@Raiders22
With all due respect , This was posted as a thread in politics by midnight….I’ve never been disrespectful belligerent or underhanded to you or anyone in that forum ! I missed the thread also….Im not avoiding anyone & I’m happy you are make cash in Energy market hopefully you can get back what was lost in 2019, 20,21 !
@joe pockets
Not sure what you are referring to?
Who was saying you were belligerent?
I must have missed it or you can refresh my memory.
I am up even in those years. I was simply not in energy at that time. That is just a current play.
I’ll go back over there later and see what I missed.
@undermysac
There are stark differences in the efficiency numbers between those three QBs.
The other two — the dual ‘threat’ is more dual.
With Fields it is more singular. If you contain him he has not shown the ability to beat you through the air. The other two will light you up.
Watch him go through progressions, watch him under pressure. He absolutely has a hitch of sorts, gets confused reading defenses. Better receivers would help if he could find the second or third ones. But why get them if he cannot locate them.
Getting more WRs may help take the pressure off. But they need to rebuild the core of the team now. They had a decent core when he got there — they do not now.
They need to spend early picks on solid starters in more than just the WR spot. Their defense is not good enough to help a developing QB now.
I will take your word for it that he has some upside, because I respect your NFL knowledge.
I just do not see it.
For example, out of the top 5-7 or so young QBs, which ones took this long to develop? None that I can think of.
You can argue it is bad QB coaching, bad OC and bad head coaching.
But sometimes you can only do so much with guys.
Yes, Fields and Murray can win you some games — but they will always lose you more I think.
Maybe it changes.
By no means should they draft a QB.
But if they pick up Fields’ option in May — I think it will cost them 30M. Then they are stuck with him.
He better show improvement soon — or he will have the whole coaching staff looking for jobs.
Maybe he can turn it around. 
@Raiders22
Maybe we're watching 2 different teams?
Their core is almost there, it's right around the corner.
That defense is one improvement away at DE to compliment Montez Sweat.
They're solid/good enough at the DT position.
Excellent at all 3 LB positions.
Young secondary that was riddled with injuries all year are finally on the field together.
The o line is pretty good when all 5 projected starters are there. They could use more depth there just as any other team.
It's still a rebuilding process, right now. The results this year and last have been ugly. Lots of losses. But trust me, they're slowly compiling really talented young players.
As for the qb position, I guess some guys need more time than others. Clearly Fields hasn't become great immediately. Ask Geno Smith why it took him so long, you just don't know with some dudes. And I don't think that it's time to give up on Justin Fields just yet.
In his first 3 games this year, he looked awful. Looked lost, and yes had a hell of a time making reads.
Since week 4, he's #1 of all qb's in CPOE. #5 in adjusted epa per play, #6 in completion %, and #3 in cpoe+epa composite. Only Brock Purdy and Jalen Hurts have been better in composite in that span.
This is only about 3 1/2 games worth for him since he got hurt vs Minnesota. While he was out, the Bears went 2-2 with a division 2 quarterback.
They have a good core that's young.
@undermysac
I will skip the first 3 games and the MINN game but I will watch the rest of his games tomorrow and see if I see anything different.
But he is still the slowest in the league at getting rid of the ball. No improvement there from last year.
He still is making incorrect reads at a worse pace than nearly all QBs.
Yes, it is a learning curve for the QB and a lot of run-first guys did improve as they aged. You can see that with Flutie, Cunningham, Vick, even Culpepper. I think Smith has improved...but...
Yes, so much of the QB position is mental and repetition. So, the ones that we 'notice' of that type were forced to learn because the legs were not what they were. BUT there are far more that did not improve enough to stick around in order to improve.
By now he should be getting rid of the ball quicker and making better reads.
I get that injuries are part of it -- but as you pointed out they NOW have a younger core. They had a core in place before. It was not too long ago they had a good defense. Then Trubisky was mis-coached and they started a downhill trend. I wrote on this elsewhere at the time. I can even argue that Love was going to do well.
I have not looked yet this week too much. But up until last week but only AZ and PIT had a less efficient passing game than CH.
I think at least 10 teams are more efficient at running the ball, even with Fields in the game.
The receiving game is NOT that bad. They are about 7th in the league.
The pass defense is bad. That is in part to the youth and the injuries. They are somewhere around 7th worst in the league.
The Pass Rush is bad also. It was the worst in the league in the efficiency numbers last week.
The Run Defense is very good. Their WAR efficiency rating is only worse than CLV this year.
They have the 8th worst Blown Block% when passing BUT the 4th lowest Blown Block% when running.
They have 23rd fewest points earned when passing BUT the most points earned when running.
The difference in the line blocking is due, in large part, to Fields indecision on where to go with the ball and holding it too long. You cannot 'force' your line to try to hold books that long.
Since week 4 Fields is 19th in catchable% at 85.1%. Right there with Love, Pickett, Ridder and DeVito. That is bad.
His Adjusted Net Yards/Pass is 3rd. Right below Purdy and Stroud. That is very good.
During that time he has been pressured more than anyone except Taylor at 45%. Teams always blitz and pressure guys that are not good yet. When they find out you cannot handle it -- they keep coming.
Fields and Wilson are 2 and 3 in the highest sack% at 10.8% during that time but far behind Devito at 19%. That is again because of not making reads and holding the ball too long.
PE/Play he is 13th at .176 -- which is actually better than I would have thought.
His rating is 2nd during that time at 116. But this is not really an efficient rating to me. But I wanted to include it because it is better than I thought. But for comparison Purdy is 1st with 119 and Russel Wilson is 4th with 112.
His positive play% is 13th at 46.4%
The WAR efficiency has him at 18th with .5 and Russell at 23rd with .3 -- whereas Purdy is 6th at 1.3.
Last year out of all QBs that threw 300 times or more he finished 29th with a WAR of -.1.
PE/Play he was 30th with .03.
On target% was 28th at 79%.
Sack% was 12.5% for last place. Russell Wilson was next worse at 9.7% for comparison.
Last year his positive play% was 35.5% only ahead of Mayfield. For comparisons Mahomes was 1st at 52.7%
@undermysac
So, you may be onto something a bit if you take out the first 3 games. But I am not sure how fair that is with a small sample size of 2.5 games or so. I mean that is only considering 97 attempts. Whereas, Howell has 343 during that time. So, it might be sort of cherry picking when you consider the teams he played and the short timeframe.
But it is a fair point and maybe he has shown improvement since the start.
I will watch those games again tomorrow and will concentrate more on when CH has the ball. But I still question the rest of the team as well.
At this point I am not convinced I would pick up his option. Much better use can be done with that money.
I dont watch much nfl but when I catch some I make a point to not watch the bears but when I did see some play from them last year I saw a bad offensive line not sure if that has improved but fields didnt have much time when Id watch. he led the league last year in sacks with 55. he had time to throw at ohio st. and talented receivers that got separation. he made those throws look easy. with that said he hasnt been atrocious with what he's had to work with I dont think, yea a more talented decision making qb would have faired better I believe, but for going 3-12 last year and sacked 55 times you'd expect worse numbers than 17 tds and 11 ints. 7 starts this year going 1-6 and has 12 tds and 6 ints so not horrible and 63% completion also his yds per attempt and avg yds per attempt have gone up each year.
here's a little nugget. for what it's worth fields leads the league in touchdown percentage. looking at this year fields has been sacked 8th most in the league with 26 sacks and he's only played 7 out of 11 games. when I watched bagent play the o line didnt seem bad at all really I noticed he had protection.
@Raiders22
Good stuff.
And I 100% agree that last year he was a dumpster fire on passing downs where he didn't run.
I have to ask, cause you know your football as well.
If you were to move on from Fields, what other young quarterbacks(who are bad now) would you consider holding onto? As maybe there is promise that folks don't see. Would like to hear about Bryce Young in particular.
@jtoler
Those things are certainly are important and it does point out the good and the bad that you can get with a QB like him.
But these are only part of the things tha go into the efficiency numbers that really reflect a QBs value to a team.
This is obviously the most important position and the only one we track wins and losses for.
I like to look at things like Expected Points Added where someone like Herbert has 26.24 but Fields has -40.16
Points Earned per Play where Mahomes has .140 and Fields has -.060
Positive Play% where Allen has 50.8% and Fields has 40.3%
Points Above Replacement where Prescott has 74.2 and Fields has 3.2
Boom% plays where plays resulted in EPA of at least 1 where Stroud has 28.1% and Fields has 21.8%
These and various other things will go into the WAR rating where Tagovaiola has a 2.2 and Fields has a .1
Then look at things like catchable% where Cousins has 89.5% and Fields has 82%
On target% where Russell has 78.9% and Fields has 74.3%
Adjusted Net Yards/Pass where Purdy has 9.0 and Fields has 5.7
Those are not necessarily the leaders in each category -- just some to indicate some of the guys ahead of Fields in all of the key categories.
He is the most pressured QB (besides Taylor and DeVito) in the league at 45.3% for a reason.
When he is NOT pressured his WAR is .3 PE/Play .143 and ANY/A is 7.8 BUT when he is pressured his WAR is -.3 PE/Play -.038 and ANY/A is 3.2
In the 4th Quarter in a one-score game (+/- 8 points) WAR is 37th at -.3 his PE/Play is 41st at -.693 and his on target% is 35th at 60% his ANY/A is 40th at -3.9. Granted that is a very small sample size.
But do it in that situation for the entire second half in one-score games.
WAR is 36th at -.3 his PE/Play is 41st at -.323 and his target% is 27th at 70.6% his ANY/A is 38th at 1.0
Right now it seems as if the CLOSER the games get and the LATER the games get -- the worse he gets. He is also MUCH worse under pressure.
But he has had some really bright spots this year -- so, I still see some potential. But it needs to be realized by the end of this year.
@undermysac
I went back and watched the 6 games Fields played this year. I then watched the Washington, Minnesota and Detroit games again when they were on offense.
They should have won the Denver game.
To me that was his best game. But they gave up a 2 score lead.
The fumble he lost was a HORRIBLE play BUT not really his fault. He starts left and then rolls around backwards to his right to throw. I would STOP running this play. It is awful. I get why they do it because sometimes he takes it and runs left with the ball for huge gains. But this time he turned and rolled right around into a rusher and fumbled the ball and it got returned for a TD.
Then they run this same play right away in the Detroit game.
I do not like this play for two reasons: 1) I never want my QB, especially a young one, turning his back to the defense and, 2) When he does this it is VERY obvious where he is going with the ball and if that guy is covered he has to eat the ball or throw it away. If the throw is successful it never is for many yards. So, to me the risk FAR outweighs the reward. So, stop doing this with a young QB.
Then the game is tied 28-28 and after a 21 yard run to the Denver 27 for a first down they take a TIMEOUT to avoid a DELAY of game penalty!
They get to the Denver 18 and have 4th and 1. They decide to go for it instead of kicking a go-ahead FG. Wilson then takes Denver down the field to kick a FG for the lead.
The last drive he made some very good plays. He made a couple of good check downs and some decent crossing route passes. I think he even decided not to run to do this when he really had a couple of chances to run.
BUT the INT to end the game was awful. It was not even double coverage and he had time and could plainly see there was no separation.
HOWEVER, this was, to me, his best game of the year and with a 2 TD lead they should have won this game.
The Detroit game they should have won with another, more or less 2 TD lead of 12 points.
Granted, I made money on the game because I had the Bears earlier in the week at +8 and again at +10. BUT I really think they should have won the game outright.
On the first drive it was a very good start as was the first drive of the second half.
But on the second drive on 3rd and 10 they had to waste a TO to prevent a delay of game penalty.
Then on the 2nd drive he overthrew his WR in double coverage. Why not make it a much closer play? Maybe get a PI — even an INT there is fine. It would have been better than the punt — the punt was a touchback.
The drive before they kicked the FG to go up 26-21 they had 12 runs, 2 pass attempts. One pass attempt was a sack and the other one was a deep incompletion on 3rd and 4 that the defense had holding on.
That is fine, it was sort of working.
The issue I have is taking a deep shot when you did not need to even though there was a hold on the defense to let you off the hook.
Then on the last play before the FG, it is 3rd and 7.
You should be playing for a TD in that spot to really put the pressure on DET. Why run? And even since the run was working that drive — if, on 3rd and 7 — why run Johnson up the middle? Why is Herbert or Fields not running?
On 3rd and 9 was there really a need for DEEP pass to Scott — even though he almost caught it. But you’re trying to close out this game. Make a safer pass or let Fields see if he has a lane. All of that took only 15 seconds off the clock.
On the fumble and safety at the end I initially thought that was his fault when I was watching the game live last week.
But looking at it again, Fields plainly saw the guy coming BUT he saw the blocker push him upfield by him and did not see the rusher hd slipped the block.
But to me this was his next best game and they should have won it as well.
I will say that I agree with you that he has shown improvement.
The Detroit and Denver games were his best that show this.
I think the coaches need to fix the issues with making them waste timeouts by not having the plays ready for him in time.
I think they need to take the play out where he turns his back to the defense and rolls into a potential rusher.
He still has tendency to lock onto one receiver. But he makes good decisions if that guy is covered. He has done some very good check downs in a couple of the games.
He still holds the ball too long. Last year it was 3.48 seconds in last place. This year it is still over 3 seconds at 3.08 seconds. But part of that is him being able to extend plays.
In the good games he did not try to force the ball as much into tight coverage.
I still would rate him around 21 or 22 at best in QBs.
They need to look at more RPO because he runs that portion of the offense very well.
They have got to start closing out games they are winning.
Looking ahead they actually could win every game left on the schedule.
Imagine finishing 9-8 or 8-9 and missing the playoffs and knowing you gave at least two games away where you had a 2 TD lead in them.
IF HE PLAYS the majority of the games left close to the way he played these two games, I would pick the option up.
If not AND I do not pick up the option, I am NOT going after another young QB.
So, to answer your question about that — none. I am also NOT drafting one early.
What I WOULD do is get a veteran free agent to come in and push and help Fields some.
That way everyone knows the plan. If Fields falters the veteran is playing BUT he does not have to worry about his longterm situation, like he would if you brought in another young QB.
IF there is continued improvement and you feel he is your guy use the early picks for needs. Maybe get a mid-round QB.
If you are unsure grab a veteran.
One thing I just remembered I meant to say is that when your opponent throws 3 INTs like Goff did — you are supposed to for sure win that game. He should have had a 4th one but the guy flat out dropped it.
I just saw this article and the guy makes some good points.
https://us.yahoo.com/sports/schrock-bears-failing-justin-fields-130000413.html
@Raiders22
Great stuff, thanks for taking the time.
I absolutely agree about that roll out play where Fields turns his back to the defense. He's never good in those situations and Getsy keeps calling that play.
One play that stood out in the Detroit game was a 3rd n 7 where Fields threw a deep ball to Tyler Scott. The throw was on the money, but Scott eased up thinking it was under thrown. It wasn't, he should of kept in stride. That one play alone could of been a td, or at the very least a 1st down. It was at the point in the game where Detroit took over and won. That was the 15 second drive you spoke of.
A better wr would of made the play.
All in all, there has been some improvement. It's coming a little later than some people want it to, so these last few games will be big for Justin Fields.
@undermysac
Yessir. I mentioned this above -- he maybe slowed a bit. But he did lay out for it. But like I said above -- this is my issue with that 'drive':
On 3rd and 9 was there really a need for DEEP pass to Scott — even though he almost caught it. But you’re trying to close out this game. Make a safer pass or let Fields see if he has a lane. All of that took only 15 seconds off the clock.
I like the old NFL where, a fullback like Mike Alstadt of Tampa Bay does 20 battering ram rushes for a whopping 30 yards but in the process destroys the Philadelphia defense in the nfc championship game in 2002
Established in 1995,
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