to be actionable.

@DogbiteWilliams

   I still like your position at +7 .  I think the Browns D can keep this close.

Why did PJ Walker not play week 4 vs the Ravens?

I am going to see how high this line goes and make sure Garrett is playing before I jump in. 

Good Stuff Good Luck

Jets secondary is decimated so why youd pick this is beyond me.

@Lucky Luciano

@warrenator

The query in Comment #1 is hitting at 80%.  I am not an 80% handicapper, so I just went with the query.