Quote Originally Posted by mbialowas:
HoldingXYZ, there are some very suspicious lines for next weekend. Vegas setting a trap possibly? Looks like the want a public bloodbath
What do you think is suspicious about them? You think public hammers the faves? Very possible, especially with Denver, Pats and Seattle. Dallas always gets some action due to the scope of their fan-base. But, another angle is that the NFL fans just saw all four road teams play, and get a win. So their perception of them could be skewed by that some. People tend to put too much stock a team's last game sometimes.
Last 8 years, home teams are 19-13 SU and 13-19 ATS in this round. So definitely some dogs doing damage, and definitely games that the home team wins and doesn't cover.
The four home teams this year are a ridiculous 30-2 SU. One of those losses was Bills @ Pats, a game that NE completely mailed in as it was meaningless for them. So of the four, really only 1 legit loss all season, that was Dallas @ Seattle.
The biggest spread is Seattle at -10.5/11. Can Carolina keep that game close? Their D is pretty solid, but this is not a 3rd string QB and no running game, far from it. They'll have to play a near perfect game to stay in it, and I just don't see that out of a Cam Newton led offense, especially in that environment. But definitely not ready to lay double digits against a solid D, but I have think Seattle moves on.
Not convinced Baltimore is good enough to go any further either. They kind of played sluggish down the stretch, but did beat Pittsburgh on the road. But Pitt really struggled in the red zone and was settling for 3 points too much. Not going to win many games doing that in the playoffs. Still thinking this one over.
Colts went to Denver week 1 as 8 point dogs and lost by 7. But keep in mind Denver was up 31-10 in the 4th quarter before two late Colt scores made it appear closer. I think we'll see a similar game. Colts are good, but I am going to say they are a year away from a serious SB run. So this will not be the changing of the guard game just yet. Maybe next year we can do that in Indy and have Manning's last game ever a "bow-out" loss in his former city? How's that for a story line? Denver advances here. Might lay the points, but need to look things over more before I pull the trigger.
I think Dallas has the best chance of the dogs to win. They've had a decent season, and snuck one out yesterday against the Lions. Teams with decent offenses can move the ball on Green Bay and score. I think they also have two potential angles that could work in their favor. First is the weather. Might be really cold next week in Green Bay. I haven't seen a forecast yet, but it's f***king nasty cold here in Chicago now, and supposed to be worse mid-to-late week. The worse the weather is, the more in neutralizes things, and the more the variance for unexpected things to happen increases. 2nd angle is Rodger's health. He overcame his calf issue against Detroit and got a win, but you could tell he was not nearly as mobile as normal. And for a pocket passer, Rodgers is pretty mobile and effective running it sometimes. Actually had one of the higher yards per rush for QB's this year. He doesn't run often, but he can be effective when he does, so any nagging injury might take that option away, or neutralize it some. Of course, Green Bay is still plenty good enough to win this by 10+, so not sure what my play will be.
So, I still think a good chance all four teams win. Hardy a bold prediction, but that's just what I think. I'll give the Ravens and Cowboys the best chance at the upset. I think we get the Brady-Manning rematch you the NFL and Networks want. It could be their last meaningful head to head game. Although they will play again next year at some point, assuming Manning doesn't retire and both are healthy. Then we have Green Bay going back to Seattle, where they lost week one, and more infamously lost on the Fail Mary play a couple years ago with the replacement refs. That loss ultimately forced Green Bay into a WC game and a road game @ SF in the next round, rather than a bye and home game. If Dallas pulls off the upset, you have good story lines there too. Another rematch of Seattle's only home loss, and Dallas trying to avenge the Romo slip up from year's back.
Those are my initial thoughts on the games, similar to what I posted the other night, but wanted to expand on things a little after seeing Sunday's games.