Good thinking on GB and Dallas!.....LOTSSSSSS of 'TANKING' today---As I always said-----NFL gotta keep it interestng up to the final game of the season...DET---CAROLINA...-----STL----BUFF were all too big of money moves during the week that made me not take any of them....I was right....Agree with you to a certain extent tonight, but don't like crazy line movements there, esp. BIG one on under,,,I think they're building some invincibility on GB, SEATTLE or DALLAS...Whatever one comes out of next week as THE TEAM, will set up a tremendous TANK JOB and the public bites on it every year...Will watch closely tonightt, then esp. next week..........I usually spot this rat every year.....That's when I pound!!!!.....Good luck!!!!
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Good thinking on GB and Dallas!.....LOTSSSSSS of 'TANKING' today---As I always said-----NFL gotta keep it interestng up to the final game of the season...DET---CAROLINA...-----STL----BUFF were all too big of money moves during the week that made me not take any of them....I was right....Agree with you to a certain extent tonight, but don't like crazy line movements there, esp. BIG one on under,,,I think they're building some invincibility on GB, SEATTLE or DALLAS...Whatever one comes out of next week as THE TEAM, will set up a tremendous TANK JOB and the public bites on it every year...Will watch closely tonightt, then esp. next week..........I usually spot this rat every year.....That's when I pound!!!!.....Good luck!!!!
Tank, Holding It's been a bit of a rough season for me but Im not going out like no chump, certainly will be looking toward you guys for incite on the wild card games, Ive always had troubles with them for whatever reason either I win one or loose both.Tonight's game is going be good fun for the whole family we have the NFLs premiere player showcased which is always entertaing both teams have motivation more than just spoiling it for the other.Denver is playing for a playoff bye and Cinci wants to clinch thier spot the sooner the better. In the beginning of the season I was bullish on Cinci ok maybe they're not the best in the league but they are the most blananced it took a long time for them to come into shape from the bottom of the barrel and they deserve some attention but sharing division with the Ravens and Pitt and now the theatrics of Cleveland keeps them off the radar it's not that people don't know they're good it's just thier unassuming and they seem to be one of the few teams that are still judged by their old reputation. The Broncos are a team of youth talent with top tier veterans being led by one of the all time greats it's difficult to go aganist them they hold wagers for hostage because even when wrong you rather be with them then aganist ,the public feels assured being on thier side they feel like they're making money that way but they aren't, trust me I know The Broncos burnt me more than any other team this season a backdoor here an outright there all in spots were they we're supposed to win really bad strategy on my part it's good to spread the love among all teams if not the favoritism will reflect in your bankroll But making sense of the Broncos dissappoints is kind of oblivious the golden boy has gone gray Payton is beat up an although his sharpness makes up for it he is a bit of a shell of his former self those balls don't whip and land like they use too even still he has broken records this year recived the accolades and admiration for his herotics and is enjoying what could very well be his last ride into the sunset this game could be a passing of the torch as I expect him to take his first lost ever to the Cincinnati franchise this isn't going to be a cakewalk to the SB they had a chance for that, now they must go thru the gauntlet to get promise land.Ginger kids of the world unite !
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Cinci ML
Lean
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Tank, Holding It's been a bit of a rough season for me but Im not going out like no chump, certainly will be looking toward you guys for incite on the wild card games, Ive always had troubles with them for whatever reason either I win one or loose both.Tonight's game is going be good fun for the whole family we have the NFLs premiere player showcased which is always entertaing both teams have motivation more than just spoiling it for the other.Denver is playing for a playoff bye and Cinci wants to clinch thier spot the sooner the better. In the beginning of the season I was bullish on Cinci ok maybe they're not the best in the league but they are the most blananced it took a long time for them to come into shape from the bottom of the barrel and they deserve some attention but sharing division with the Ravens and Pitt and now the theatrics of Cleveland keeps them off the radar it's not that people don't know they're good it's just thier unassuming and they seem to be one of the few teams that are still judged by their old reputation. The Broncos are a team of youth talent with top tier veterans being led by one of the all time greats it's difficult to go aganist them they hold wagers for hostage because even when wrong you rather be with them then aganist ,the public feels assured being on thier side they feel like they're making money that way but they aren't, trust me I know The Broncos burnt me more than any other team this season a backdoor here an outright there all in spots were they we're supposed to win really bad strategy on my part it's good to spread the love among all teams if not the favoritism will reflect in your bankroll But making sense of the Broncos dissappoints is kind of oblivious the golden boy has gone gray Payton is beat up an although his sharpness makes up for it he is a bit of a shell of his former self those balls don't whip and land like they use too even still he has broken records this year recived the accolades and admiration for his herotics and is enjoying what could very well be his last ride into the sunset this game could be a passing of the torch as I expect him to take his first lost ever to the Cincinnati franchise this isn't going to be a cakewalk to the SB they had a chance for that, now they must go thru the gauntlet to get promise land.Ginger kids of the world unite !
So Holding got banned smh guess he proved his point got what he wanted, He was a contributor not a troll it's disappointing some of the things this site allows then gets all petty with the homeboy a sad sunday for the members of this forum
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KC pk
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So Holding got banned smh guess he proved his point got what he wanted, He was a contributor not a troll it's disappointing some of the things this site allows then gets all petty with the homeboy a sad sunday for the members of this forum
HoldingXYZ sends everyone a Merry Christmas and Happy New year! He is in exile in the box. He wants all the conspiracy theorists to keep fighting the good fight with him. He hit Pittsburgh for the second largest bet of his life last week
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HoldingXYZ sends everyone a Merry Christmas and Happy New year! He is in exile in the box. He wants all the conspiracy theorists to keep fighting the good fight with him. He hit Pittsburgh for the second largest bet of his life last week
So Holding got banned smh guess he proved his point got what he wanted, He was a contributor not a troll it's disappointing some of the things this site allows then gets all petty with the homeboy a sad sunday for the members of this forum
Main
KC pk
Sup dusty. They cuffed me last year around the same time. You know covers and how they roll. Surprised they let me out lol. I posted an extra large play but its in the penalty box
Had Pitt -3.5
I managed to take screenshots of all my plays last year and this year just in case covers start deleting threads. I will start uploading all my winners via my web page. I've mastered recording data by now. It's almost what I breathe. You can name me almost any capper here that posts regularly and I can give you a rough estimate on how good they are. That's when you know you have too much information aside from your typical handicapping. I've finished the regular season with a 65% record on sides. My best so far. But my poys are 100%. The books would've hated me if they didn't cuff me week17. I have a full page of winners of mostly teasers. Had greenbay and gb 2h i knew rogers was going to pull that injury crap and Pitt as the largest play along with the under game for Baltimore/jax and the over on den/oak
I tailed a few people here on kc along with your plays dusty. I'm headed to bed now and typing from my ipad. Been killing it in nba. Books aren't really adjusting to trends. Those totals are so easy. Will be around.
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Quote Originally Posted by dustyvaultz:
So Holding got banned smh guess he proved his point got what he wanted, He was a contributor not a troll it's disappointing some of the things this site allows then gets all petty with the homeboy a sad sunday for the members of this forum
Main
KC pk
Sup dusty. They cuffed me last year around the same time. You know covers and how they roll. Surprised they let me out lol. I posted an extra large play but its in the penalty box
Had Pitt -3.5
I managed to take screenshots of all my plays last year and this year just in case covers start deleting threads. I will start uploading all my winners via my web page. I've mastered recording data by now. It's almost what I breathe. You can name me almost any capper here that posts regularly and I can give you a rough estimate on how good they are. That's when you know you have too much information aside from your typical handicapping. I've finished the regular season with a 65% record on sides. My best so far. But my poys are 100%. The books would've hated me if they didn't cuff me week17. I have a full page of winners of mostly teasers. Had greenbay and gb 2h i knew rogers was going to pull that injury crap and Pitt as the largest play along with the under game for Baltimore/jax and the over on den/oak
I tailed a few people here on kc along with your plays dusty. I'm headed to bed now and typing from my ipad. Been killing it in nba. Books aren't really adjusting to trends. Those totals are so easy. Will be around.
HoldingXYZ sends everyone a Merry Christmas and Happy New year! He is in exile in the box. He wants all the conspiracy theorists to keep fighting the good fight with him. He hit Pittsburgh for the second largest bet of his life last week
Thanks mb. Didn't have much a holiday here. Spent the whole holiday handicapping. It's 9:30 am here and I just got finished feeding the computer and handicapping nba and gonna hit the sack. I will post here or in the nba section. Stay tuned.
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Quote Originally Posted by mbialowas:
HoldingXYZ sends everyone a Merry Christmas and Happy New year! He is in exile in the box. He wants all the conspiracy theorists to keep fighting the good fight with him. He hit Pittsburgh for the second largest bet of his life last week
Thanks mb. Didn't have much a holiday here. Spent the whole holiday handicapping. It's 9:30 am here and I just got finished feeding the computer and handicapping nba and gonna hit the sack. I will post here or in the nba section. Stay tuned.
The thing is, games are there for entertainment. What is entertainment? Its high scoring games. But this STILL means that alot of game go under, its still around 50-50 for over/under for Vegas sake, but vegas just puts the line higher out there because they know NFL forces higher scoring games.
Tell me one thing, WHAT team in the league has a good defence? no1 does. Its so pathetic. There is no team in the league that plays hard defence like 20 years ago, ill say that 49ers and hawks had good d's last year, but IN MAJORITY of the times its bad offence and NOT good defence that create low scoring games. None of these teams know how to play D for garbage.
If Jaguars and Seahawks played tomorrow i couldnt guarantee you that Seahawks wouldnt allow 24-28 points which is fking pathetic. Jaguars will score as many as Vegas wants them to score, that is how it is. It can be 3 points and it can be some surprise upset that will create media hype and they will score 31 and keep seahawks to 17 or something.
Its so crazy how things change in the NFL even on just a month, you see how good Seahawks were in the Super Bowl? Do you see that? Its all gone. Its all gone in just 1 month? Tbh, Seahawks this season should have played like 16 games under and 0 over, but does it work like that? NOPE. With that D and the way they are moving the ball not a single game should have gone over, but it does. Why? Because of Vegas. Its insane that a good team definsively still gives up points like that. Why? Because they arent good defensively and/or because Vegas wants them to give up points so they dont get knocked out by people backing under for 16 weeks, which isnt in my book an unlikely thing to happen.
If NFL was SQUARE then you would see teams being 14-2, 15-1 or even 16-0 against the spread, but you ever never see that, its much closer to 8-8. And its NOT because of insane inflated lines that the numbers arent 15-1 for a team for example, because if a team is 5-0 ATS then they will never be -24.5 favs the following game for example, then in some cases it will be some fishy -2.5 or +2.5 line that will get you killed. So dont tell me its because of Vegas line changes that they wont cover 16/16 times, because lines doesnt change that much when a team is playing well (sometimes you can argue that a line should be moved more). For example when you see a team beating mediocre teams by double digits 5 times back to back, then they face one of the top 2 worst teams in the league and the spread is 9.5 for example, how is this spread only 9.5 when this team is banging mediocre teams and the other team is struggling more than the teams this good team have beaten? The most likely outcome of such a game is the favorite to win but failing to cover, a game like this will typically end with a 7 point win.
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The thing is, games are there for entertainment. What is entertainment? Its high scoring games. But this STILL means that alot of game go under, its still around 50-50 for over/under for Vegas sake, but vegas just puts the line higher out there because they know NFL forces higher scoring games.
Tell me one thing, WHAT team in the league has a good defence? no1 does. Its so pathetic. There is no team in the league that plays hard defence like 20 years ago, ill say that 49ers and hawks had good d's last year, but IN MAJORITY of the times its bad offence and NOT good defence that create low scoring games. None of these teams know how to play D for garbage.
If Jaguars and Seahawks played tomorrow i couldnt guarantee you that Seahawks wouldnt allow 24-28 points which is fking pathetic. Jaguars will score as many as Vegas wants them to score, that is how it is. It can be 3 points and it can be some surprise upset that will create media hype and they will score 31 and keep seahawks to 17 or something.
Its so crazy how things change in the NFL even on just a month, you see how good Seahawks were in the Super Bowl? Do you see that? Its all gone. Its all gone in just 1 month? Tbh, Seahawks this season should have played like 16 games under and 0 over, but does it work like that? NOPE. With that D and the way they are moving the ball not a single game should have gone over, but it does. Why? Because of Vegas. Its insane that a good team definsively still gives up points like that. Why? Because they arent good defensively and/or because Vegas wants them to give up points so they dont get knocked out by people backing under for 16 weeks, which isnt in my book an unlikely thing to happen.
If NFL was SQUARE then you would see teams being 14-2, 15-1 or even 16-0 against the spread, but you ever never see that, its much closer to 8-8. And its NOT because of insane inflated lines that the numbers arent 15-1 for a team for example, because if a team is 5-0 ATS then they will never be -24.5 favs the following game for example, then in some cases it will be some fishy -2.5 or +2.5 line that will get you killed. So dont tell me its because of Vegas line changes that they wont cover 16/16 times, because lines doesnt change that much when a team is playing well (sometimes you can argue that a line should be moved more). For example when you see a team beating mediocre teams by double digits 5 times back to back, then they face one of the top 2 worst teams in the league and the spread is 9.5 for example, how is this spread only 9.5 when this team is banging mediocre teams and the other team is struggling more than the teams this good team have beaten? The most likely outcome of such a game is the favorite to win but failing to cover, a game like this will typically end with a 7 point win.
Car+1/2 & BAL +9 for 10 units , I may hedge out on this one and take ARI,, But teams where the superbowl is being hosted usually never make the playoffs,, and when they do,, they get knocked out in the first round... I see Cam and his defense showing up as he is considered an elite but not so much prime time... Bal is a fade play we all know that...
Asomugha ,
I agree with most of what u have said... Theres a good amount of teams with good Defense,, the hard part is you dont know when they are going to show up... But the lines do dictate the game most of the times... You know how many games between 39-42 have gone under the total this year? About 66%... Most of the times Defense shows up the second part of the season so they are not banged up come playoff time... So it is critical to watch for injuries and who is banged up... When you see a dominate defense the first half,, i mean by score and by Facial expression,, you bang the 2H under... Thats what i do... You can tell alot about a team just watching the attitude they bring on the field... Seahawks and Car is finally looking like last year... Whether or not they are saving themselves or just plain lazy or ,, due to injuries i dont know,, but the coaching didnt change,,, they can still turn on that switch... Or atleast we know they have one... Look at Manziel LOL,,, now look at what Tom brady said,, if you enter this league as a douche,, that's what happends and Cincy handed it to em...
Dusty stay hot!!
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Midnight,, i took an early play as a teaser
Car+1/2 & BAL +9 for 10 units , I may hedge out on this one and take ARI,, But teams where the superbowl is being hosted usually never make the playoffs,, and when they do,, they get knocked out in the first round... I see Cam and his defense showing up as he is considered an elite but not so much prime time... Bal is a fade play we all know that...
Asomugha ,
I agree with most of what u have said... Theres a good amount of teams with good Defense,, the hard part is you dont know when they are going to show up... But the lines do dictate the game most of the times... You know how many games between 39-42 have gone under the total this year? About 66%... Most of the times Defense shows up the second part of the season so they are not banged up come playoff time... So it is critical to watch for injuries and who is banged up... When you see a dominate defense the first half,, i mean by score and by Facial expression,, you bang the 2H under... Thats what i do... You can tell alot about a team just watching the attitude they bring on the field... Seahawks and Car is finally looking like last year... Whether or not they are saving themselves or just plain lazy or ,, due to injuries i dont know,, but the coaching didnt change,,, they can still turn on that switch... Or atleast we know they have one... Look at Manziel LOL,,, now look at what Tom brady said,, if you enter this league as a douche,, that's what happends and Cincy handed it to em...
Gl Holding. What things u looking @ when capping NBA? is just straight against the public / obvious pick or is there something more to it?
For Nba i use roughly 3 strategies,, First i cross check my numbers,, each night i feed the system with all of the outcomes and i use this as one filter,,, then i look at travel times,, Then i look for motivation,,, typically i love taking smaller market teams,,, Your charlottes and milwaukees for instance,,, and lately they havent been adjusting,,, simply because the public is just not into these teams it seems.... Also i take alot of overs early on to get the best numbers... And under the closing lines.... If you can get a soft book,, you can easily pick these off assuming you have a good idea of what the true line should be...
Third filter i use is having a seperate spread sheet for each team...
Handycapping NBA is fairly easy,, just know how to manage your bankroll to last you through the season,, sample size is so much greater,, so sometimes be happy with a small loss or even a small win.. Then i look for public perception and whether or not its factored into the line... Very important one... Or why isnt a book moving at all... Right now i can tell you those totals are no where near adjust,, and to top it off alot of these games are going ovetime lol ... So when i put all this together i have marquee teams,, small market teams,, situational perspective mostly ,, but the hardest part is data entry,, i hate it ,, tired of it 10 hours per day every day,, but that's how my plays originate...
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Quote Originally Posted by Asomugha:
Gl Holding. What things u looking @ when capping NBA? is just straight against the public / obvious pick or is there something more to it?
For Nba i use roughly 3 strategies,, First i cross check my numbers,, each night i feed the system with all of the outcomes and i use this as one filter,,, then i look at travel times,, Then i look for motivation,,, typically i love taking smaller market teams,,, Your charlottes and milwaukees for instance,,, and lately they havent been adjusting,,, simply because the public is just not into these teams it seems.... Also i take alot of overs early on to get the best numbers... And under the closing lines.... If you can get a soft book,, you can easily pick these off assuming you have a good idea of what the true line should be...
Third filter i use is having a seperate spread sheet for each team...
Handycapping NBA is fairly easy,, just know how to manage your bankroll to last you through the season,, sample size is so much greater,, so sometimes be happy with a small loss or even a small win.. Then i look for public perception and whether or not its factored into the line... Very important one... Or why isnt a book moving at all... Right now i can tell you those totals are no where near adjust,, and to top it off alot of these games are going ovetime lol ... So when i put all this together i have marquee teams,, small market teams,, situational perspective mostly ,, but the hardest part is data entry,, i hate it ,, tired of it 10 hours per day every day,, but that's how my plays originate...
Then when you watch enough games,, you will notice certain tendancies,, like for instance i've noticed the bulls are a good second half team at home... Its like they play hero ball for the fans,,, .... And alot of those tendacies like old age or young teams,, it will affect the scoring,, but the mentality of these teams could be so different night in night out... Look at San antonio those teams are good to fade early on to fade because they won the championship just like the nfl.,,, they are overvalued and the motivation isnt always there unless they have the talent and if its warranted,, SA has been scrimaging their bench,,, the coach swears he can win another championship solely with his bench LOL... But there's no doubt in my mind that the SPURs are the best and the most intellegent team there is by a huge margin... This team can tire you out by passing and moving the ball,,, knock in the 3 at will,, Other than phil jackson and Papa,, all the rest of the coaches are a joke,, no where near those levels...
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Then when you watch enough games,, you will notice certain tendancies,, like for instance i've noticed the bulls are a good second half team at home... Its like they play hero ball for the fans,,, .... And alot of those tendacies like old age or young teams,, it will affect the scoring,, but the mentality of these teams could be so different night in night out... Look at San antonio those teams are good to fade early on to fade because they won the championship just like the nfl.,,, they are overvalued and the motivation isnt always there unless they have the talent and if its warranted,, SA has been scrimaging their bench,,, the coach swears he can win another championship solely with his bench LOL... But there's no doubt in my mind that the SPURs are the best and the most intellegent team there is by a huge margin... This team can tire you out by passing and moving the ball,,, knock in the 3 at will,, Other than phil jackson and Papa,, all the rest of the coaches are a joke,, no where near those levels...
For Nba i use roughly 3 strategies,, First i cross check my numbers,, each night i feed the system with all of the outcomes and i use this as one filter,,, then i look at travel times,, Then i look for motivation,,, typically i love taking smaller market teams,,, Your charlottes and milwaukees for instance,,, and lately they havent been adjusting,,, simply because the public is just not into these teams it seems.... Also i take alot of overs early on to get the best numbers... And under the closing lines.... If you can get a soft book,, you can easily pick these off assuming you have a good idea of what the true line should be...
Third filter i use is having a seperate spread sheet for each team...
Handycapping NBA is fairly easy,, just know how to manage your bankroll to last you through the season,, sample size is so much greater,, so sometimes be happy with a small loss or even a small win.. Then i look for public perception and whether or not its factored into the line... Very important one... Or why isnt a book moving at all... Right now i can tell you those totals are no where near adjust,, and to top it off alot of these games are going ovetime lol ... So when i put all this together i have marquee teams,, small market teams,, situational perspective mostly ,, but the hardest part is data entry,, i hate it ,, tired of it 10 hours per day every day,, but that's how my plays originate...
Whataya mean when u say u feed the system with all of ur outcomes?
Could i have a look at ur spread sheet u have for each team or u wanna keep it to urself?
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Quote Originally Posted by HoldingXYZ:
For Nba i use roughly 3 strategies,, First i cross check my numbers,, each night i feed the system with all of the outcomes and i use this as one filter,,, then i look at travel times,, Then i look for motivation,,, typically i love taking smaller market teams,,, Your charlottes and milwaukees for instance,,, and lately they havent been adjusting,,, simply because the public is just not into these teams it seems.... Also i take alot of overs early on to get the best numbers... And under the closing lines.... If you can get a soft book,, you can easily pick these off assuming you have a good idea of what the true line should be...
Third filter i use is having a seperate spread sheet for each team...
Handycapping NBA is fairly easy,, just know how to manage your bankroll to last you through the season,, sample size is so much greater,, so sometimes be happy with a small loss or even a small win.. Then i look for public perception and whether or not its factored into the line... Very important one... Or why isnt a book moving at all... Right now i can tell you those totals are no where near adjust,, and to top it off alot of these games are going ovetime lol ... So when i put all this together i have marquee teams,, small market teams,, situational perspective mostly ,, but the hardest part is data entry,, i hate it ,, tired of it 10 hours per day every day,, but that's how my plays originate...
Whataya mean when u say u feed the system with all of ur outcomes?
Could i have a look at ur spread sheet u have for each team or u wanna keep it to urself?
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