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Home teams -3 cover 38% this year

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Posted: #1
So we all know the home team is given 3 points before the line is finalized. A home team -3 means that the match-up is dead even if they played on a neutral field. I have taken a look at this years stats for home teams -3 and these are the results:

week 1  away teams   3Wins, 1 Cover, 1 loss

stl -3 home / Minn wins SU
hou -3 home / houston covers
kc -3 home  / tenn wins su
dall -3 home / SF wins su
ari -3 home / sd covers


week 2 away teams    1Win, 1 loss

balt -3 home / balt covers
indy -3 home / eagles win su


week 3 away teams  1Win

car -3 home / pitt wins su


week 4 away teams    1Win, 2 loss

wash -3 home / NYG win su
hou -3 home / houston covers
balt -r home / balt covers


week 5 away teams   1 loss

indy -3 home / indy covers



week 6 away teams   1Win

atl -3 home / chicago wins su


through 6 weeks away teams +3 are   7wins SU, 1 win ATS, 5 Loss (62% covering)


Week 7 has Indy -3, Bears -3, Lions -3, Pitt -3.  I think Cin wins SU, Miami covers, Saints win SU and Houston covers


 
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Posted: #2
Thanks 
 
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Posted: #3
Not to sure about bears and texans 
 
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Posted: #4
Bears have allowed a good amount of points in first half. Feel Miami wins first half and bears come out strong 2nd half for a nail biter win. Lots of public money on Texans which scares me a little
 
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Posted: #5

Nice  write up TY  ..  Love the Bengals SU  Don't think Miami can beat any good teams . Bears surprisingly this year isn't in that category

 

 

 
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Posted: #6
Although I appreciate the effort and data I just think this is over analyzing. Treat each game different
 
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Posted: #7

Quote Originally Posted by bryanoens:




Week 7 has Indy -3, Bears -3, Lions -3, Pitt -3. 

I think Cin wins SU, Miami covers, Saints win SU and Houston covers


Cinn does not have a prayer to cover... INDY has to be one of the best bets on the board Sunday. I agree on Miami, they will beat Bears SU....  I am not playing NO game, but if I did, I'd take Saints there too. same with Pitt-Htn, not playing, but if I did, Saints

 
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Posted: #8
Good info. I'm on the Bears already though, just don't like miami at all this year. Also took the saints. Cin/Indy scares me but Luck has played lights out, definitely could swing either way
 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by The_BigDog:

Cinn does not have a prayer to cover... INDY has to be one of the best bets on the board Sunday. I agree on Miami, they will beat Bears SU....  I am not playing NO game, but if I did, I'd take Saints there too. same with Pitt-Htn, not playing, but if I did, Saints


So you taking the saints  on the PIT HOU game?
 
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Posted: #10
Bears, Colts and Pitt cover this week. Pitt in prime time is absolutely money even with how poorly they have played. looking for the saints for plenty of RB dump offs and efficient offense and plenty to SU beat the overrated lions
 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by bryanoens:

So we all know the home team is given 3 points before the line is finalized. A home team -3 means that the match-up is dead even if they played on a neutral field. I have taken a look at this years stats for home teams -3 and these are the results:

week 1  away teams   3Wins, 1 Cover, 1 loss

stl -3 home / Minn wins SU
hou -3 home / houston covers
kc -3 home  / tenn wins su
dall -3 home / SF wins su
ari -3 home / sd covers


week 2 away teams    1Win, 1 loss

balt -3 home / balt covers
indy -3 home / eagles win su


week 3 away teams  1Win

car -3 home / pitt wins su


week 4 away teams    1Win, 2 loss

wash -3 home / NYG win su
hou -3 home / houston covers
balt -r home / balt covers


week 5 away teams   1 loss

indy -3 home / indy covers



week 6 away teams   1Win

atl -3 home / chicago wins su


through 6 weeks away teams +3 are   7wins SU, 1 win ATS, 5 Loss (62% covering)


Week 7 has Indy -3, Bears -3, Lions -3, Pitt -3.  I think Cin wins SU, Miami covers, Saints win SU and Houston covers




Week 7 away teams   1 win, 1 cover, 1 loss    1 pending

Indy  -3 home / Indy covers
Bears - 3home / Miami wins su
Lions -3 home (this line moved to a pickem at gametime) / Saints cover
Steelers -3 home / Pending


So its 2-1 for away teams covering this week with the Steelers game pending. Away teams covering 63% of spreads +3. Will bring it up to 65% if Houston covers and down to 59% if Steelers cover.
Looks like the public % has shifted more towards neutral for this game which makes me like the +3 even more! Best of luck!

Pit 19
Houston 23

 
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Posted: #12
think opening line for pitt was -4 
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by bryanoens:



Week 7 away teams   1 win, 1 cover, 1 loss    1 pending

Indy  -3 home / Indy covers
Bears - 3home / Miami wins su
Lions -3 home (this line moved to a pickem at gametime) / Saints cover
Steelers -3 home / Pending


So its 2-1 for away teams covering this week with the Steelers game pending. Away teams covering 63% of spreads +3. Will bring it up to 65% if Houston covers and down to 59% if Steelers cover.
Looks like the public % has shifted more towards neutral for this game which makes me like the +3 even more! Best of luck!

Pit 19
Houston 23



If the Lions game moved to pickem then there was no -3 home favorite in that game imo
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by totallypsycho:

think opening line for pitt was -4 

It sure was -4
 
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Posted: #15
Aye. You are correct about the pitt game. Could of sworn I saw opening -3. Well knock that off the board. Still 2-1 with lines that opened -3.
Next week has tampa -3 vs min. Love Vikings at +3. Jets -3, love the bills at + 3. And az -3 . Give me those eagles.
 
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Posted: #16
Week 8   2 win SU , 1 loss

TB - 3 - Minn wins SU
Jets -3  - Bills win SU
AZ - 3  - Eagles lose  (had the game locked until the final minute. line also shifted eagles -1 by gametime. lots of money hit the eagles)

 Away teams +3 are now  12-7 through 8 weeks covering 63%

Week 9 gives us no plays. The first time that's happened all year.
 
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Posted: #17

You have to go back many more years.  Otherwise, it's a waste of time/not statistically significant.


You can flip a coin and go 12 heads 7 tails, easy.

 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by budwiser:

You have to go back many more years.  Otherwise, it's a waste of time/not statistically significant.


You can flip a coin and go 12 heads 7 tails, easy.


 
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Posted: #19
Home teams opening with -3 are the lion's and saints. The saints line has shifted almost 2 points which should make the niners a good play to cover. I like Miami to cover the +3 and I'll also be splashing a little on the ML. Goodluck with your bets

49ers +4.5
Miami +3, ML
 
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Posted: #20
Through 10 weeks, away teams opening at +3 are 11 Wins SU, 2 Cover ATS, 8 losses. Playing away team +3 is  13-8 (62%)

Tough one losing the Miami bet.

Week 11 gives us

Houston +3 vs brownies
Detroit +3 vs cardinals

Will be dabbling on both ML's and +3's
 
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Posted: #21
Houston easily covers and wins su. The Detroit game was a phun one. It's the exact same thing that happened a couple weeks ago with eagles and az. Az starts -3 then by game the line shifts 3-4 points to favor away team. Think I'll keep a close eye on the line shifts. Either way, still + units just playing these two games if playing the ML
 
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Posted: #22
Week 12 provides us 1 play. The hot falcons are +3 at home so the play is the brownies. 

 
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Posted: #23
Boom clap. Another straight up win for the +3
 
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Posted: #24
week 13 has saints +3 opening against the steelers. The line is moving up quickly. I am going to wait closer til game time. I can see this one going to +5.5 by saturday

so far playing +3 opening underdog is 15-9 (63%) this year. 13 (87%) of those covers are SU wins
 
 
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Posted: #25
Play Eagles +3?
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