LMFAO. Anyone ever look at the odds of touchdown? When buffalo was around their own 40 yard line the odds of them making a Touchdown ON THIS CURRENT drive was -500 :D at that point i knew something fishy was up. And ofc, they end up with the touchdown. But instead of going for the 2 point conversion that would make it a 10 point game and thus just requiring a field goal and a td to tie the game, they just throw the extra point to keep the game at EXACTLY those 11 points the line is before the game. Boom boom, perfectly timed by Vegas and Buff bills and Saints, now they can do whatever the hell they want, they can send the game under if they want to, they can send the game over if they want to, and now they can just tilt the game to whatever side they like. Is money on Buffa? Then they will obv. tilt it to Saints. Is money on Saints? Obv. tilt it to Buffa.
This is a typical fixed game. Hope anyone is watching it out there.
Number 1, you never go for two until its the last score. Why try to make it 10 when u can score and get the 2 later. You go for it early, don't get it, and suddenly a TD and FG get you nothing. ALWAYS save the 2pt conversion for last.
Number 2, you are crying of a fix. I watched that game. I had the Saints and they absolutely dominated that game from start to finish. If not for a couple bad breaks, and shanked FG, it could have been 31-3 at halftime instead of 21-10. On top of that, did u WATCH that 4th quarter??? I saw a guy almost tear off Brees head on a facemask, and refs flag was for holding while me, everyone watching, the crowd, and the announcers were like WTF. Next drive, and coincidentally the drive that got the Bills to with 11 and u thought they should go for 2, the Bills were stopped THREE times on 3rd down. THREE times and were bailed out on two bogus roughing the passer penalties, and a GHOST pass interference which is why they scored to begin with.
My mind is boggled that u think that game was "fixed" the other way. Boggled.
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Quote Originally Posted by BostonCelticFTW:
LMFAO. Anyone ever look at the odds of touchdown? When buffalo was around their own 40 yard line the odds of them making a Touchdown ON THIS CURRENT drive was -500 :D at that point i knew something fishy was up. And ofc, they end up with the touchdown. But instead of going for the 2 point conversion that would make it a 10 point game and thus just requiring a field goal and a td to tie the game, they just throw the extra point to keep the game at EXACTLY those 11 points the line is before the game. Boom boom, perfectly timed by Vegas and Buff bills and Saints, now they can do whatever the hell they want, they can send the game under if they want to, they can send the game over if they want to, and now they can just tilt the game to whatever side they like. Is money on Buffa? Then they will obv. tilt it to Saints. Is money on Saints? Obv. tilt it to Buffa.
This is a typical fixed game. Hope anyone is watching it out there.
Number 1, you never go for two until its the last score. Why try to make it 10 when u can score and get the 2 later. You go for it early, don't get it, and suddenly a TD and FG get you nothing. ALWAYS save the 2pt conversion for last.
Number 2, you are crying of a fix. I watched that game. I had the Saints and they absolutely dominated that game from start to finish. If not for a couple bad breaks, and shanked FG, it could have been 31-3 at halftime instead of 21-10. On top of that, did u WATCH that 4th quarter??? I saw a guy almost tear off Brees head on a facemask, and refs flag was for holding while me, everyone watching, the crowd, and the announcers were like WTF. Next drive, and coincidentally the drive that got the Bills to with 11 and u thought they should go for 2, the Bills were stopped THREE times on 3rd down. THREE times and were bailed out on two bogus roughing the passer penalties, and a GHOST pass interference which is why they scored to begin with.
My mind is boggled that u think that game was "fixed" the other way. Boggled.
Sometimes you do. I know they can wait till next drive, but funny how this is now hanging at the exactly 11 points. Lets say 11 point is a typical number and therefore just a coincidence, then lets look at now how many other games that currently has a 11 point lead spread:
0. Absolutely ZERO. The only game with a 11 point lead is the game with a 11.5 spread :D
Vegas tries to keep a game this close around the spread so they know for sure that they got this game where they want it. They dont want to allow a players mistake now to ruin this. This game is in the bag for Vegas, now they can breeze and follow the other games how they go.
You sound exponentially more and more dumb every time your pea sized brain has a thought that you share here.
Have you ever played a sport in your life? You have ZERO clue about football. ZERO. And that goes for gambling, and how the game is played.
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Quote Originally Posted by BostonCelticFTW:
Sometimes you do. I know they can wait till next drive, but funny how this is now hanging at the exactly 11 points. Lets say 11 point is a typical number and therefore just a coincidence, then lets look at now how many other games that currently has a 11 point lead spread:
0. Absolutely ZERO. The only game with a 11 point lead is the game with a 11.5 spread :D
Vegas tries to keep a game this close around the spread so they know for sure that they got this game where they want it. They dont want to allow a players mistake now to ruin this. This game is in the bag for Vegas, now they can breeze and follow the other games how they go.
You sound exponentially more and more dumb every time your pea sized brain has a thought that you share here.
Have you ever played a sport in your life? You have ZERO clue about football. ZERO. And that goes for gambling, and how the game is played.
not to be a jerk, but i agree with the other guys here, if down by 12 its up to the discretion of the coach if he wants to go for 2 now or wait for the next td to go for 2.
most games went "normal" nothing wieird like the pats jets bs call in ot.
with that being said we are due for some bs. rams plus 2tds i dont even know who the qb is, but even if i did wouldnt give me an edge
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hey boston,
not to be a jerk, but i agree with the other guys here, if down by 12 its up to the discretion of the coach if he wants to go for 2 now or wait for the next td to go for 2.
most games went "normal" nothing wieird like the pats jets bs call in ot.
with that being said we are due for some bs. rams plus 2tds i dont even know who the qb is, but even if i did wouldnt give me an edge
Gg people taking the fav with the points and the over. It has gone over and the fav have won the last many many times. So ofc. it has to change at some point and why not hit as many people as possible.
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Gg people taking the fav with the points and the over. It has gone over and the fav have won the last many many times. So ofc. it has to change at some point and why not hit as many people as possible.
Gg people taking the fav with the points and the over. It has gone over and the fav have won the last many many times. So ofc. it has to change at some point and why not hit as many people as possible.
SOUNDS LIKE THERERS MORE STEAM ON THE SIDES THAN THE TOTALS...
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Quote Originally Posted by BostonCelticFTW:
Gg people taking the fav with the points and the over. It has gone over and the fav have won the last many many times. So ofc. it has to change at some point and why not hit as many people as possible.
SOUNDS LIKE THERERS MORE STEAM ON THE SIDES THAN THE TOTALS...
Since we are deep into theroy at this point here's one to consider in first half wagering in games with a heavy fav take the fav and allow for the other team to make the dramatic comeback in the second half games with more even action take the points as people will be on the edge of thier seats and stay tuned in both cases normally result in the tale of two games if u like the over take the under first half total contrarian style is this smart or dumb?
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Since we are deep into theroy at this point here's one to consider in first half wagering in games with a heavy fav take the fav and allow for the other team to make the dramatic comeback in the second half games with more even action take the points as people will be on the edge of thier seats and stay tuned in both cases normally result in the tale of two games if u like the over take the under first half total contrarian style is this smart or dumb?
Since we are deep into theroy at this point here's one to consider in first half wagering in games with a heavy fav take the fav and allow for the other team to make the dramatic comeback in the second half games with more even action take the points as people will be on the edge of thier seats and stay tuned in both cases normally result in the tale of two games if u like the over take the under first half total contrarian style is this smart or dumb?
Its smart but its alot of data entry .. Considering i don't know where they post halfs and quarters... Also you will always be paying 110 on those plays.. You have to hit a pretty high percentage too consiering ive seen -120 -130 before... Mathmatically by default its stupid,, but if your edge exceeds this cost plus your time involved its worth it to do some data entry.. Theres alot of data you can collect since there's so many games...
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Quote Originally Posted by dustyvaultz:
Since we are deep into theroy at this point here's one to consider in first half wagering in games with a heavy fav take the fav and allow for the other team to make the dramatic comeback in the second half games with more even action take the points as people will be on the edge of thier seats and stay tuned in both cases normally result in the tale of two games if u like the over take the under first half total contrarian style is this smart or dumb?
Its smart but its alot of data entry .. Considering i don't know where they post halfs and quarters... Also you will always be paying 110 on those plays.. You have to hit a pretty high percentage too consiering ive seen -120 -130 before... Mathmatically by default its stupid,, but if your edge exceeds this cost plus your time involved its worth it to do some data entry.. Theres alot of data you can collect since there's so many games...
Ok, im gonna show u something that is very very likely to happen:
Panthers will either win by 8 or more (Succeed to cover the spread) or they will lose the game Straight up (Fail to cover the spread). I dont see any way that Panthers will win with between 1-7 points, and the Falcons suceed to cover the spread but still lose the game. Because they will either blow the panthers ML money and burn some teasers down, or they will want to burn Falcons +7.5 public money. They will not let the Panthers win the game with Falcons covering.
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Ok, im gonna show u something that is very very likely to happen:
Panthers will either win by 8 or more (Succeed to cover the spread) or they will lose the game Straight up (Fail to cover the spread). I dont see any way that Panthers will win with between 1-7 points, and the Falcons suceed to cover the spread but still lose the game. Because they will either blow the panthers ML money and burn some teasers down, or they will want to burn Falcons +7.5 public money. They will not let the Panthers win the game with Falcons covering.
One of the things that u want to look at as well is that.
THERE IS NO WEEK, where ALL of the dogs cover or where ALL of the favorites cover. They also wanna keep this number @ around 50%. So therefore, when it looks like 4-5 favs or dogs are gonna cover AT THE SAME TIME, then just bet opposite! If 4 dogs have covered the first 4 games, then bet the fav to cover in the game number 5. Because it WILL happen.
For example this Sunday, Buffalo were on pace to cover, Atlanta were on pace to cover, Minnesota were on pace to cover, NYJ were on pace to cover, St. L were on pace to cover. (Not gonna count SD Chargers in coz its a pick'em, but they were on pace to cover as well with their 14-7 lead) NONE of these favorites got ahead big like 14-0 or 17-0. So what u have to know is that, ITS ABSOLUTELY 100% guaranteed that not all of these dogs are gonna keep up, now, you just have to find the ones that will and the ones that wont, in this case the black sheep was St. Louis and Atlanta and maybe Buffalo too. You see, now its 3 favs covering and its 3 dogs covering, exactly like they want it to be. 50%.
They dont give a flying about the Redskins game, whoever wants to win can win.
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One of the things that u want to look at as well is that.
THERE IS NO WEEK, where ALL of the dogs cover or where ALL of the favorites cover. They also wanna keep this number @ around 50%. So therefore, when it looks like 4-5 favs or dogs are gonna cover AT THE SAME TIME, then just bet opposite! If 4 dogs have covered the first 4 games, then bet the fav to cover in the game number 5. Because it WILL happen.
For example this Sunday, Buffalo were on pace to cover, Atlanta were on pace to cover, Minnesota were on pace to cover, NYJ were on pace to cover, St. L were on pace to cover. (Not gonna count SD Chargers in coz its a pick'em, but they were on pace to cover as well with their 14-7 lead) NONE of these favorites got ahead big like 14-0 or 17-0. So what u have to know is that, ITS ABSOLUTELY 100% guaranteed that not all of these dogs are gonna keep up, now, you just have to find the ones that will and the ones that wont, in this case the black sheep was St. Louis and Atlanta and maybe Buffalo too. You see, now its 3 favs covering and its 3 dogs covering, exactly like they want it to be. 50%.
They dont give a flying about the Redskins game, whoever wants to win can win.
Ouch, sick penalty call on the redskins. I wanna bet my house that they will go 3 and out and give Chargers the ball and give them a chance to get back in the game. Watch it happen.
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Ouch, sick penalty call on the redskins. I wanna bet my house that they will go 3 and out and give Chargers the ball and give them a chance to get back in the game. Watch it happen.
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Hope anyone is watching it out there. 
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