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Major Reverse Line Movement Ten-Jax

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Posted: #51
REDSKINS..GREAT DEBATE ON THIS THREAD. (EXCEPT FOR NO TALENT888)

SAVE ALL THE AGGRAVATION IN WHAT PROMISES TO BE A 3 PT GAME...
BET THE COWBOYS AGAINST YOUR REDSKINS...
 
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Posted: #52
I have to admit you all are scaring me off Tenn but I have to play a team on a roll.  when you go 8-1 against the spread you are right only once.
 
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Posted: #53
Stache v. Del Rio,
rushing edge to Stache as well as
overall yardage projections.


 
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Posted: #54
Quote Originally Posted by vegasplayer:

I have to admit you all are scaring me off Tenn but I have to play a team on a roll.  when you go 8-1 against the spread you are right only once.

And if history repeats itself (last year's undefeated ATS money train Patriots) then you will be only wrong one time from here til the end of the season. 
 
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Posted: #55
Wk 11, 2007 - Pats -16.5 @ Bills
Wk 12, 2007 - Eagles @ Pats -24.5
Wk 13, 2007 - Pats -19 @ Ravens
Wk 14, 2007 - Steelers @ Pats -11
Wk 15, 2007 - Jets @ Pats -20
Wk 16, 2007 - Fins @ Pats -22
Wk 17, 2007 - Pats -8 @ Giants

This weeks line is TEN -3. How in the world are we comparing them to the Pats? The lines are not even in the same ballpark. The Wk 11 game last year the Pats were at the 5-4 Bills and were favored 16.5! This week TEN at 4-5 Jags and is favored by 3.

I think a better comparison for the Titans to a team from 2007 would be the Packers. They were 7-1-1 ATS going into week 11 last year, and despite winning week after week the lines consistently shorted them. Everyone was waiting for them to come back to earth. The Packers went 5-2 ATS the rest of the way and covered some double digit spreads, but they were all right around 10-11 points, nothing like what NE had to cover against.

You will not see TEN having to cover anything higher than -14 is my guess, as they have yet to be favored by more than 9 (against KC) whereas NE last year was favored by 16 three times and 15 once by week 11. Maybe when TEN plays Detroit they will have to give some serious points, but that will probably be the only one.

Sure TEN is 9-0 and so was NE last year at this point. But that is where the similarities end.
 
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Posted: #56
I wouldn't call Jacksonville hostile territory. I don't think they even sell their games out. It is the smallest market in the NFL.
 
Titans will go 10-0. Jacksonville has too many injuries up front to stop the D-line of Tennessee.
 
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Posted: #57
Quote Originally Posted by htrain34:

I wouldn't call Jacksonville hostile territory. I don't think they even sell their games out. It is the smallest market in the NFL.

The smallest market in the NFL is in Green Bay, Wisconsin.  Does that make Lambeau Field less hostile?

It is a division rival.  There is your hostility.


 
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Posted: #58
 
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Posted: #59
Long Longgggggggg die hard Browns fan Browns beat Jax, wasn't as close as score indicated. Tenn. would beat Browns 24-7 ---27-10. DON'T FOGET THE TREND THAT EVERY TEAM THAT BEAT DETROIT HAS LOST THE NEXT GAME! Tenn. Too Strong.  Tenn. by 10
 
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Posted: #60
Is this the week the Tennessee Titans finally suffer their first defeat?

Bettors thought it would happen two weeks ago when they wagered heavily against the Titans. Tennessee beat Green Bay in overtime. It was the only time the Titans haven’t covered all season.

Money came against the Titans this past weekend, too, but Tennessee beat Chicago on the road.

There’s a feeling the Titans won’t be so fortunate away from home again this Sunday. The Titans are three-point road favorites versus Jacksonville.

“Any time you take Tennessee now you’re taking a chance,” said Mike Seba, a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants. “The Titans actually could use a loss. They know they’re not going undefeated and the pressure has to be on the minds, especially when on the road.”
   
There was divided opinion among the LVSC oddsmakers on the Titans-Jaguars matchup. The lines ranged from Jacksonville minus one to Titans minus 2½. The company’s recommendation to its many Nevada hotel clients was Titans minus one.

Bookmakers felt they couldn’t put out Tennessee as more than a field goal favorite against the Jaguars, after the Titans were minus three last week against the Bears.

“I don’t think you give three to Jacksonville at home,” Seba said. “I wouldn’t be surprised if the line came down to 2½.

“Jacksonville is looking better. The Jaguars are getting healthier and absolutely have to have this game. Even though their record isn’t good, the Jaguars are a decent team. This is a good spot for them.”

The Jaguars looked great this past Sunday. But that was against winless Detroit. In their previous game, the Jaguars lost to the Cincinnati Bengals, which hadn’t won a game.

You know what you’re going to get from Tennessee – a low-scoring, conservative type of hard-hitting smash-mouth game. That’s Jacksonville’s style, too. The key is which Jacksonville team will show up?

“The Titans always comes to play, but it has to catch up to them at some point,” Seba said.
 
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Posted: #61
Quote Originally Posted by spdlmt:

Either pick TN or lay off the game.  Picking Jax in hopes of either TN screwing up or Jax playing above anyone's expectation doesn't sound like the way to go.

Very well said, concur.

One of the best motivation factors is to stay undefeated.

 
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Posted: #62
Quote Originally Posted by Guy_2U:

Very well said, concur.

One of the best motivation factors is to stay undefeated.


Ya, I am sure that is the big motivation in Tennessee.  How did that work out for NE last year?
 
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Posted: #63
Quote Originally Posted by RedDog54:

Long Longgggggggg die hard Browns fan Browns beat Jax, wasn't as close as score indicated. Tenn. would beat Browns 24-7 ---27-10. DON'T FOGET THE TREND THAT EVERY TEAM THAT BEAT DETROIT HAS LOST THE NEXT GAME! Tenn. Too Strong.  Tenn. by 10  
 
Interesting stats, maybe the other team offenses got tired scoring all them points against them and comes out flat footed for the next game.

 

 
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Posted: #64
Quote Originally Posted by redskinsnut:


Ya, I am sure that is the big motivation in Tennessee.  How did that work out for NE last year?
 
New England Patriots 18 and 1 for the 2007 season.
I don't have the stats on the straight up point spreads won,
pretty confident if you bet on all the NE games as favorites, good coinage was won.
 
Can Jaguars win, of course they can, on any given Sunday it can happen. In my analysts they are over matched. Let your winners ride and giddy-up.
 

 

 
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Posted: #65
Quote Originally Posted by Guy_2U:

 
New England Patriots 18 and 1 for the 2007 season.
I don't have the stats on the straight up point spreads won,
pretty confident if you bet on all the NE games as favorites, good coinage was won.
 
Can Jaguars win, of course they can, on any given Sunday it can happen. In my analysts they are over matched. Let your winners ride and giddy-up.
 

 

 

New England were 10-6 ATS last season, however were only 2-6 ATS last half of the season.

 
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Posted: #66
Quote Originally Posted by redskinsnut:


The smallest market in the NFL is in Green Bay, Wisconsin.  Does that make Lambeau Field less hostile?

It is a division rival.  There is your hostility.


OK, I will give you GB is smaller than Jacksonville by about three people, but they have been around for years and have won championships. Either way, calling Jacksonville hostile is a huge overstatement.

 
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Posted: #67
Quote Originally Posted by redskinsnut:


The smallest market in the NFL is in Green Bay, Wisconsin.  Does that make Lambeau Field less hostile?

It is a division rival.  There is your hostility.


Jacksonville has been laying eggs at home all year. Fisher isn't just going to show up and tell these guys the game doesn't mean shit. If you have -2.5 in this one you're basically picking the winner. That said, just because a team wants to do something doesn't mean they will. Talent takes this game over, Tenn wins and the Jacksonville players get over it and drive home to prepare themselves for the MTV camera crew and another episode of cribs.

 
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Posted: #68
Quote Originally Posted by RedDog54:

Long Longgggggggg die hard Browns fan Browns beat Jax, wasn't as close as score indicated. Tenn. would beat Browns 24-7 ---27-10. DON'T FOGET THE TREND THAT EVERY TEAM THAT BEAT DETROIT HAS LOST THE NEXT GAME! Tenn. Too Strong.  Tenn. by 10


Actually Texans beat Lions on week 7 and also won on week 8 beating Bengals...still a very nice trend to consider
“Nothing has meaning except for the meaning you give it.”
 
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Posted: #69
I wonder how many threads will be made over the next few weeks that start with "The titans lose this week...i promise, this IS the week!"
 
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Posted: #70
TENNESSEE (9 - 0) at JACKSONVILLE (4 - 5) - 11/16/2008, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all games this season.
TENNESSEE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) against conference opponents this season.
TENNESSEE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
TENNESSEE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.
TENNESSEE is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
TENNESSEE is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) as a favorite this season.
TENNESSEE is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
 
Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 3-2 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE is 3-2 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
 
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Posted: #71
Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Oddsmakers currently have the Titans listed as 3-point favorites versus the Jaguars, while the game's total is sitting at 39½.

The Titans defeated Chicago 21-14 as a 3-point favorite in Week 10. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (37).

Kerry Collins passed for 289 yards with a pair of touchdown passes, while Bo Scaife caught 10 passes for 78 yards with a touchdown in the win.

The Jaguars defeated Detroit 38-14 as a 6-point favorite in Week 10. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (43).

Maurice Jone-Drew rushed for three touchdown while ranking up 70 yards on 11 carries for Jacksonville, while David Garrard passed for 238 yards with a pair of touchdown passes in the win.

Current streak:
Tennessee has won 9 straight games.

Team records:
Tennessee: 9-0 SU, 8-0-1 ATS
Jacksonville: 4-5 SU, 3-6 ATS

Tennessee most recently:
When playing in November are 5-5
When playing on grass are 9-1
After outgaining opponent are 5-5
When playing within the division are 8-2

Jacksonville most recently:
When playing in November are 6-4
When playing on grass are 5-5
After outgaining opponent are 5-5
When playing within the division are 4-6

A few trends to consider:
Tennessee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Tennessee is 8-0-1 ATS in its last 9 games
Tennessee is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Tennessee is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Jacksonville's last 8 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Jacksonville's last 21 games
Jacksonville is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Jacksonville's last 12 games when playing at home against Tennessee
 
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Posted: #72
Tennessee at Jacksonville

Series History: The Titans beat the Jaguars, 17-10, as 3-point home dogs in their season opener this year.  The underdog in this series is 8-2.

Tennessee Key Stat: The Titans are 1-9 in November with a .500 or greater record versus an opponent off a double-digit win.

Jacksonville Key Stat: The Jaguars are 7-1 in November versus an opponent off back-to-back wins.

You Need To Know: Jacksonville coach Jack Del Rio is 17-6 as a dog with revenge, including 13-2 if his team's win percentage is .444 or greater.
 
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Posted: #73
Sooner or later the AFC South was going to have three playoff teams in the same season, and that was the case in 2007 when Indianapolis, Jacksonville and Tennessee qualified with a combined record of 34-14. The Titans, who scored only four more points than they allowed, won their last three regular-season games and 10 overall to reach the playoffs for the first time since 2003. They were promptly eliminated in the wild-card round by San Diego, 17-6, but they haven’t lost since.

Tennessee’s amazing 2008 campaign, which began with a victory at home over Jacksonville, continued last week in Chicago as it won its ninth straight out of the gate. The Bears, with Rex Grossman at quarterback in place of the injured Kyle Orton, had 243 yards of offense in a 21-14 decision.

The Titans (8-0-1 ATS) are doing things quite different this year. They’ve shown the ability to win the close games like they did a year ago, such as a 13-10 victory in Baltimore in Week 5, a 31-21 triumph over Indianapolis in Week 8 and a 19-16 overtime win over Green Bay in Week 9, and they’ve also posted a couple of blowouts. All told, they’ve outscored opponents by a 220-117 margin and are 13-3 ATS facing division foes.

Most pundits picked the Jaguars—not the Titans—to unseat the Colts in the division and challenge for AFC supremacy after reaching the divisional round last year. But things haven’t gone according to plan in Jacksonville (4-5, 3-6 ATS), which came out of its bye at 3-3 and facing games at home against Cleveland and at Cincinnati and Detroit.

Last Sunday’s 38-14 victory over the Lions helped the Jags soothe some deep wounds left by losses to the Browns and Bengals. Their ground attack, which produced an uncharacteristic 68 yards in the defeat to previously winless Cincinnati, got untracked with 157 yards.

Quarterback David Garrard, who has one interception in the last six games after throwing four in the first three contests, went 18-for-25 for 238 yards and two touchdowns. The Jaguars are 7-0 ATS after a two game road trip the last three seasons.

Tennessee sacked Garrard seven times and picked him off twice in its 17-10 victory in Week 1. The Jaguars managed just 33 yards rushing on 17 carries, while the Titans got touchdowns from running backs LenDale White and rookie Chris Johnson. The straight up winner of this matchup is 23-2 ATS in regular season conflicts.

Keys to the Game-

The Jaguars run defense has been gashed for over 122 yards per game in the last five, which should help Tennessee get back on track. The Jacksonville secondary can be had, ranking 22nd in yards allowed per attempt. Like all teams, the Titans want to stuff the Jags running game and see if Garrard can beat them thru the air. Tennessee is 15-6 ATS in road games the last three years. For coach Jack De Rio’s squad to pull the upset, they have to run the ball effectively. The offensive line is finally showing signs of coming together and they have to get Jones-Drew the ball in open spaces with a blocker. The Jacksonville linebackers have to be sure tacklers against the run, hit’em, drop’em. In the season opener, the Jaguars were burned by Collins in the blitz, play normal Cover 2 and make Titans earn points. The home team is 12-6 ATS
 
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Posted: #74
 
 
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Posted: #75
To all of you enlightening me with the fact that Tennessee is the better football team I say:

No Shit.  If betting on the NFL was as easy as picking the clearly better team to cover less than 3 then we would all be rich and Las Vegas would be a ghost town.
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