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Major Reverse Line Movement Ten-Jax

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Posted: #26
John Henderson is out for the Jags. An already sketchy run D just got a LOT worse. And I mean a LOT worse.
 
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Posted: #27
What makes you a sharp or a good capper? Is the public percentage incidence-based or dollar-weighted? Consider when you can have 80% of the public betting small $$ on Tenn, but the so-called sharps (fewer in number) bet large $$ on Jax... this may move it higher or lower, or leave it unchanged??
 
I guess I am questionning whether this is in reality a reverse line move. Books will look to balance the $$ amount on either side of the play. I think their risk managers are using simple black box programs to do this to take out all the noise...I don't know this for a fact, but I am guessing.
 
Motivation and other intangibles are difficult to quantify, but we can use key bits of data like key injuries, keys match-up, weather, and past H2H performance.
 
Based simply on past perfomance, the first game of the season with Vince Young's poor perfromane at QB  (Tenn still won), along with the last game against Chicago (winning with the pass) gives me confidence that Tenn is the play here. Also Jax' OL and DL, where they were known in the past as monsters, are being man-handled.
 
 
 
 
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Posted: #28
Even a broken clock is right twice a day. Love the Jay Z quote!!! BOL this week!!
 
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by KC_Barney:

What makes you a sharp or a good capper? Is the public percentage incidence-based or dollar-weighted? Consider when you can have 80% of the public betting small $$ on Tenn, but the so-called sharps (fewer in number) bet large $$ on Jax... this may move it higher or lower, or leave it unchanged??
 
I guess I am questionning whether this is in reality a reverse line move. Books will look to balance the $$ amount on either side of the play. I think their risk managers are using simple black box programs to do this to take out all the noise...I don't know this for a fact, but I am guessing.
 
Motivation and other intangibles are difficult to quantify, but we can use key bits of data like key injuries, keys match-up, weather, and past H2H performance.
 
Based simply on past perfomance, the first game of the season with Vince Young's poor perfromane at QB  (Tenn still won), along with the last game against Chicago (winning with the pass) gives me confidence that Tenn is the play here. Also Jax' OL and DL, where they were known in the past as monsters, are being man-handled.
 
 
 





80% of the bets on TEN are just 80% of the bets. The public may be on Tennessee but they bet nowhere the amount of money that the "sharps" do who are on Jacksonville. The books know the sharps will be on a divisional home dog almost all the time so they set a low line to get some public money to balance the actual amount of money on each side. There are no "traps", the books are simply trying to have equal action on both sides and take home the juice.


I don't get why everyone is all over Jacksonville here. They have been garbage this season. Last week's big win in Detroit has everyone all goo-goo-eyed. But that game means NOTHING because the Lions are so bad. Here's an interesting stat: Teams that have played the Lions so far this year are 1-7 SU and ATS the next week losing by an average of almost 10.5 points and the only win was against the Bengals...and should that really count either?
 
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Posted: #30
OK, let's assume the books are balanced.  Can you tell me why a 9-0 SU 8-1 ATS is laying LESS than a FG to a team that you are saying has been "garbage" this season?


I'll hang up and listen off air.

 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by redskinsnut:

OK, let's assume the books are balanced.  Can you tell me why a 9-0 SU 8-1 ATS is laying LESS than a FG to a team that you are saying has been "garbage" this season?


I'll hang up and listen off air.

I think Andamac99 answered you in his first paragragh.

Forget about the public and the sharps and what they do...look at the two teams: their past performances, injuries, tendencies, stars, weak links, coaches, etc, and then decide if the spread is a bad number. Everyone will weigh different factors with diferent weights...I think the line is too low, so Tenn is the play.

 
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Posted: #32
ok here is my take.
 
Most Vegas books still have it at -3
 
It's obviously a good situational play and I'm guessing there is actually more money on JAX so I think you are right on that.
 
I think it's almost a stay away game for me cus I'm not sure what the line would be if every1 didn't just see the Jags kill the Lions...it couldn't be that much higher but there is line value there IMO...I also don't believe the Titans are getting the credit they deserve...
 
I think you're right that it is JAX or nothing but at the same time I know if I take the Jags this week I will be sorry...I just have that feeling. It's a great situational spot, but the Jags can't be trusted versus the leagues elite...
 
I think a JAX tease to +10 is worth a look.
 
PS - Good thread red
 
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Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by redskinsnut:

OK, let's assume the books are balanced.  Can you tell me why a 9-0 SU 8-1 ATS is laying LESS than a FG to a team that you are saying has been "garbage" this season?


I'll hang up and listen off air.



I don't know lol. I think it's a bad line. It should be -4 or -6 but it's tough because TEN doesn't blow anyone out.

The more I look at it the more I think TEN -1 is a good play (already played it). It just doesn't smell like an "upset" game. Teams that run the ball and play tight defense are very tough to beat, especially on the road and especially when they matchup so well to a bad Jacksonville team.

Relatively speaking IMO it's only 60-40 at most that TEN covers so anything can happen.

GL and agreed you've had some good threads this week.
 
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Posted: #34
Some interesting insight here. Personally, I tried not to over-analyze this game. I waited patiently all week for the line to drop to -2.5 and hammered TEN.
 
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Posted: #35
I'll put in my two cents worth...

Every week there is someone touting reverse line movement on what appears to be an already 'trap' line. Whether it's BUF@MIA, ATL@OAK, NYG@PHI, or PHI@SEA someone always is on it. It may work for some, but I just stay away from it.

The best way in my opinion is to handicap the game yourself. Get good at doing it before looking at anything else. If you have a good record, then trust yourself and pound games where you think there is value.

As for this game, on paper I my initial stats have it at Ten -17. No surprise since they are undefeated and Jags have been struggling. As many pointed out, this is not just a standard road game, but a divisional road game. Since '96, teams that my stats have favored by 17 or more on the road against a divisional opponent look like this.

Win by 1 - 71.4%
Win by 2 - 69.3%
Win by 3 - 67.3 %
Win by 4 - 51.4 %
Win by 5 - 50.0 %

Notice the huge drop-off between 3 and 4 points. I truly believe that my stats cap the strength of each team correctly, but given the situation of the game you have to look at the history and how teams actually perform. I believe a lot of sharps and bookies know something similar to this, which is a big reason the line is sitting dead at -3.

So, if you have a line at TEN -2.5 or better....you know what to do. Otherwise, it's pretty much a coin toss.
 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by sancho8297:


As for this game, on paper I my initial stats have it at Ten -17. No surprise since they are undefeated and Jags have been struggling. As many pointed out, this is not just a standard road game, but a divisional road game. Since '96, teams that my stats have favored by 17 or more on the road against a divisional opponent look like this.

Win by 1 - 71.4%
Win by 2 - 69.3%
Win by 3 - 67.3 %
Win by 4 - 51.4 %
Win by 5 - 50.0 %

Notice the huge drop-off between 3 and 4 points. I truly believe that my stats cap the strength of each team correctly, but given the situation of the game you have to look at the history and how teams actually perform. I believe a lot of sharps and bookies know something similar to this, which is a big reason the line is sitting dead at -3.

wtf...so you're saying when your 'system' has a team fav. by 17 or more they win by 1 point (in this situation) 71% of the time??...

...and this leads you to believe that a) your system is good, and b) TEN is the play?

very confused....

 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by DiscoD69:

wtf...so you're saying when your 'system' has a team fav. by 17 or more they win by 1 point (in this situation) 71% of the time??...

...and this leads you to believe that a) your system is good, and b) TEN is the play?

very confused....



Sorry, I guess I should have made it clearer:

Win by AT LEAST 1: 71.4%
Win by AT LEAST 2: 69.3%
Win by AT LEAST 3: 67.3%

etc etc....

If you think it's all whack, by all means fade away. Tennessee has a margin of victory this year of a little more than 11pts. Jacksonville is 1-3 at home, Ten is obviously perfect on the road. Is it that big of surprise that systems would have them as a big fav?????? Of course not! That's why everyone is screaming about the line. No system can handicap games perfectly, and if I had a system that predicted teams to win by 17 and they won by 17 over seventy percent of the time I would be in Tahiti somewhere not sitting on my bum in Wisconsin....
 
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Posted: #38

Quote Originally Posted by sancho8297:



Sorry, I guess I should have made it clearer:

Win by AT LEAST 1: 71.4%
Win by AT LEAST 2: 69.3%
Win by AT LEAST 3: 67.3%

etc etc....

If you think it's all whack, by all means fade away. Tennessee has a margin of victory this year of a little more than 11pts. Jacksonville is 1-3 at home, Ten is obviously perfect on the road. Is it that big of surprise that systems would have them as a big fav?????? Of course not! That's why everyone is screaming about the line. No system can handicap games perfectly, and if I had a system that predicted teams to win by 17 and they won by 17 over seventy percent of the time I would be in Tahiti somewhere not sitting on my bum in Wisconsin....

"At Least" is what makes me understand what you're getting at...I wasn't trying to bash just the way you worded the original post was confusing...

PS- of course I understand why your system has TEN by 17...it was the results and your reaction to past similar situations that needed clarification.

 
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Posted: #39
Also I should note again, that going by the numbers I posted that TEN is not the play unless you can find them at -2.5 somewhere. Otherwise the play on this game is to not make one.
 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by DiscoD69:

"At Least" is what makes me understand what you're getting at...I wasn't trying to bash just the way you worded the original post was confusing...

PS- of course I understand why your system has TEN by 17...it was the results and your reaction to past similar situations that needed clarification.





No worries...My grammar sucks. Much better with numbers, BOL...
 
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Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by sancho8297:

Also I should note again, that going by the numbers I posted that TEN is not the play unless you can find them at -2.5 somewhere. Otherwise the play on this game is to not make one.

-1 with lots of juice at Pinny

 
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Posted: #42
Tennessee Jacksonville
Date Away/Home Line O/U Tot Rus Pas Tot Rus Pas
09/07/08 JAC 10 - TEN 17 TEN 3 U 37 309 137 172 189 33 156
11/11/07 JAC 28 - TEN 13 JAC 4.5 O 36 292 62 230 262 166 96
09/09/07 TEN 13 - JAC 10 TEN 7.5 U 39.5 350 282 68 272 72 200
12/17/06 JAC 17 - TEN 24
last 4
 
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Posted: #43
Going to sprinkle a little on the Jags this week. Titans are a great team , but due for a loss against a hungry Jags team in a must win week.
 
May the winners be yours GL
 
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Posted: #44
HEY REDSKINS......I also think this looks like the Patriots trend of last year.  Very rarely does a team cover the whole season consistenty, besides what the 85 Bears? or whatever year that was..  The major difference though is the Pats spreads were jacked up by like 20.  But the significance of that is minor because Titans are like the opposites of the Pats scoring wise.  We all saw what happened to the Pats ATS record coming down the stretch, what 1-9?  I think your right and that this week is the first week of the downfall ATS of the Tennessee Titans.  What do you think about that?  Betting against Tennessee no matter what for the next 8 weeks.    lol j/k, not so sure Ide do that
 
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Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by sancho8297:

Every week there is someone touting reverse line movement on what appears to be an already 'trap' line.

I am not saying this hits at a 90% rate or something.  Over the long haul maybe 65% or so.  Anytime I see 3/4 of bets coming in on a side with a line that doesn't make sense and the line moving the other way I am going to pull the trigger.

I am never going to be "that guy" who sees a game like this and says he is not going to over think it and simply take the better team with such a good line.
 
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Posted: #46
I'm with ya on JAX...redskinsnut...doubling up my normal play here...Gl
 
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Posted: #47
It's almost an identical situation as the Giants-Eagles. Only, this time, hopefully we've been a little smarter."



Little smarter

it means

TEN will whoop down the bruised JAGS...(not to mention the $$ pouring in already!)

Jags are very battered and bruised..  Tenn is not going down just. 

This line should be Ten -7.5

 
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Posted: #48
every week i see people trying to predict a tennessee loss and them playing the moneyline, never really justified either. tennessee is better all around, if you cap games just trying to "beat the system" you'll lose in the long run. the public hits games, sharps don't hit everything. look at the nfl last week, if you went against the public you had a horrible week. i've bet every tennessee game this year, and i had GB when they played them b/c it was a tough situation, while it's a hostile divisional matchup, tenn. creates mismatches here and can shut down the jags run game. huge on tenn this week. but BOL to all
 
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Posted: #49
Quote Originally Posted by Rookie_Bookie:

It's almost an identical situation as the Giants-Eagles. Only, this time, hopefully we've been a little smarter."



Little smarter

it means

TEN will whoop down the bruised JAGS...(not to mention the $$ pouring in already!)

Jags are very battered and bruised..  Tenn is not going down just. 

This line should be Ten -7.5


Spoken like a true square.  Well said.
 
 
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Posted: #50
Quote Originally Posted by landis1717:

every week i see people trying to predict a tennessee loss and them playing the moneyline, never really justified either. tennessee is better all around, if you cap games just trying to "beat the system" you'll lose in the long run. the public hits games, sharps don't hit everything. look at the nfl last week, if you went against the public you had a horrible week. i've bet every tennessee game this year, and i had GB when they played them b/c it was a tough situation, while it's a hostile divisional matchup, tenn. creates mismatches here and can shut down the jags run game. huge on tenn this week. but BOL to all

Are you saying the public is right just as much as the sharps?  That is laughable.  And to support this argument using last week is ridiculous.  Last Sunday was a highly unusual day with the public cashing in left and right.  You won't see that happen very often.
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