Posted:
#26
Quote Originally Posted by Patchking:
im sure you will take it since you squeaked by there. KC was the right call tonight, they just got robbed just like balt & bears last week!
im sure you will take it since you squeaked by there. KC was the right call tonight, they just got robbed just like balt & bears last week!
Look - I was on KC as a big game - and they were not "the right call".
Even if they covered they were not "the right call".
It is a mistake for me to be involved in a game like this. Last week - Denver covered against Baltimore - and I felt great about being on Balt because I think if they played 10 more times I would bet Balt +4.5 in every one of them.
One thing I always do after a game is ask the question "what would the line be if there were a rematch in a week?" Do you think KC would be-3 again? No way. And I wouldnt bet them - or Denver for that matter.
I consider betting a game like last nights game a failure - even if I win. My goal is to be on sides that are more than a 45-55% winner. So if it comes down to the last few plays - sure I want to win - and am happy when I do - but dont kid yourself - those are games that good handicappers avoid and target to stay away from.
So if I allow myself to dwelll on the last 2 minutes of that game I vomit in my mouth - but KC had no real business covering in the first place. If KC would have won by 7, that would have been really lucky.
If you bet on a game that it feels lucky to win or unlucky to lose - you have usually failed as a handicapper.
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uuuuum,because the chiefs scored 14 points to zero,that explains the first bit...and manning didnt play as well as he could,that explains the second bit.
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