The turnover differential is often decisive. Let's analyze Fumbles (FUM) and Fumbles Lost (FUML) with some queries.
PO = 1 and FUM > o:FUM and FUML > o:FUML
SU: 29-83-0 (-8.29, 25.9%)
ATS: 29-82-1 (-8.59, 26.1%)
Most playoff teams that have more fumbles lose more fumbles. That was NOT the case in the Super Bowl, but it does show how often this happens (112 times) vs. the next query and it does show how lucky DET bettors (count me among them) were against SF.
PO = 1 and FUM > o:FUM and FUML < o:FUML
SU: 10-0-0 (10.80, 100.0%)
ATS: 8-2-0 (7.80, 80.0%)
More to follow.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
The turnover differential is often decisive. Let's analyze Fumbles (FUM) and Fumbles Lost (FUML) with some queries.
PO = 1 and FUM > o:FUM and FUML > o:FUML
SU: 29-83-0 (-8.29, 25.9%)
ATS: 29-82-1 (-8.59, 26.1%)
Most playoff teams that have more fumbles lose more fumbles. That was NOT the case in the Super Bowl, but it does show how often this happens (112 times) vs. the next query and it does show how lucky DET bettors (count me among them) were against SF.
That second query just happened 10 times. It's 11.2 times more likely that the team that fumbles more will lose more of them.
SB LVIII FUM and FUML
SF: 2-2
KC: 5-1
Add "INT = 1 and o:INT = 0" and that drops the query results to just 3 games. There are 261 playoff games compiled in the Sports Database. KC was pretty damn lucky to even reach OT, let alone win.
I have presented my case. I did not watch the Super Bowl, and even if I had I'd probably have no opinion on what I am about to ask because I am not a skilled observer.
If you watched the Super Bowl did you notice if there was a clear-cut difference in how fiercely the two teams fought to recover either team's fumbles or was one team just closer most of the time?
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That second query just happened 10 times. It's 11.2 times more likely that the team that fumbles more will lose more of them.
SB LVIII FUM and FUML
SF: 2-2
KC: 5-1
Add "INT = 1 and o:INT = 0" and that drops the query results to just 3 games. There are 261 playoff games compiled in the Sports Database. KC was pretty damn lucky to even reach OT, let alone win.
I have presented my case. I did not watch the Super Bowl, and even if I had I'd probably have no opinion on what I am about to ask because I am not a skilled observer.
If you watched the Super Bowl did you notice if there was a clear-cut difference in how fiercely the two teams fought to recover either team's fumbles or was one team just closer most of the time?
Thanks for the confirmation. While I bet on KC I was rooting for SF and I was glad to see BP throw fewer INT's than PM. PM has had plenty of glory (and money from commercials) and I'd like to see BP get some more recognition, especially since his YPPA this season was so spectacular.
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@jowchoo
Thanks for the confirmation. While I bet on KC I was rooting for SF and I was glad to see BP throw fewer INT's than PM. PM has had plenty of glory (and money from commercials) and I'd like to see BP get some more recognition, especially since his YPPA this season was so spectacular.
“However if this same game were to be played 10 times SF would win 9 and by DD pts 5 times.
VERY very much an outlier.”
This is absurd. I think with the FanDuel legal era of bettors flooding the market…..this is the new norm. Watching the same game I watched and it’s either always rigged or “their” team should have won by double digits.
This was a great game between imo the two best teams in each conference. And they went and duked it out into almost a second OT.
KC had like 12 total yards in the first Q and they still piled up almost 500 total yards on that defense. More first down, more rushing, more passing yards. Better efficiency 3rd and 4th down.
Where is this SF blowout?? Yes they muffed a punt. But Pacheco also fumbled inside the 5.
I keep hearing it was rigged. Or why didn’t SF run the ball?? MCCAFF HAD 31 TOUCHES!!!!!
This was one good football game. Andy Reid made 1-2 more adjustments than the opposing coach who actually admitted he didn’t know the f’n OT rules. And 3 time SB mvp Mahomes. Made ONE more play than a 2nd year kid who was drafted 282nd.
If they play 10x it probably is 5-5. Maybe 6-4 KC. (Or even 7-3 with some of those injuries piling up). 9-1 SF. smh
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“However if this same game were to be played 10 times SF would win 9 and by DD pts 5 times.
VERY very much an outlier.”
This is absurd. I think with the FanDuel legal era of bettors flooding the market…..this is the new norm. Watching the same game I watched and it’s either always rigged or “their” team should have won by double digits.
This was a great game between imo the two best teams in each conference. And they went and duked it out into almost a second OT.
KC had like 12 total yards in the first Q and they still piled up almost 500 total yards on that defense. More first down, more rushing, more passing yards. Better efficiency 3rd and 4th down.
Where is this SF blowout?? Yes they muffed a punt. But Pacheco also fumbled inside the 5.
I keep hearing it was rigged. Or why didn’t SF run the ball?? MCCAFF HAD 31 TOUCHES!!!!!
This was one good football game. Andy Reid made 1-2 more adjustments than the opposing coach who actually admitted he didn’t know the f’n OT rules. And 3 time SB mvp Mahomes. Made ONE more play than a 2nd year kid who was drafted 282nd.
If they play 10x it probably is 5-5. Maybe 6-4 KC. (Or even 7-3 with some of those injuries piling up). 9-1 SF. smh
DBW: I watched very closely, and the effort to recover the fumbles seemed normal. However if this same game were to be played 10 times SF would win 9 and by DD pts 5 times. VERY very much an outlier.
Sure they would. But during the biggest game of their lives, they couldn’t even win.
The ball bounces one way. The turnover battle was equal. The difference was Mahomes, coaching and Kittle virtually disappearing in the Chiefs #1 secondary.
Laughable statement at best. Yet the Niners went 2-4 against the AFC this year. Maybe you need to account for the better conference in your capping.
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Quote Originally Posted by jowchoo:
DBW: I watched very closely, and the effort to recover the fumbles seemed normal. However if this same game were to be played 10 times SF would win 9 and by DD pts 5 times. VERY very much an outlier.
Sure they would. But during the biggest game of their lives, they couldn’t even win.
The ball bounces one way. The turnover battle was equal. The difference was Mahomes, coaching and Kittle virtually disappearing in the Chiefs #1 secondary.
Laughable statement at best. Yet the Niners went 2-4 against the AFC this year. Maybe you need to account for the better conference in your capping.
“However if this same game were to be played 10 times SF would win 9 and by DD pts 5 times. VERY very much an outlier.” This is absurd. I think with the FanDuel legal era of bettors flooding the market…..this is the new norm. Watching the same game I watched and it’s either always rigged or “their” team should have won by double digits. This was a great game between imo the two best teams in each conference. And they went and duked it out into almost a second OT. KC had like 12 total yards in the first Q and they still piled up almost 500 total yards on that defense. More first down, more rushing, more passing yards. Better efficiency 3rd and 4th down. Where is this SF blowout?? Yes they muffed a punt. But Pacheco also fumbled inside the 5. I keep hearing it was rigged. Or why didn’t SF run the ball?? MCCAFF HAD 31 TOUCHES!!!!! This was one good football game. Andy Reid made 1-2 more adjustments than the opposing coach who actually admitted he didn’t know the f’n OT rules. And 3 time SB mvp Mahomes. Made ONE more play than a 2nd year kid who was drafted 282nd. If they play 10x it probably is 5-5. Maybe 6-4 KC. (Or even 7-3 with some of those injuries piling up). 9-1 SF. smh
Did you even see the 1st quarter. The line of scrimmage was owned by 9ers, it was not even close. If that replicates in 10 games the game script is 180 degrees
from what eventually happened. If the PAT is not blocked , the outcome WOULD have different, but you forgot about that 1 point play. I hae watched every single
SB and that my friend was an outlier result by a magnitde. It is a travesty that CMC did not win MVP and I blame Shannihan for the loss.
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Quote Originally Posted by glyde69:
“However if this same game were to be played 10 times SF would win 9 and by DD pts 5 times. VERY very much an outlier.” This is absurd. I think with the FanDuel legal era of bettors flooding the market…..this is the new norm. Watching the same game I watched and it’s either always rigged or “their” team should have won by double digits. This was a great game between imo the two best teams in each conference. And they went and duked it out into almost a second OT. KC had like 12 total yards in the first Q and they still piled up almost 500 total yards on that defense. More first down, more rushing, more passing yards. Better efficiency 3rd and 4th down. Where is this SF blowout?? Yes they muffed a punt. But Pacheco also fumbled inside the 5. I keep hearing it was rigged. Or why didn’t SF run the ball?? MCCAFF HAD 31 TOUCHES!!!!! This was one good football game. Andy Reid made 1-2 more adjustments than the opposing coach who actually admitted he didn’t know the f’n OT rules. And 3 time SB mvp Mahomes. Made ONE more play than a 2nd year kid who was drafted 282nd. If they play 10x it probably is 5-5. Maybe 6-4 KC. (Or even 7-3 with some of those injuries piling up). 9-1 SF. smh
Did you even see the 1st quarter. The line of scrimmage was owned by 9ers, it was not even close. If that replicates in 10 games the game script is 180 degrees
from what eventually happened. If the PAT is not blocked , the outcome WOULD have different, but you forgot about that 1 point play. I hae watched every single
SB and that my friend was an outlier result by a magnitde. It is a travesty that CMC did not win MVP and I blame Shannihan for the loss.
He ave less than 4 yards a carry w a crucial fumble. No way. Contrary to the SB, Look at how Det dominated SF in first half. Happens all the time and not an outlier at all. In fact same thing happened in their first SB
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He ave less than 4 yards a carry w a crucial fumble. No way. Contrary to the SB, Look at how Det dominated SF in first half. Happens all the time and not an outlier at all. In fact same thing happened in their first SB
Having watched every single game of the Niners this year, I can say with certainty that that they chocked. The defense finally showed up but the offense completely let them down. All year, the offense was the one thing you could count on, and they did not come through. Some of it was KC defense, but most of it was self inflicted wounds.
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Having watched every single game of the Niners this year, I can say with certainty that that they chocked. The defense finally showed up but the offense completely let them down. All year, the offense was the one thing you could count on, and they did not come through. Some of it was KC defense, but most of it was self inflicted wounds.
DBW: I watched very closely, and the effort to recover the fumbles seemed normal. However if this same game were to be played 10times SF would win 9 and by DD pts 5 times. VERY very much an outlier.
No way in hell SF wins 9 and 5 by DD, not with the AOPR they had played on the road vs this KC defense
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Quote Originally Posted by jowchoo:
DBW: I watched very closely, and the effort to recover the fumbles seemed normal. However if this same game were to be played 10times SF would win 9 and by DD pts 5 times. VERY very much an outlier.
No way in hell SF wins 9 and 5 by DD, not with the AOPR they had played on the road vs this KC defense
How about the fact that this KC defense set the record, beating the 2000 Baltimore Ravens, with the most games in a season holding the opponent under 25 points.
Or the fact that KC defense faced the #2, 3, 4 and 6th rated dvoa offenses in the league all in the playoffs. These offenses averaged 28 points per game.
Spags Defense held them to 15.8 points per game.
I love the taste of Niners backers tears crying about Shanny and how they choked. Reminds me of 2020 and all those BB threads and Jimmy Gape threads crying how they blew the game and gave it to KC. Referee this and referee that.....just excuse after excuse after excuse. Salty tears....
Mahomes does that to the best of teams....
Save America
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@begginerboy
Yes BB..... only "some" of it was KC's defense
How about the fact that this KC defense set the record, beating the 2000 Baltimore Ravens, with the most games in a season holding the opponent under 25 points.
Or the fact that KC defense faced the #2, 3, 4 and 6th rated dvoa offenses in the league all in the playoffs. These offenses averaged 28 points per game.
Spags Defense held them to 15.8 points per game.
I love the taste of Niners backers tears crying about Shanny and how they choked. Reminds me of 2020 and all those BB threads and Jimmy Gape threads crying how they blew the game and gave it to KC. Referee this and referee that.....just excuse after excuse after excuse. Salty tears....
It is a travesty that CMC did not win MVP and I blame Shannihan for the loss.
Yes, it is a "travesty" that they guy who fumbled the ball on the opening drive of the Super Bowl when they were moving the ball with ease into KC RZ territory FAILED to win the MVP award. Absolute f-ing travesty it is.
Save America
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@jowchoo
It is a travesty that CMC did not win MVP and I blame Shannihan for the loss.
Yes, it is a "travesty" that they guy who fumbled the ball on the opening drive of the Super Bowl when they were moving the ball with ease into KC RZ territory FAILED to win the MVP award. Absolute f-ing travesty it is.
@jowchoo It is a travesty that CMC did not win MVP and I blame Shannihan for the loss. Yes, it is a "travesty" that they guy who fumbled the ball on the opening drive of the Super Bowl when they were moving the ball with ease into KC RZ territory FAILED to win the MVP award. Absolute f-ing travesty it is.
A complete travisty..lol
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Quote Originally Posted by kcblitzkrieg:
@jowchoo It is a travesty that CMC did not win MVP and I blame Shannihan for the loss. Yes, it is a "travesty" that they guy who fumbled the ball on the opening drive of the Super Bowl when they were moving the ball with ease into KC RZ territory FAILED to win the MVP award. Absolute f-ing travesty it is.
Mahomes had 7.2 YPPA vs 6.7 for Purdy. That's a pretty decisive edge - enough for Mahomes to have the bettter Passer Rating 99.3 to 89.3. Mahomes 99.3 would be #5 all time for a career rating, whereas an 89.3 rating is below average in today's NFL. KC had 4.3 YPR vs 3.5 for SF. A 3.5 YPR would rank 32nd in the NFL this season and 31st last season. I'd be curious as to the winning percentage ATS of teams that are -.8 in YPR, and -.5 YPPA vs their opponents. Mahomes rushed for 66 yards on far fewer carries than McCaffrey needed to gain 80 yards. Yards per Play, Yards per Pass Attempt, Yards per Rush; these stats always correlate to winning football games. These stats tend to be more repeatable too, as opposed to the often more random nature of fumbling. The Chiefs 1st quarter was mentioned, but let's not forget the 49ers 3rd quarter in which they had 3 consecutive drives without a first down, for -2 yards total.
The Chiefs outplayed the 49ers because of their superior defense performance, and Mahomes just being Mahomes. I'm not going to throw out percentages that can't be proven, but the Chiefs would win this game more often than not.
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Mahomes had 7.2 YPPA vs 6.7 for Purdy. That's a pretty decisive edge - enough for Mahomes to have the bettter Passer Rating 99.3 to 89.3. Mahomes 99.3 would be #5 all time for a career rating, whereas an 89.3 rating is below average in today's NFL. KC had 4.3 YPR vs 3.5 for SF. A 3.5 YPR would rank 32nd in the NFL this season and 31st last season. I'd be curious as to the winning percentage ATS of teams that are -.8 in YPR, and -.5 YPPA vs their opponents. Mahomes rushed for 66 yards on far fewer carries than McCaffrey needed to gain 80 yards. Yards per Play, Yards per Pass Attempt, Yards per Rush; these stats always correlate to winning football games. These stats tend to be more repeatable too, as opposed to the often more random nature of fumbling. The Chiefs 1st quarter was mentioned, but let's not forget the 49ers 3rd quarter in which they had 3 consecutive drives without a first down, for -2 yards total.
The Chiefs outplayed the 49ers because of their superior defense performance, and Mahomes just being Mahomes. I'm not going to throw out percentages that can't be proven, but the Chiefs would win this game more often than not.
Good point on the AOPR. SF played one of the softest schedules I've ever seen. They only played 4 games in regular season against teams that were ranked in the top 16 defenses, and they lost 3 of those games. Tough to go against KC defense when you're used to facing: AZ, SEA, NYG, CAR, etc.
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@Wizerguy
Good point on the AOPR. SF played one of the softest schedules I've ever seen. They only played 4 games in regular season against teams that were ranked in the top 16 defenses, and they lost 3 of those games. Tough to go against KC defense when you're used to facing: AZ, SEA, NYG, CAR, etc.
@begginerboy Yes BB..... only "some" of it was KC's defense How about the fact that this KC defense set the record, beating the 2000 Baltimore Ravens, with the most games in a season holding the opponent under 25 points. Or the fact that KC defense faced the #2, 3, 4 and 6th rated dvoa offenses in the league all in the playoffs. These offenses averaged 28 points per game. Spags Defense held them to 15.8 points per game. I love the taste of Niners backers tears crying about Shanny and how they choked. Reminds me of 2020 and all those BB threads and Jimmy Gape threads crying how they blew the game and gave it to KC. Referee this and referee that.....just excuse after excuse after excuse. Salty tears.... Mahomes does that to the best of teams....
Wow! Fantastic stat.
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Quote Originally Posted by kcblitzkrieg:
@begginerboy Yes BB..... only "some" of it was KC's defense How about the fact that this KC defense set the record, beating the 2000 Baltimore Ravens, with the most games in a season holding the opponent under 25 points. Or the fact that KC defense faced the #2, 3, 4 and 6th rated dvoa offenses in the league all in the playoffs. These offenses averaged 28 points per game. Spags Defense held them to 15.8 points per game. I love the taste of Niners backers tears crying about Shanny and how they choked. Reminds me of 2020 and all those BB threads and Jimmy Gape threads crying how they blew the game and gave it to KC. Referee this and referee that.....just excuse after excuse after excuse. Salty tears.... Mahomes does that to the best of teams....
@jowchoo Thanks for the confirmation. While I bet on KC I was rooting for SF and I was glad to see BP throw fewer INT's than PM. PM has had plenty of glory (and money from commercials) and I'd like to see BP get some more recognition, especially since his YPPA this season was so spectacular.
Are you serious with this post? Are you a gambler or a fan? Why would you bet kc, but root for san fran. Did you want san fran to only win by 1, so that your kc bet would still win. This borders on either crazy or your just not a real gambler looking to make money. The dolphins are my favorite team and hope they win, but when i bet theres no second thoughts about betting against them, if i feel the other team is gonna be the winner.
Theres just no way i would make a bet on 1 team, but really rooting for the other team to win. Just dont bet on games that involve your favorite team, that would be the best solution for you. Good luck going forward.
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Quote Originally Posted by DogbiteWilliams:
@jowchoo Thanks for the confirmation. While I bet on KC I was rooting for SF and I was glad to see BP throw fewer INT's than PM. PM has had plenty of glory (and money from commercials) and I'd like to see BP get some more recognition, especially since his YPPA this season was so spectacular.
Are you serious with this post? Are you a gambler or a fan? Why would you bet kc, but root for san fran. Did you want san fran to only win by 1, so that your kc bet would still win. This borders on either crazy or your just not a real gambler looking to make money. The dolphins are my favorite team and hope they win, but when i bet theres no second thoughts about betting against them, if i feel the other team is gonna be the winner.
Theres just no way i would make a bet on 1 team, but really rooting for the other team to win. Just dont bet on games that involve your favorite team, that would be the best solution for you. Good luck going forward.
I have repeatedly stated that I bet $7 units, and my favorite component of sports betting is the handicapping. I have lived frugally for years which enabled me to save hundreds of thousands of dollars so that I was able to retire. If I hadn't saved that money I'd still be working just like millions of retirement-aged people whose Social Security does not cover their living expenses. I am not going to blow my savings like hordes of addicted gamblers have.
SF's win would have meant more to me than that small amount of money. It was nice to see the KC queries come through, though.
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@cd329
I have repeatedly stated that I bet $7 units, and my favorite component of sports betting is the handicapping. I have lived frugally for years which enabled me to save hundreds of thousands of dollars so that I was able to retire. If I hadn't saved that money I'd still be working just like millions of retirement-aged people whose Social Security does not cover their living expenses. I am not going to blow my savings like hordes of addicted gamblers have.
SF's win would have meant more to me than that small amount of money. It was nice to see the KC queries come through, though.
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got a laugh i never read the 11th and 12th post before i piled on 
but stat was amazing
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