Los Angeles Chargers @ New York Jets

Los Angeles Chargers -3 1/2

Gotta say I'm shocked here

Jets 3-0-1 ats L4 3 wins in a row 

I think Books inflated this line to make people think this line makes no sense Chargers must be right side

If Jets L it will be by fg or Less 

So you think books know who will actually win, and create a line to get people to bet the wrong side and carry the risk of having an uneven sheet?

Honest question.  I am trying to follow the thinking.

Good luck ESB.  

@JFelty

 Some serious psyops going on here. The book makes 10% with no risk by balancing action. They do occasionally take positions where they will not move off a number even as the action piles up on one side but they are not setting lines based on psychological warfare of "what will the bettors think that we think that they think" 

Quote Originally Posted by JFelty:

Gotta say I'm shocked here Jets 3-0-1 ats L4 3 wins in a row  I think Books inflated this line to make people think this line makes no sense Chargers must be right side If Jets L it will be by fg or Less

I agree with this statement. I wouldn’t go as far as saying books know the outcome of games but maybe a small percentage of them. Now what I do believe in is the books having great algorithms when setting lines and sometimes they do manipulate lines; making it so enticing therefore pushing the majority to one side, the wrong side of the algorithm…curious to see if you guys feel the same.

@EastsideBangers

@Yanasaur

  You think 10% profit is enough for these greedy B's?

@vanzack

 Basically!  

@hardly covers

 Books know all! Too much money at stake to be otherwise! It's a great system all these entities have created. Printing money, that's why 97% lose long term.

Was about to post my first NFL game, but you beat me to it..ESB

Although the hype about defense is heavily taken into consideration favoring the Jets,  SD is healthier on defense with some key guys back tonight. Defense looks better last few weeks and let's see if Chargers can stop the run tonight. I'm not worried about Zach throwing tonight.  Historically, Chargers are a great road team, just been on the wrong end of a one score game against Superbowl contenders this year. Chargers have been money in the past on the road and prime time games. I will take the better QB here and an improving defense. Deep threat J. Guyton(speedster) should play tonight against the best secondary in football tonight. The next few games will determine play off fate for the bolts. 

-3.5 and line really hasn't budged with heavy action on the Jets. Not afraid of the hook, but will still buy it 

@vanzack

 The books could care less who wins or loses.  The point spread is set to get even money on both sides and collect the juice.  That's why spreads/juicenare constantly changing.  Don't think too much into it.  

Chargers by GWFG

Chargers by GWFG

Bol 

Bang em out

Good luck tonight 

And yet you have games where 90% is on one side and they don't move the line.  Spoiler alert the books win those most of the time.   On a sports betting radio show a guy from caesars bragged about a mnf game pats /ravens from a couple years ago where 90% was on ravens at -7 and they didn't raise to 7.5 or 8.  Patriots won outright.

@EastsideBangers

ESB 

@EastsideBangers

@tweets50

I was so sure about the Chargers until Palmer is ruled OUT, Big arm QB with no-one to throw too worries me. KA can be shut down.

first time betting? Since when do trends just continue, rookie.

no it’s not. You would see even splits every game if that were the case. Sometimes they’re fine with the suckers leaning toward one side.

GL to mah  brother from another mother @EastsideBangers 

 LA Chargers have the coolest  uniforms in the NFL, hopefully lightning strikes tonight