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MRxKRAZZ NFL week #1

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Posted: #1
Time to get this NFL season cracking!!!!!

2015-2016 NFL Season WEEK#1

PIT @ NE -3 ( last line I saw active before it being taken off the board )

LEAN~ NE-3

Assuming Brady will be out this game at the very least of his 4 game suspension, the line will where I think it will be barring any major injuries. Some might find it hard to back a team without its starting future HOF QB, but I find it more hard to back a PIT team without its BELLcow RB that can do it all and very suspect D. Blount is also out this game but a guy by the name Jonas Gray might carry this team to a win opening night at home. 

LEAN~ NYJ -3

I am not a fan of any NY teams, but I see this game being a complete mismatch on both sides of the ball, yes Cle also have a nice D, but unless GENO straight give this game away, I will take the home team to win this game.

LEAN~ DEN -4.5 ( I would probably take them up to -6 )

I just think DEN's O can do more than what the BAL O can to do DEN's D, having a HC that was just in BAL will do nothing but help game planing on Justin Forrset, also that Wade Phillip D might be some to reckon with this year.

LEAN~ NYG +5.5

I still think Dal isn't as good as they were last year, losing Murray will not help them one bit, I like a NYG upset here with Eli and their O going nuts.

LEAN~ ATL+1

This lean is right at this moment, after preseason I might think other wise, but as of now, this ATL O have been intact for a few seasons while their D can not get any worst. On the other hand, Phi have a whole new team to me on the offensive side, until they show me they can still ball at CHIP's level, I will not back them on the road.

LEAN~ MIN +2.5

Too many lost players, whole new coaching staff, up and coming team with Min with AP carrying the rock, I will take Min to show SF losing too many players isn't a good recipe to success.

Those have know me know I can switch my leans at anytime unless I stat its a PLAY, also I only pick one game from each time time slot.




NFL season 2014-2015 ( PLAYOFFS INCLUDED )

YTD 112-86-3

YTD +96.257


NFL season 2013-2014 ( PLAYOFFS INCLUDED )

YTD 136-96-5

YTD +113.62units

 
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Posted: #2
Your Dallas lean is stupid, and I'll say so every day until September. Name one rational area in which Dallas is worse other than Running Back. 

Also, you have some good leans here, but not all of them should be sides. For example, you say there are two very good Ds coming together in Den/Bal... why not go u48.5?

You say you think the Giants are going to win? That means you think the Dallas D is going to hemorrhage points, so shouldn't you just bet the over knowing that Tony Romo and that O Line will get you at least 24? that's halfway to fifty, no?

What about your NE lean? Do you really want to back Jimmy Garappolo? I don't know man, that's a little hefty for me and is certainly a no play.
 
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Posted: #3
Great to see you, Krazz. Those two months gonna be way too long.

Regarding the Cowboys, I have to side with porcelainfist here. Many people are underestimating them, but in fact they will be a better team than they were in 2014. They will have a much improved defense and their offense is gonna be rolling. It doesn't matter if Murray or Randle/DMC are running behind the best offensive line in the league.

Looking forward to some nice discussions
 
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Posted: #4
I agree with your NY Giants lean. 

Cowboys according to expected wins which is based on point margin, won 1.4 games more than they should of last season, indicating they are not as good as their record may have told one.

That ranked 29th in a 32 team league.

Giants on the other hand won 1.5 games fewer than their expected wins said they should of won, indicating the Giants were better than their record may have said they were. 

That ranks 2cd in a 32 team league.

History tells us that once teams get to the + or - 1.5 they are strong canidates to have regression the following year.

Cowboys would also fit another regression fade in week 1 off yet another regression method.

Regression does not like the Cowboys chances of improving and having a better record in 2015.

They may have a better team but that does not always translate to a better season as the chances they recieve  the same luck is not likely based on history.
 
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by porcelainfist:

Your Dallas lean is stupid, and I'll say so every day until September. Name one rational area in which Dallas is worse other than Running Back. 

Also, you have some good leans here, but not all of them should be sides. For example, you say there are two very good Ds coming together in Den/Bal... why not go u48.5?

You say you think the Giants are going to win? That means you think the Dallas D is going to hemorrhage points, so shouldn't you just bet the over knowing that Tony Romo and that O Line will get you at least 24? that's halfway to fifty, no?

What about your NE lean? Do you really want to back Jimmy Garappolo? I don't know man, that's a little hefty for me and is certainly a no play.

First off, no lean is STUPID, and there are never a right or wrong, NYG lean is my opinion, and you can hate on it as much as you want, but to call it STUPID?? CMON man......

NYG @ DAL -5.5

Name one area where DAL improved? I like Hardy, but he will miss 4 games to start the season, McClain got hit with 4 games, Cater Durant no longer on the team, on the D line Melton and Spencer is gone as well, that to me didn't improve from last year. I actually like Gregory but I don't not expect him to have an impact game to start the season, Lee is back as well, but I think its a downgrade to have him back in the lineup ( call me crazy if you wish here ). The back four have potential to be special, key word POTENTIAL, ODB and CRUZ have the upper edge to me at this very moment though, Donnel to me will also see a lot clear lanes, advantage NYG. On the flip side, like I mention, the NYG D is not going to be any worst than they were last year. Des is a beast, no one will shut him down, but until I see Randal or DMC prove it is the O line that is KEY to the Dal run game last year, I will have to downgrade their running game with Murray no longer around.

Like my post this is just a lean, I have switch from my leans before kickoff and bet the other sides many times, but for now catching 5.5 or 6 with NYG to me is too good to pass up. If this game was in week 6 or after I might feel different, and no I am not a DAL hater, I am a fan of all 32 teams and will bet on or aganst any team any given week. It very well might be a bad lean but to me its far from STUPID.

I am not a total player so over/under mean nothing to me.

PIT @ NE

No, I am not betting on Jimmy G, I am leaning to wager on BB NE's head coach to have a game plan to be effective enough to WIN their season opener without Brady and Blount. Without Bell PIT O isn't half of what they shown last season.

 
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by suuma:

Great to see you, Krazz. Those two months gonna be way too long.

Regarding the Cowboys, I have to side with porcelainfist here. Many people are underestimating them, but in fact they will be a better team than they were in 2014. They will have a much improved defense and their offense is gonna be rolling. It doesn't matter if Murray or Randle/DMC are running behind the best offensive line in the league.

Looking forward to some nice discussions

Only caught on to you last year, but I always respect your opinion, and when things match on our thoughts, I think the play were almost close to 80-85% winners.

With Dal, I think the underestimating part was last year, most people had them wining 6 games at best and they were 1 catch away from being in the NFC CHAMP game. Do i think they suck, NO far from it, but to start the season I see too many holes and weakness that will take time for them to jell, missing players with suspensions will do nothing but hurt them. Their running game might take a couple of games to get going. I know how good their Oline is n can be but I am not buying Murray can be replace with anyone, at least not right away in game 1 of the 2015-2016 season.

I am in the mock season mode with fantasy football got bored and wanted to get some chats going with week 1 plays, 2 months is going to come by fast for me, training camp 2 weeks away then pre season. These are just my leans this very moment, things can change for sure when its time to pick in week #1.

Lets make that money this year !!!! I am looking forward to my best season yet.

 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

I agree with your NY Giants lean. 

Cowboys according to expected wins which is based on point margin, won 1.4 games more than they should of last season, indicating they are not as good as their record may have told one.

That ranked 29th in a 32 team league.

Giants on the other hand won 1.5 games fewer than their expected wins said they should of won, indicating the Giants were better than their record may have said they were. 

That ranks 2cd in a 32 team league.

History tells us that once teams get to the + or - 1.5 they are strong canidates to have regression the following year.

Cowboys would also fit another regression fade in week 1 off yet another regression method.

Regression does not like the Cowboys chances of improving and having a better record in 2015.

They may have a better team but that does not always translate to a better season as the chances they recieve  the same luck is not likely based on history.

NYG are who I like right now, it can change with injuries but unless something big takes place, thats how I am leaning on this game. Could be wrong but I am not high on Dal like most people this season.

 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

I agree with your NY Giants lean. 

Cowboys according to expected wins which is based on point margin, won 1.4 games more than they should of last season, indicating they are not as good as their record may have told one.

That ranked 29th in a 32 team league.

Giants on the other hand won 1.5 games fewer than their expected wins said they should of won, indicating the Giants were better than their record may have said they were. 

That ranks 2cd in a 32 team league.

History tells us that once teams get to the + or - 1.5 they are strong canidates to have regression the following year.

Cowboys would also fit another regression fade in week 1 off yet another regression method.

Regression does not like the Cowboys chances of improving and having a better record in 2015.

They may have a better team but that does not always translate to a better season as the chances they recieve  the same luck is not likely based on history.


Hey theclaw. I don't really understand the logic behind your intention. I would gladly get to know the math behind that regression model. Is it historic correlation between margin & win percentage?

Not considering overtime, they had the 5th-best true margin (off. ppg - def. ppg). The other four teams were GB, NE, SEA & DEN. There wasn't a huge difference between the Cowboys and the Patriots (0.9). Each of those five teams finished 12-4.

The only winning game they should have lost was at St. Louis. That would have made them a 11-5 team instead of 12-4. Their defense was really bad and everyone knows that. Despite their bad defense, they went 12-4 or atleast would have went 11-5.

Now they improved their defense significantly and upgraded the already-best offensive line in the league with La'el Collins and you say they will regress because they had 1.4 wins more than they should in 2014? That doesn't make any sense.

Regarding the game against the Giants, the Cowboys will literally dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides. I don't know the recent update of JPP, but I think there is a huge probability he won't play in week 1, so just tell me how the Giants want to get pressure on Tony Romo? He will have a field day. And the pass rush of Dallas - even without Hardy - should be enough to cause problems for Eli Manning who will have a worse offensive line than last year with Ereck Flowers starting at LT.



 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by MRxKrazz:


Name one area where DAL improved?


First off, this is going to be a very nice thread with some quality discussions

Offensive line: La'el Collins, a guy who would have been a top-15 pick without the witness interview, and he isn't even a starter. Chaz Green from Florida adds some depth as well. How are the Giants gonna get pressure on Romo? I don't believe JPP will be ready in week one.

CB: Remember, it will be the first year the number six pick of the 2012 draft, Morris Claiborne, will start the season with a full training camp and without an injury (if nothing happens until September). The Cowboys should feel like getting a new guy, a starter. Byron Jones shouldn't have been a first rounder IMO, but due to his freakish athleticism, he brings a new dimension into nickle packages and the CB depth. After pre-season we will know more about his game on the field.

DE: Jeremy Mincey played very good down the stretch in 2014 and the Cowboys just added Randy Gregory and Greg Hardy who will be missing four games. Starting in week 5, the Cowboys will have a very very dangerous front-seven with a DE-rotation of Mincey, Hardy & Gregory. Mincey and Hardy should bring enough pressure from the edges to cause troubles at the soft NYG offensive line. Ereck Flowers will start LT for the injured Beatty, and will have a matchup against Randy Gregory. Gregory already won that matchup in 2014, when Nebraska played Miami.

LB: McClain is suspended, but with the return of Sean Lee, their LB position will be improved come week five.


 
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Posted: #10
"Name one area where DAL improved?"


First off, this is going to be a very nice thread with some quality discussions

Offensive line: La'el Collins, a guy who would have been a top-15 pick without the witness interview, and he isn't even a starter. Chaz Green from Florida adds some depth as well. How are the Giants gonna get pressure on Romo? I don't believe JPP will be ready in week one.

CB: Remember, it will be the first year the number six pick of the 2012 draft, Morris Claiborne, will start the season with a full training camp and without an injury (if nothing happens until September). The Cowboys should feel like getting a new guy, a starter. Byron Jones shouldn't have been a first rounder IMO, but due to his freakish athleticism, he brings a new dimension into nickle packages and the CB depth. After pre-season we will know more about his game on the field.

DE: Jeremy Mincey played very good down the stretch in 2014 and the Cowboys just added Randy Gregory and Greg Hardy who will be missing four games. Starting in week 5, the Cowboys will have a very very dangerous front-seven with a DE-rotation of Mincey, Hardy & Gregory. Mincey and Hardy should bring enough pressure from the edges to cause troubles at the soft NYG offensive line. Ereck Flowers will start LT for the injured Beatty, and will have a matchup against Randy Gregory. Gregory already won that matchup in 2014, when Nebraska played Miami.

LB: McClain is suspended, but with the return of Sean Lee, their LB position will be improved come week five.



Sorry for double-post, but sometimes this quote-option gets stupid.
 
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Posted: #11
My initial take to this game is that the Giants can cover at +6, even more so at +7.  The Giants are on double revenge heading into McAdoo's second year.  The Giant's offense should be more comfortable running McAdoo's west coast shotgun no-huddle offensive system.  Giants have a o-line that is being re-shuffled because of the big loss at left-tackle, William Beatty, but it's not that much of a disadvantage.  The routes the receivers run are short to intermediate, giving Eli enough time to pass before the rush even gets to him.   I still haven't looked deeper into the fundamentals of NYG/DAL match-up, but that's just my initial take. 

The Cowboys' o-line/Murray dynamic is a level of production that I think cannot be reproduced or redistributed between McFadden/Randal in 2015.  It helps that McFadden runs well in zone-blocking systems.  So he should fit right in.  Where the problem lies with me is that McFadden/Murrary are simply not as talented as Murray.  As long as McFadden/Murray provide enough production to keep the Cowboys pass/run balance offense effective, I think that's all that matters.  

There are still two more months and players are dropping like flies.
 
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Posted: #12
Like the giants lean, in a division rivalry game 5.5 is too much to give.  The over is the best bet in that game though.
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by suuma:



Hey theclaw. I don't really understand the logic behind your intention. I would gladly get to know the math behind that regression model. Is it historic correlation between margin & win percentage?

Not considering overtime, they had the 5th-best true margin (off. ppg - def. ppg). The other four teams were GB, NE, SEA & DEN. There wasn't a huge difference between the Cowboys and the Patriots (0.9). Each of those five teams finished 12-4.

The only winning game they should have lost was at St. Louis. That would have made them a 11-5 team instead of 12-4. Their defense was really bad and everyone knows that. Despite their bad defense, they went 12-4 or atleast would have went 11-5.

Now they improved their defense significantly and upgraded the already-best offensive line in the league with La'el Collins and you say they will regress because they had 1.4 wins more than they should in 2014? That doesn't make any sense.

Regarding the game against the Giants, the Cowboys will literally dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides. I don't know the recent update of JPP, but I think there is a huge probability he won't play in week 1, so just tell me how the Giants want to get pressure on Tony Romo? He will have a field day. And the pass rush of Dallas - even without Hardy - should be enough to cause problems for Eli Manning who will have a worse offensive line than last year with Ereck Flowers starting at LT.




Based on Dallas's  points score/points given up a team can be expected to win 10.6 games, they won 12 games.

Basically this tells us last year Dallas was closer to a 10.6 win team than a 12 win team.

In other words they would have to improve just to get to 12 wins this season since they are really just a 10.6 win team not a 12 win team.

You can find this at football-refernece, looking back at history 

once teams get up to the 1.5 area most will have regressions the following season winning fewer games by about 2 to 3 on ave or whatever it is, would have to look it up.

Teams like the Giants would win on ave 2 to 3 more games the next years.
 
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Posted: #14
nyg dal games usually have high totals. could be a shootout
 
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Posted: #15
The only game that could have been lost that was won was the game against the Giants, a game in which Romo stood pat waiting for 8 seconds. I think the big thing you have to ask yourself is, where did the Giants improve?

They lost their left tackle on an already shaky offensive line. You say that the West Coast offense NEGATES the loss of a Left Tackle? That's simply not true. 

If you think their first round pick Erick Flowers is going to fill the void, good luck with that, he was beat like a rented mule last year by none other than Cowboys first year DE Randy Gregory. 

You probably think I'm some Dallas homer, but that is certainly not the case. You can see my leans for every game's over under and spread here:

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=102123238

I think you'll find that my film studies of every team show how dedicated I am to researching these players. 

Anyways, it doesn't matter because in my personal life I'm staying away from a 6 point spread. I will be betting the over and betting it huge. But I'm telling you guys, it is not the Cowboys offense that I am worried about blowing my bet for me and not putting up points, it is the Cowboys defense being much better than last year that makes me worry about my bet. I can see myself being heartbroken that the game ends something like 31-17 and I'm left holding the bag. 

How about this for a Dallas Cowboys stat... did you know that in the regular season, they were held to 17 or less points in EVERY loss?

And saying that Sean Lee being in the lineup is a negative is... well... absolutely out of left field. 
 
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Posted: #16
also, the Texans game, forgot about that. That's one where they had to go to overtime to put up 20 or they would have fallen curse to their 17 or under curse.
 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by porcelainfist:

The only game that could have been lost that was won was the game against the Giants, a game in which Romo stood pat waiting for 8 seconds. I think the big thing you have to ask yourself is, where did the Giants improve?

They lost their left tackle on an already shaky offensive line. You say that the West Coast offense NEGATES the loss of a Left Tackle? That's simply not true. 

If you think their first round pick Erick Flowers is going to fill the void, good luck with that, he was beat like a rented mule last year by none other than Cowboys first year DE Randy Gregory. 

You probably think I'm some Dallas homer, but that is certainly not the case. You can see my leans for every game's over under and spread here:

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=102123238

I think you'll find that my film studies of every team show how dedicated I am to researching these players. 

Anyways, it doesn't matter because in my personal life I'm staying away from a 6 point spread. I will be betting the over and betting it huge. But I'm telling you guys, it is not the Cowboys offense that I am worried about blowing my bet for me and not putting up points, it is the Cowboys defense being much better than last year that makes me worry about my bet. I can see myself being heartbroken that the game ends something like 31-17 and I'm left holding the bag. 

How about this for a Dallas Cowboys stat... did you know that in the regular season, they were held to 17 or less points in EVERY loss?

And saying that Sean Lee being in the lineup is a negative is... well... absolutely out of left field. 


Let me add something: if we take away the Redskins and Cardinals games in which Tony Romo was hurt (Redskins) or didn't play (Cardinals), the Cowboys scored 17 points or less against SF, HOU & PHI. Against Detroit in the playoffs, it was also a typical 17-point game if the Cowboys wouldn't have converted some fourth downs during the comeback. What did all four teams have in common at the time of the games? A very good pass rush. In those four games, Tony Romo was sacked 14 times for a loss of 110 yards. Can the Giants pass rush without JPP cause so much trouble against that Cowboys o-line? I don't think so.
 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by porcelainfist:

The only game that could have been lost that was won was the game against the Giants, a game in which Romo stood pat waiting for 8 seconds. I think the big thing you have to ask yourself is, where did the Giants improve?

They lost their left tackle on an already shaky offensive line. You say that the West Coast offense NEGATES the loss of a Left Tackle? That's simply not true. 

If you think their first round pick Erick Flowers is going to fill the void, good luck with that, he was beat like a rented mule last year by none other than Cowboys first year DE Randy Gregory. 

You probably think I'm some Dallas homer, but that is certainly not the case. You can see my leans for every game's over under and spread here:

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=102123238

I think you'll find that my film studies of every team show how dedicated I am to researching these players. 

Anyways, it doesn't matter because in my personal life I'm staying away from a 6 point spread. I will be betting the over and betting it huge. But I'm telling you guys, it is not the Cowboys offense that I am worried about blowing my bet for me and not putting up points, it is the Cowboys defense being much better than last year that makes me worry about my bet. I can see myself being heartbroken that the game ends something like 31-17 and I'm left holding the bag. 

How about this for a Dallas Cowboys stat... did you know that in the regular season, they were held to 17 or less points in EVERY loss?

And saying that Sean Lee being in the lineup is a negative is... well... absolutely out of left field. 

Just want to clarify that..

..a west coast offense does not negate a left-tackle.

In a West Coast no huddle, uptempo Shotgun offense with short to intermediate throws, Eli doesn't need time for his receivers to go vertical since that's not what the routes require from his receivers.  The routes are short and horizontal utilizing the quickness from ODB & Cruz.  If this offense required time for Eli so his receivers go vertical, then I would strongly agree a solid left-tackle and o-line would be highly beneficial.  
 
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Posted: #19

"In a West Coast no huddle, uptempo Shotgun offense with short to intermediate throws, Eli doesn't need time for his receivers to go vertical since that's not what the routes require from his receivers.  The routes are short and horizontal utilizing the quickness from ODB & Cruz.  If this offense required time for Eli so his receivers go vertical, then I would strongly agree a solid left-tackle and o-line would be highly beneficial.  "
 
Agreed, plus the addition Shane Vereen for quick screens will help as well.  The Giants coaches know the line is suspect and they will work around that,  Teams can still win by finding a way to work around their weak areas.
 
All the experts say the giants o-line is horrible they won't be competitive.  Sounds like last season when most experts said the Cowboys defense is really bad they won't be able to win.
So the Cowboys took there weakness out of the game by running the ball and controlling the clock, thus limiting the time on the field for the suspect defense.  The result was the cowboys going 12-4, which very few expected.
 
 
 

 
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Posted: #20
So, you don't think that an NFL defense would just go cover two or press man to take away the short throws? 


 
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Posted: #21
Bottom line, more money is put on cowboys every year than any other team. nfc east rivalry game, gimme the dog+points. Yellow flags insure a cover
 
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by porcelainfist:

So, you don't think that an NFL defense would just go cover two or press man to take away the short throws?


That's not what I said. I'm referring to the Giants base offense.
 
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Posted: #23
I'm sure the Giants would love to pay back the Cowboys in a big way in a double revenge. Road teams usually get the best of it in this series. 

Don't necessarily see a win but a Giants cover isn't impossible. Could be a 3-4 point game. 

How will Dallas secondary do against Randle, Cruz and ODB? Jury is still out on Dallas defense. last season the defense overachieved and made opportunistic plays. Will they get the lucky breaks this season? And as I remember the Dallas defense was still a glaring weakness last year(i know injuries played a part) but the best way to hide their weakness was to run the ball, chew up the clock and keep the defense off the field as much as possible. 
Sip on that plus money honey!
 
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Posted: #24
There are better games then the Giants v Boys to bet on here gentleman. I'm a long time Giants fan and obviously follow the NFC east closely and it's a crap shoot I wouldn't touch either side.

Divisional games are difficult to cap to begin with but throw a team like my unpredictable Giants in the mix and anything can happen. Id lean Cowboys ATM but I'm definitely staying away here, Maybe bet the over, but even then these teams still love to pound the rock.....Ugh just stay away.
 
 
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Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by lordbettington:

Like the giants lean, in a division rivalry game 5.5 is too much to give.  The over is the best bet in that game though.


Since 1989, a underdog of more than 5 points in a divisional game within the NFC East is 98-95 ATS.

So it's not too much to give I guess.
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