I've been playing around with some different indicators trying to possibly come up with bonus pts for the 2 PR's.
Yards per point differential is a very good indicator in SB games , it was 14-5 ATS , however, because it is much easier to be efficient scoring if a team out-gains it's opp by fewer yards, ( but that is not a good indicator of SB teams) it is 8-1 ATS when the better team in both yards per pt and total yards differential favor the same team.
But only 6-4 ATS when it does not favor the same team.
Teams that do well in yards per point but not total yards diff are not teams to back for big runs in playoffs.
And because the far majority SB winning teams out-gain opps by 35 yards or more and the stronger teams by 50 , even 60 yards or more
Of the 8 repeat SB winners since 1966 SB era began, 7 of them out-gained opps by 75 yards or better in 1 of their 2 repeat years. That's domination folks.
So that got me to thinking, could I come up with some way to find the perfect balance between out-gaining your opp and yards per point.
So I came up with this, it try's to find the team with the best balance between the two, one team was well above the league a good part of the season untill the final week ..............and that team was........................
1. Zona 13.28
2. Seahawks 12.49
3. Panthers 11.99
4. Bengals 10.53
5. Pats 10.05
6. Steelers 8.12
7. KC 8.11
8. Broncos 6.16
9. Vikes 3.94
10. Texans 2.94
11. Packers 2.72
12 Skins (-.46)
I Was not sure how to use it, how much weight it should carry in the PR's.
In SB's since 85 it was 10-4 ATS with a 6 point difference to the line.
So I back dated it in the playoffs as a PR by itself, it did guide me off a few losing games my other 2 PR's took.
The early indication may be a vaulable asset to have.
Giving 3 pts for home field my lines in this indicator......................
Seahawks -5.55 over Vikes
Packers -.18 over Skins
Bengals -5.41 over Steelers
KC -2.17 over Texans
Here's the deal since 2008...................................
29-10 SU as a 5 pt favorite or better...............12-3 SU in WC round
18-7 ATS with a 4.5 difference to the line.......................7-3 ATS WC round.
Does not count SB games because for that we need to look also at playoff only results.
The highest rated team to play wild card weekend went 6-1 SU and 6-1 ATS.
6 of those 7 teams rated 10 or higher according to this method, the remaing team last years Ravens were 8.19 as the highest rated team WC weekend and won 30-17.
The top teams remain pretty much the same as the two PR's but it does move Steelers up and KC down some.
KC is very efficient in yards per point but not good at all in out-gaining opps, only by 1.9 yards and that is not stuff SB winners are made of.