I OWN the NFL WK4 …..

NFL
YTD: 8-1
BEST BETS: 1-0

CHI -3
PIT +6.5

Both CHI/PIT have hit rock bottom and media has destroyed them all week.. looking for a response on the field, it’s now or never!

———-

OPINIONS:: I feel like NE/NYJ/NYG/PHI are tough because yes heavy public against them but to me not the best lines.. rather than me guess which covers which don’t I’ll pass on all 4

for example:: NE+7 .. everyone sees the public side of TB at the window but I think the line is saying it will go honest TB… I mean if they wanted to trap TB backers why not make the line -4/-5 ??? -7 to me is HIGH and that why I can’t take NE despite public $ more so on the TB side 

To me line looks come first, lines that stink is where I like to start.. true lines despite public action aren’t as easy as they were 10yrs ago.. home dogs used to be gold now they are a 50-50 proposition 

just some FYI for your mind and inside my methods to my NFL madness .. fade or follow me either way Goodluck!!

Menace 

@Menace077

ne +7 with 95% bets on bucs it should have went to 7.5 up to 8.5or more like opening night game did, they were trying to get cowboys money there.  Now they don't seem to care.   books are gonna take a huge loss in the largest bet regular season game of the year, yet they aren't even trying to get bets on patriots.  Very similiar to ravens/pats mnf last year, where pats won su as 7 pt home dogs.

@lordbettington

 I like when they reverse the line moves.. don’t fall for that gimmick that the line only moves with $ … bs it does.  If this game had the line dropping to 6 then 5.5 I’d be on NE in a minute!!! But at 7 and no movement I fear this could be a REVERSE TRAP to trap “wise guys” … remember public isn’t always wrong or Vegas would be out of business for slaughtering them all by week4 LOLOL

  I have Pitt on the ML and +6.5.  Go Figure.  

Like the Bears also.  007 is solid on here.  BOL & stay hot...

I agree 100% with everything you said. There's actually quite a few New England backers this week, despite what the site consensus says.

Also with Tennessee, they're still giving around a TD on the road without both their dynamic WRs (A.J. Brown and Julio Jones). So it's basically going to be Tannehill and Derrick Henry out there. I think Adam Firkser is a good value DFS play in this case. 

Philly has always had competitive teams, and getting 7 at home is a lot even against K.C. who has been abysmal ATS for an entire year. So that's a pretty fair line, if not a little too high. 

Not the best week to fade the public IMO. 

The line was actually 6.5 at the spot I went to a few hours ago. Getting 7 woulda cost you -120. You're basically betting on New England's defense, which doesn't get the credit it deserves. Belichick was originally a defensive coordinator. He leans heavily on his OC for offensive game plan. I'm sure both Brady and Bill knows what makes each other tick. But it's not a game I have to play. It'll be entertaining to see what happens on SNF though. 

I actually don't put too much into line movements anymore. Especially when they're not off key numbers. I've had lines move 2 pts in the direction of my wager and lose all the time. Last night I had Utah St. +9.5 and the line moved to 7.5 before kickoff, but those bums still lost. I think I've seen three -120 lines this NFL season, and the EVEN money side has won all 3 times. 

@slamspurs

 Well said ?? 

Nice stuff, good luck 

I like your analysis

@yorosan

thanks!

@Menace077

 Wow...talk about a blast from the past...good to see you're still around Menace. GLuck today!

GL menace

@Menace077 

@slamspurs 

Interesting to take note on Post #1 & #6 & #7 . . . . much respect fellas 

@DawgHollywood

 Yeah been awhile.. he’ll I been on these boards 19yrs … appreciate you and Goodluck today let’s make some cash 

@Camouflage9

 Goodluck friend

@dubz4dummyz

 You too brother

@Macwestie1

 Much respect always like to read ur picks and insights your a great capper thx and Goodluck friend 

wow, These guys are smart, like we need some of them at langley's boom gate

@Menace077

@Menace077

@dibcompany

 Goodluck