Posted:
#1
Got a shitty line on the 49ers last week which cost me an 8.4 unit swing. This week will be better.
Colts are severely overvalued tonight. Yes they’ve been good so far this season but who have they beaten? Currently the Colts are 3-2 with wins over the Jaguars (um…), Titans (uhh….) and the Ravens.
The Ravens victory is impressive, but it was playing at home. Let’s not forget that the Ravens play exceptionally worse on the road then at home. In fact, Baltimore is a sub-par 3-7 SU on the road since the start of last year. Factor that in, and the Colts 3-2 record this year isn’t as good as it appears.
The Texans are still being perceived as a below average team because they went 2-14 last year. However, 9 of those 14 losses were by 1 possession, far more than any other team in the league. Fitzpatrick is a below average QB, but the Texans have always been a running and defense team first.
Houston also plays good at home, there 2-0 ATS there so far and in a meaningful divisional game, I like them to show up big. This is a two way race in the division and the Texans know how hard it will be to go to Indianapolis later in the season and win where the Colts are especially tough to beat. This could be the biggest game of the year for the Texans and there best shot to beat Indy.
I've heard a few times about the Texans playing on short rest after an overtime game. Let’s take a closer look. Teams are 3-18 ATS playing on 3 days rest after an overtime game. Big red flag no? Well not if we dig deeper. The Texans are playing at home, where they will be given extra energy from there home crowd. Road teams playing on 3 days rest after an overtime game is the real killer, going 1-14 ATS. Which means home teams are 2-4 ATS (still bad but not as bad) and Home Dogs being 1-1 ATS. Nothing to boast about but at least it dismisses the analogy that the Texans will be sluggish off there overtime game against Dallas.
I don’t see any other game on the Texans schedule that will be as big to them as this one. Sure December 14th at Indianapolis could decide the division, but the Texans will be big underdogs there. I like the Texans to show up tonight.
- Texans +3.5 -105 (3x)
PS: I'm a 5dimes user; however, I made an account with bovada 2 weeks ago to take advantage of their square lines. I heard they have slow payouts but always pay, so giving it a shot. They currently have the Texans at +3.5 at -105, take advantage.
2014 NFL YTD: -17.5 Units
2013 NFL Regular Season: +104.76 Units
2013 NFL Playoffs: 6-2 ATS
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