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Home teams -3 cover 38% this year

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Posted: #26
You got it.
Dont really like the ML but they will keep it close
 
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Posted: #27
Happy Thanksgiving 
 
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Posted: #28
BOL my friend
 
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Posted: #29
Eagles It is
 
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Posted: #30
Eagles for me !
 
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Posted: #31
Eagles   
 
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Posted: #32
Next play is NE +3?
 
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Posted: #33
New England opened at +4 so they are no play for this system. Next play is saints. They got to +5 earlier but have dropped back to +4. 
 
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Posted: #34
Got it 
 
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Posted: #35
Another 2 SU wins for the system. I don't know how to track this kind of stuff from previous years but hitting over 63% this year is marsive! If someone can look this stuff up for past years, that would be helpful. 

Next week's +3 opening is Baltimore. Seems like the public is already heavy on ravens so I expect this game to go the way the past two az -3 games went. I'm going to wait until Saturday to make my bet. System says Baltimore but the public may shift my play to Miami
 
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Posted: #36
Play Baltimore small this week 
 
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Posted: #37
Leaning small balt +3 and large Miami ML....tbd
 
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Posted: #38
Another SU win for the system. The line didn't shift so the play was still with Baltimore. Next week gives us Arizona +3 and Dallas +3.
Like em both right now. Think az will cover and Dallas wins SU. 
Making money 
 
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Posted: #39
Baltimore 
Arizona and Dallas  
 
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Posted: #40
So just like what happened with the santa Clara 49ers and saints game a couple weeks ago, the line has shifted up 2 points. Arizona at +5 seems great for a division game. The public seems split but the line has shifted a lot. Hmmm

Going to wait for a little longer but az is the play
 
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Posted: #41
And it's at 5.5 now...love it..bring it up to 7!
 
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Posted: #42
Az for 2 units 
 
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Posted: #43
AZ 
Dallas 
 
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Posted: #44
Great night we had magic! Ended up making an az second half bet to put the icing on the cake. The system is a money maker. Hopefully Dallas can bring us some more green.
The az play brings the system up to 18-9 (67%) 
 
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Posted: #45
great job!

You are going by opening lines, correct? 
 
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Posted: #46
https://killersports.com/nfl/query?sdql=site%3Daway+and+line%3D3&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++


This is for closing line, not opening line. 

To backtest the opening line system, you would have to manually go through a site like SBR. I can help is you want. 
 
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Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by bryanoens:

Another 2 SU wins for the system. I don't know how to track this kind of stuff from previous years but hitting over 63% this year is marsive! If someone can look this stuff up for past years, that would be helpful. Next week's +3 opening is Baltimore. Seems like the public is already heavy on ravens so I expect this game to go the way the past two az -3 games went. I'm going to wait until Saturday to make my bet. System says Baltimore but the public may shift my play to Miami


The following Results are based on the Closing Point Spread:

Since 2003-- Home Teams @ -3 are 117-179-30 ATS {39.5%}

Since 2009-- Home Teams @ -3 are 41-76-8 ATS {35%}

Since 2013-- Home Teams @ -3 are 15-26-2 ATS {36.6 %}

Thus far 2014-- Home Teams with a Closing line of -3 are 7-17-0 ATS {29.2%}

Pretty astounding numbers! this is a trend has been producing results for a long time now.
 
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Posted: #48
Philly opened @ -3.5 for snf. 
 
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Posted: #49
Quote Originally Posted by Bart_:

great job!

You are going by opening lines, correct? 

Yes I am using sbr opening lines. They sometimes differ from other sites.


MAGIC STEAM thank you! I know those are closing line numbers but still very helpful. Wish I would have spotted this trend earlier in season but we should all Mark it on our calendars for next year. Hitting over 60% since 2003 is insane!!!
 
 
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Posted: #50
Quote Originally Posted by Bart_:

https://killersports.com/nfl/query?sdql=site%3Daway+and+line%3D3&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++


This is for closing line, not opening line. 

To backtest the opening line system, you would have to manually go through a site like SBR. I can help is you want. 

Thank you for the site and query. Very helpful. I am going to take a stab at creating an opening line query once I get to a computer. I think magic steam gave me a good idea on what the historic data will say. So happy to have other people interested in this. You guys must like money as much as I do.  
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