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Home teams -3 cover 38% this year

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Posted: #76
What's the play for this week?
 
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Posted: #77
Philly +3 to the Giants.
 
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Posted: #78
I reviewed the 2013-14 season using SBR and grading it on Pinnacle's opening odds. 

Regular Season:
ATS = 11-8-1 +5.4u 
ML = 5-15 -8.2u

Pre-Season
ATS = 7-7 -0.25u
ML = 7-7 +3.45u

Playoffs
ATS = 0-1 -1.1u
ML = 0-1 -1u

2013-14 Total:
ATS = 18-16-1 +4.03u
ML = 12-23 -5.75u

 
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Posted: #79
Bart those stats make this system less exciting. Maybe last year was just an off year for the system or maybe this year is an exception. Tough to tell
Going back to post #47 by steam, he found historic closing lines of -3 resulted in great numbers

"Since 2003-- Home Teams @ -3 are 117-179-30 ATS {39.5%}

Since 2009-- Home Teams @ -3 are 41-76-8 ATS {35%}

Since 2013-- Home Teams @ -3 are 15-26-2 ATS {36.6 %}"

Maybe the opening line is not the number to focus on, but the closing line is...hmm. Closing lines can be tricky since we all dont have the ability to make a last minute bet. Opening lines are also more difficult to track historically, at least I think so.

Its the final week of the year and this opening line system has fared well. So far it is 21-12 (64%) with last week being the worst week. I am going to stick with the system for this week and maybe keep a closer eye on closing lines at -3 next year.

Keeping with the original system, here are the plays this week. This is based off of SBR opening lines

Cin +3
Car +3
SD +3

I like Cin and Car so I will play the +3 and ML. SD is a huge public favorite and I have seen issues with this in the past. I will tread lightly on the SD/KC game. Good Luck to us all! Lets make some cash this weekend and roll through the playoffs!
 
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Posted: #80
Closing lines will be easier to backtest. I should have something soon. 
 
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Posted: #81
Cin, Car, SD 3 units each 
 
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Posted: #82
Magic
Bart 
 
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Posted: #83
Balt +3 5 units
 
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Posted: #84
Also riding it. Final two weeks of the season didn't end too well for the system. Still like Baltimore to come out strong. Let's make some cash.  
 
 
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Posted: #85
Quote Originally Posted by bryanoens:

Also riding it. Final two weeks of the season didn't end too well for the system. Still like Baltimore to come out strong. Let's make some cash.  
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