Quote Originally Posted by TheForbes777:
Yikes, Im leaning opposite on all except SEA (at +1 ML might hold the most value...RLM moving more bets towards CAR) due to key injuries/returning players.
SEA is going to obviously have a tough matchup with Norman on Baldwin.... but with CAR's other 2 starting cb's out what about Kearse and Lockett? This mismatch + motivation factor has me close to pulling trigger on SEA.
I hopped off AZ and am now behind GB because 3 of the best defenders n Zona are going to be out, but theyre still going to play an overly agressive defensive style. With out the key play makers this can burn them with Lacy and Starks being dangerous short pass options (AZ is in the bottom of the league in YAC).
DEN...if Big Ben cant launch missles and their running game is no good, how are they going to convert 3rs downs let alone score? We would be counting on Peyton Manning to lose the game, but with Pits weak secondary I can see him doing enough as a game manager to pull off a 10+ point win. At -8 I might not play this game, but definitely wouldnt touch PIT.
KC is in a terrible mismatch situation. Their pass rush is going to suffer due to Hali/Houston injuries, and without Maclin theyre going to rely on West/Ware and Kelce. This does not look good against a well rested Pats D with elite play calling backing them up. I see NE blowing them out badly.
My 2 cents, GL man and thanks for sharing your info
The problem with stats like yac is they only measure part of the story.
What if a QB throws a swing pass to the back 3 yards behind the line of scimmage and he runs fore a 8 yard after the catch but he only gains 5 yards on the play, that would be a good result for pass defense to give up 5 yds per pass.
Ave per pass measures everything a pass defenses does, it is not limited to measuring just 1 thing.
Ave per pass Zona is 9th the Skins are 26th and Rodgers performed below his ave for the season against the 26th ranked pass defense.
Rodgers ave a very mediorce 6.1 while Palmer has a monster over 8 yds per pass.
Do you have any idea how good over 8 yds is ?
Zona out-gained opps by 1.7 yards and they were over 2 yds per pass before the Seattle game which is a very, very strong number that not many teams get to.
Packers out-gain their opps by 0, and they out-gained the worst team to make the playoffs with the 26th ranked defense by 5.5 -5.2 = by a whopping .3 .
I would count that info far more important then YAC.
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