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Im going to end the fade the "public" FAIRY TALE

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Posted: #51
[Quote: Originally Posted by jasonwhitesknee]
Don't handicap NFL.  I just bet $20 on every underdog on the board every week. 
 
BTW, blanket fade the public isn't smart but I do like reverse linemovement.
[/Quote

and you critique other people methods?? 
 
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Posted: #52
my buddy ran away with a pool he was in a couple of years ago by picking every single dog every single week
 
and from everything ive ever seen the public loves the favorite and the over...if anyone is ever in a hole and need a big game win to get out of it they go favorite and the over...9 times outta 10
 
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Posted: #53
and from everything ive ever seen the public loves the favorite and the over...if anyone is ever in a hole and need a big game win to get out of it they go favorite and the over...9 times outta 10
 
and this season both Favs and Overs are ahead in the ATS and Totals categories.
 
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Posted: #54
this is a great thread! I stated my picks on sunday  of  Green bay and Oakland   and took a ton of heat from everyone except   burningplanet, about how I am such an idiot, a retard etc. for betting against the high, high public percentages.   Did the same on monday night, and I have been betting now 5 years or so, and I see that the high public percenatages in the 80-95 percent range almost always lose.   I will continue to fade this week....
 
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Posted: #55
When everyone likes a team, because of a line that you think favors them, bet the complete opposite its hard to do at first but you will win more then you lose.
 
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Posted: #56
Thanks for all the input guys.
 
Smknyou,interesting stuff buddy.
 
Dawg,Im not a square,far from it... Im  just using this to see how the public money fairs during the season from here on in and so others can follow too.
 
College gambler,this week 2 sides attracted more than 75% of public money,both failed to cover  
 
Will be back at 8am est sunday with this weeks numbers.
 
Have a good week fellas
 
 
 
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Posted: #57
I lost the figures I had calculated a few weeks back but last season it was nearly the winning percentages for favs/dogs/push was roughly 50%/48%/2%.
 
Of the 48% of the dogs covering the spread, the won the game outright 65%ish.
 
Since the favorites have been covering a good percentage of the time so far this year, I would begin to look for more dog bets and even dog money lines. Maybe put straight bets in for the dog with spread and then half that bet on the dog ML. Im curious to see how that would pay out over the remainder of the season.
 
I would like to hear others opinions on this.
 
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Posted: #58
2008 season
Favorites/Dogs/Push/Pickems
51-46-3-2
50%/45%/3%/2%
 
of the 46 of the dog wins, 31 (67%) of those won outright. 30% of all games were won outright by the Dog.
 
Betting Scenarios:
1. Betting favorites, risking 110 to win 100
Win $5,100
Loss $5,060
Profit of $40
 
2. Betting Dogs, risking 110 to win 100.
Win $4,600
Loss $5,610
Loss -$1,100
 
3. Betting Dogs (Spread 110/100 and Half ML with avg. line of +150)
Win $4,600 (Dog Spread)
Win $2,325 (ML Dogs (+150*31)/2)
Loss $5,610 (Dog Spread)
Loss $3,550 (ML Dog ($50*71))
Loss $2,235
 
4. Betting only ML Dogs (+150)
Win $4,650
Loss $7,100
Loss $2,450
 
 
Unless someone else can find another betting angle, this gets us nowhere. Sorry
 
 
 
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Posted: #59
so 2007 and 2008 results are very, very similar.
 
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Posted: #60
Is there a free site out there that has info on the percentage of money that is on each team instead of the number of bets?
 
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Posted: #61
this week a big lean if you are fading the public has to be   Miami plus 1.
 
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Posted: #62
Quote Originally Posted by aaaa1:

Do not post that site link again. Thank you.

who the fuck are you aaaa1

let Weeks post any thing he wants

if  you like it don't read it

 
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Posted: #63
Me thinks laitiensinh is going to get moved to the penalty box with his third post smashing a covers mod.......


 
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Posted: #64
Agreed.  laitienshinh is dead man posting.  
 
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Posted: #65
Everyone should know betting percentages only is not very smart. I dont see any value in this thread because we know how its going to turn out 50/50. Theres many aspects in fading the public. The key is to pick and choose ur spots. If you just go against the "High" % on each bet that is very foolish.
 
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Posted: #66
Statz....please explain the many aspects and how you would pick and choose your spots.
 
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Posted: #67
Quote Originally Posted by MaddenGuru:

Statz....please explain the many aspects and how you would pick and choose your spots.

Well,

1. Anything lower than 70% is not considered a "fade the public"

2. Injuries. Affects the line only not the percentage.

3. Pick and choose ur spots meaning, dont bet every play. Check what everyone else is on first. You also have to watch for line movement and combine that with the percentage and determine whether its a solid play for not. Fading the public is very profitable if you do it right. These are just the basics.

 
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Posted: #68
I gotcha...thanks
 
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Posted: #69
There use to be a a username kept by  wagerline for the consensus. It was never a great record. Some years it was under 50 some years it was over. I never saw it over 53.5.

I was very successful in 05 ncaabb(you can check my past picks) by watching the 3 most heavily bet teams every day. I went with the public sometimes, I went against them sometimes. I kept an eye on which kind of teams were able to cover when they were public bets. I kept an eye on these teams afterwards which also helped me.

There is something to watching the consensus, but I think blindly betting against the public would be a mistake long term. It might work in some short term spots
 
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Posted: #70
what all the guys on this site and other sites fail to realize with all this public this and public that stuff is the fact that all us bettors are the public.  There is no special mystery group called the public.   If you want to see who the public is, then is uggest each person go stand in front of a mirror and you will see who it is.
Now as far as all these sites like sports insights that posts so called numbers from sportsbooks, you would have to be almost brain dead to believe that the books would release these kinds of numbers to anybody.  These numbers are the life blood and is no differnt then the secret ingredients companies use in the products they make. theya rent going to tell the public what those ingredients are and neither is a sportsbook gonna tell bettors any info.  Do you really believe books want to teach bettors how to win money like the sharps do?  Think about this, if everybody is betting like a sharp who is the books actually going to win money from then?  Those sites are all bogus with made up numbers.  I have said it before and i will say it again, i would bet that sports insights is owned by a group of sportsbook owners and are cleaning up selling useless info.
 
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Posted: #71
Quote Originally Posted by sysco9:

How do we even know the numbers for the public bets are even accurate?  How does that number come about anyway?  Does it only count the number of bets made at a handful of casinos in Vegas? or a handful of online sportsbooks?

I just don't see how the number of public bets can be calculated with so many different bookies/casinos to bet with.


I didn't mean how do YOU know the numbers are accurate, I meant how does ANYBODY know those numbers are accurate.  With so many casinos/bookies, you'd have to average out numbers from a lot of different sources (relying on the fact that the numbers given are even true in the first place)
 
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Posted: #72
Quote Originally Posted by cd329:

what all the guys on this site and other sites fail to realize with all this public this and public that stuff is the fact that all us bettors are the public.  There is no special mystery group called the public.   If you want to see who the public is, then is uggest each person go stand in front of a mirror and you will see who it is.
Now as far as all these sites like sports insights that posts so called numbers from sportsbooks, you would have to be almost brain dead to believe that the books would release these kinds of numbers to anybody.  These numbers are the life blood and is no differnt then the secret ingredients companies use in the products they make. theya rent going to tell the public what those ingredients are and neither is a sportsbook gonna tell bettors any info.  Do you really believe books want to teach bettors how to win money like the sharps do?  Think about this, if everybody is betting like a sharp who is the books actually going to win money from then?  Those sites are all bogus with made up numbers.  I have said it before and i will say it again, i would bet that sports insights is owned by a group of sportsbook owners and are cleaning up selling useless info.
 
    --- Well meant, well stated!  But it will go in one ear and out the other of many people. In another area, there is a post that says, "Don't tap the tank...it disturbs the fish."
 
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Posted: #73
You got to admit, though, that "the public play" has to be a factor when handicapping the Vegas lines for your own wagers.
 
Vegas already knows which side "the public" wants to take on these football games before they release anything for wagering purposes.  Network------those clowns all work for Vegas. All the iceholes on stuff like NFL Live, ESPN, NFL .
 
A 5 point spread on total objectivity can and is easily shaded to 6 or even 6.5 if it invloves a public darling like Indy, NE, SD, Dallas.
 
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Posted: #74
All interesting.  I dont pay attention to that "fade the public" crap.  I just look at each game based on other merits.  You make some good points.
 
 
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Posted: #75
Have no stats to back this up, but I "think" at least that public chalk comes in a lot more than the public dog in spread betting------certainly American football and maybe basketball and rugby, too.
 
I know both public dogs last week failed to cover....
 
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