mTbaKer's NFL Picks- Week 14

Ok here come the write-ups.  I flirted with the Eagles but hedged that play.  I added a play to replace that, and switched up the units a tiny bit so here we go no goin back from here.

Bengals -3 (+105) to win 45 units

One team is struggling losing 4 of their last 5, while the other is on fire winning 6 in a row.  Now I tell you that the team that’s won 6 in a row is getting 3 points jeez that’s easy.  Not so fast.  The Bengals are in a great spot.

The Bengals are fighting for their playoff lives as they are in a log jam with the Broncos, Raiders, Jets, and Titans at 7-5 for the last 2 playoff seeds.  With the Raiders and Broncos going for the division, the best the Bengals can do is come 6^th and believe me at home they will be fighting for their playoff lives in this one.   On offense the Texans survived the past 2 weeks with backup quarterbacks in Leinart and Yates.  All Yates had to do last week was manage the game and make a couple throws to get the job done against the Falcons.  Last week he was at home and targeted the great wideout, Andre Johnson, and hit him for big plays against a disgusting Falcons secondary.  This week, Yates is in the cold outdoors, he’ll have to deal with the crowd noise, and his favourite target and safety net in Andre Johnson is injured.  Usually the Texans would still be fine with their running game but this week they go up against the Bengals who are ranked 3^rd in the league against the run.  Many people are worrying about Cincy’s run D saying that it’s really wearing down of late, but I disagree.  They held the Steelers Mendenhall to 66 and 44 yards rushing and Peyton Hillis to only 65 yards.  The only game that they got chewed up in was against the Ravens and a fresh Ray Rice off of a physical Steelers game.  This week with Andre Johnson out and Yates in at QB they can flood the box and limit the great running attack of Foster and Tate.

On offense the Bengals won’t have an easy time scoring.  The Texans have a great run D and pass D, and Chris Benson hasn’t been anything special this season.  But you know what, Dalton and the Bengals put up 17 against the Steelers, a whopping 24 in Baltimore WITHOUT THEIR BEST WIDE RECEIVER AJ GREEN, and 23 against a good Browns secondary.  Yes the Bengals only put up 7 last week, but in their first drive they had a Touchdown called back and then had a field goal blocked.  They also had a couple drives stall and some turnovers in a meltdown.  The fact is that Cincy has gone toe-to-toe with the best in the AFC the last couple of weeks and won’t be intimidated by this good Texans team.  Dalton has done well and won’t feel pressured to put up a ton of points with Yates in for Houston.  The Bengals wideout A.J. Green will get some grabs against Jonathan Joseph as that will be a great matchup and I really think Simpson can dominate Kareem Jackson.

Many people worry about the Bengals being tired after playing physical teams in the Browns, Ravens, and Steelers the past 4 weeks, but what about the Texans?  The Texans played a physical Jags team and grinded out another win against the Falcons.  In both of those games the defenses had to step up and carry the team, and I think fatigue might start to kick in for a game like this against what is still a good Bengals team desperate for a playoff spot.

Added Play:

Saints -3 (-116) to win 30 units

I rarely play short road favourites in the NFL but I think this play has a ton of value despite the line reversing from -4.5 to -3 even with the public all over the Saints.  At this price the Saints have a ton of value.

“As they plunge into the final quarter of the season on a four-game winning streak, the 9-3 Saints are sporting the same record they did at this point a year ago.  But after improving to 10-3 last December, they didn't finish theway they wanted to. They dropped two of their final three games and closed with an 11-5 mark before laying an egg in a first-round playoff game at Seattle.

While they'll reference that unsatisfying finish and make it a point to this year's club, they know things are a lot better now. They seem to be playing with more confidence, much like they did when they won the Super Bowl in 2009, as they head into a critical stretch of games.

In the end, coach Sean Payton said it should tell them if they're better than they were a year ago when they won six games in a row before faltering in the final weeks of the season.

"We'll see," he said. "We got on a roll last year, similar to what we're on now. The great thing about our game (is) we get to see."”

"That was the goal, to see where we stacked up, how we measured up," Payton said. "I like the way we responded to that."

All week long people have been saying that the Saints can’t win on the road.  They’ve lost to the Seahawks, the Rams of all teams, and the depleted Bucs on the road outdoors.  They know that full well and are getting sick of hearing about it.  They also know that with 2^nd seed in the NFC within reach, and a with a win and an ATL loss they clinch the division this week.  This team wants to make a statement here and show the NFL that they are a legitimate team that can win on the run.  Anyways the Saints are going against the Titans who are probably the biggest fraud of a team sitting at 7-5 in the NFL.   THEY SUCK and have no business being within a sniff of the postseason.  Who have the Titans beaten, the mighty Colts, the quitting Buccaneers, the hospitalized Bills, the Tebow-less Broncos, the one-dimensional Panthers, and of course how could we forget the fearsome Browns.  HERE’S HOW THE TITANS HAVE DONE AGAINST QUALITY TEAMS THIS YEAR: 41-7 LOSS VS. HOU, 38-14 LOSS AT PITT, 23-17 LOSS TO THE FALCONS  AT ATL WHERE THEY WERE DOWN DOUBLE DIGITS MOST OF THE GAME ,AND A LOSS TO THE BENGALS AT HOME.  I forgot, they did beat the Ravens in Week 2, but the Ravens were hungover after beating Big Ben for the first time in over 2 years.  The Titans aren’t a playoff team and they don’t have confidence beating good teams.

On offense the Titans should put up some points against the Saints but I don’t think that it’ll be as easy as people think.  The Saints have a 14^th ranked pass D and go up against a mediocre Titans receiving set.  One of the Titans best receivers in NATE WASHINGTON IS QUESTIONABLE AND VERY BANGED UP so the Saints should hold em down.  I know the Saints are one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, but they are very quick.  They struggle a lot with big running backs.  However, Chris Johnson is a smaller running back and he won’t run over the Saints.  The Saints LB’s can use their speed to get him.  I know Johnson torched the Bills and Bucs but those teams are just pitiful right now, I’d like to see what he does against a veteran Saints squad.  With Washington banged up they’ll really be able to focus on the run.

Everyone is concerned with the Saints stopping the run, however no one wonders about how the Titans are gonna stop the run.  The Saints are ranked 3^rd in rushing in the NFL believe it or not and even with an injured Mark Ingram, Sproles and Thomas are more than capable of running on this Tennessee run D.  The Titans CB McCourty is banged up and another one of their CBs in Thomas Campbell is banged up as well.  That’s not good when you’re goin up against a red-hot Drew Brees and that explosive Saints O.

YES, I think it’s as easy as it looks- Saints roll here and the public cashes big here.

Bears +3.5 (-110) to win 35 units

Shit I’m going against the Chose One Tim Tebow.  I think this is week to best fade him though.  Last week I had the Bears -7 against KC, and they were not sharp.  They were lacksidasical, and were not focused leading to a disgusting hail mary touchdown for KC, and numerous dropped balls by Bears receivers and penalities for lining up in illegal formations.  I still feel the Bears can do some damage, and after losing to a rookie QB in Tyler Palko, they’ll be much more focused and pumped up to bring the golden boy Tim Tebow down to Earth.

There’s no team equipped to slow down an offense like Tim Tebow unlike the Bears.  The Bears have a great front seven and they are fast.  Peppers, Urlacher, Briggs and Roach are all fast and intelligent and can contain Tebow, spy him, and rush him.  The Bears have been lights out against the run of late.  Tim Tebow threw the ball well last week.  Then again, my grandma could throw the ball against that pitiful Vikings secondary.  Going up against physical, play-making defensive backs in Jennings and Tillman, the Bears will shut down the Broncos meager passing attack. 

On the other side of the ball many feel as though the Bears won’t move the ball against the Broncos defense.  The Broncos defense has made some big strides after such a dismal start to the season, but there are signs that they are starting to head back to their old ways.  First off, THE BRONCOS BEST DEFENSIVE PLAYER AND MAIN REASON FOR THEIR WINNING WAYS, VON MILLER, IS PLAYING WITH A CAST ON.  His tackling won’t be as crisp and his rushing and catching won’t be as good as it usually is.  People tend to forget that THE BRONCOS JUST GAVE UP 32 POINTS TO THE VIKINGS OF ALL TEAMS WITHOUT ADRIAN PETERSON IN THE LINEUP.  The Vikings chewed up the Broncos on the ground getting 91 yards for more than 4 yards a carry with Gerhart, and the Broncos gave up a whopping 137 yards to Ryan Matthews the week before.  Last week Matt Forte got injured.  However, running back Bell came in and did well and Marion Barber has been running the rock well the past couple of weeks.  In terms of the passing game, the Broncos are in the bottom half of the league in pass D.  Ponder, a mediocre quarterback torched with only one weapon in Percy Harvin.  The Bears have many wideouts in Roy Williams, Johnny Knox, and Hester.  The Bears left a ton of points on the field last week.  Earl Bennett dropped an easy touchdown catch, Marion Barber got a touchdown but it got called back cause he lined up offside, Roy Williams had the ball at the 1-yard line but simply muffed the catch and it led to an interception, and finally the Bears had a missed field goal.  I expect these wideouts to redeem themselves and Hanie to feel more and more comfortable.  I also think the Bears will get the running game going to help the pass protection.

The Broncos are favourites for the first time this year and they do not have a team that can blow anyone out.  I’ll take a proud Bears squad that plays their best as the underdog.

Jaguars +2.5 (+105) to win 30 units

I got fucked on this line pretty badly, by locking it in on Friday before it went to +3.  Honestly, I don’t think it’s going to matter this line screams value.  With the Jaguars getting blown out by the Chargers on primetime Monday Night Football it looks like the Bucs are an easy pick.  Unforunately, many people forget that the Bucs have been shit on the past month and are on a 6-game losing streak.  The Buccaneers let a bad Panthers team come on their home turf and win 38-19.  They let the Titans run all over them, they got blown out by the Texans at home 37-9.  Not only are the Bucs losing, but I feel that their head coach is losing the respect of his players.  He called out a DL during the game in front of the fans so that’ll piss off the lineman and the agent said the player was distraught at what happened.  Lagerrette Blount called out his team when he only got 20-something rushing yards blaming it on the rookie quarterback.  Blount also got trouble with the cops this past week.

The Buccaneers can’t stop the run worth a lick.  It’s a shame they’ll have to face one of the most physical and talented running backs in Maurice Jones-Drew who’ll run all over this pathetic run D ranked in the bottom 5 in the NFL.  The Jaguars got blown out on Monday night, but their offense looked decent putting together some nice TD drives.  Gabbert threw the ball well and this week he faces a Tampa team ranked second last in the league and missing their best defensive back leader and leader of the D in Talib.  With Jones-Drew creating a lot of 3^rd and shorts Gabbert will do well here.

The Jags are banged up especially in the secondary.  Luckily, this week they face a Tampa team with a bottom 10-ranked pass offense led by quarterback Josh Freeman who has a bum shoulder.  I mentioned Blount earlier and I think his struggles continue this week.  The Jags get DT Knighton back for his 2^nd game since being injured and that should shore up the line.  The Jags have a physical front 7 and can slow down the run.

The Jaguars went through a lot last week getting a new coach and a new owner and having to play on primetime in front of a packed house, which they are not used to.  Now they get to play in a quiet game, and settle down to get a win for their new coach before heading out on the road, a much more comfortable situation.  One team is playing hard for their coach, while the other has mailed it in.  Last week the Jaguars let the Chargers break their 6-game losing streak, this week they won’t let the Buccaneers end theirs.

GL

Cmon Bills cash my stinking win total!

NFL Preseason-to-date: 7-1-0 (+21.66 units)

NFL Regular Season-to-date: 42-35-1 (+232.57 units)

Futures:

Jacksonville Jaguars Under 6 Wins (+155) to win 50 units

Buffalo Bills Over 5 Wins (-150) to win 15 units

Buffalo Bills Over 5.5 Wins (Even) to win 15 units

49ers to win NFC West Division (+272) to win 30 units

Orangemen44, FadeOnly, smartbets, instinctpicks,  and the1andonly12 

I think the Broncos D is good but it hasn't been playing that well against the run lately, Von Miller is in a cast, and the Bears left a ton of points on the field because they didn't take the Chiefs seriously last week and were not sharp I think they get it done this week- thanks for the support man!

I got you with Balty @ Pitt, and SF vs NYG

You got me with NE @ Phi can you even it up this week?

Well you do have god on your side  so it'll be interesting haha.

And please get your Giants to win this Sunday, I hate the Cowboys

Quote Originally Posted by aggieaccountant:

Good luck to you.  I think this Denver defense is too good for Hanie & Co. though.  We'll see which one of us is right. 

Thanks man!  It's gonna be a good one I can see why people like Denver but I really like the Bears here- you got the Tebow magic and loud Denver crowd and I got the mean defense and disrespected Hanie and veteran Bears team- should be fun game I'm looking forward to the most this week for sure

The Bengals are still in the race for the playoffs and they have gone toe-to-toe with the Steelers and Ravens.  They have also scored on those defenses even without A.J. Green in one of those performances.  I think the Bengals are confident and can get the job done as they won't have to worry about the Texans passing the ball without Andre Johnson.  The Texans have shit on me 3 times this year when I have faded them so you'll definitely have that trend on your side this week.

BOL man!

Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:

Lean your way on all those buddy, bad news for you as I can't pick my nose this year.

Nice spot for Cincy. Tampa has no business being road favs, not only are they a mess but I don't believe they have the mental makeup required to be road favs. I think the Broncos really struggle to move the ball and wouldn't be surprised if the Bears moved the ball a bit either but tough to go against the Tebow magic. Lean Philly as well, if they show up ready to play they are better than Miami.

GL this week buddy keep ripping this shit up. Looking forward to your writeups as always.

Ya the Tampa line is a complete joke, people forget that they got blown out by the Panthers at home and are on a 6-game losing streak and I think they've quit as many games in their losing streak have been over after 5 minutes, really like Cincy as Glyde had a great write-up on it that made me turn my head,  and it's tough fading Tebow but the Bears can get it done witht their underdog mentality, hopefully Charles Barkely didn't jinx them with his Tebow comments today.  I hedged the Eagles just couldn't trust them.

Keep picking your nose harder til you find the gold, you're capping the games right just getting a bad bounce here and there and picking the wrong play sometimes.  You're gonna get it going and you better cause I wanna see your plays and great insight for the playoff stretch.

Hope Brees airs it out on that shitty Titans D and puts some points up for you!

Gabbert threw the ball decently and led some good drives on primetime last week.  This week he faces a horrendous Bucs team with no pass D and no Talib.  Plus the Bucs can't stop anyone on the run leading to short-yardage situations for Gabbert to work with.

No value on Tampa all the value and reasoning on the Jagaurs.

No worries.  I don't trust em.  I like the fact that they are amazing off Bye Weeks and long weeks having games on Thursdays with Reid at the helm.  They also are getting healthy.  They play a tough Dolphins team and I really wanted Maclin back at full health but he pulled his hammy and is questionable for tomorrow.  I want him in because I think it would change Desean Jackson's attitude.  I lean Eagles but can't trust em, not a bad a play but that's my reasoning for the hedge. BOL

Totally agree man, Price's agent said he was stunned that Morris called him out like that, Talib is out, this team can't tackle to save it's life and they are calling out each other, they look deflated and are tuning out a young coach in Morris, when a team that has that much talent and almost beat the Packers is getting blown out consistently and not making tackles you know that's a bad sign.  I like the hungry Jags here.

I lean Under but it's so low and Tebow just put up some points and the Bears left a lot of points on the field last week so I can't take the Under here.

Great write-up on the Bears.  Love the insight! Ya the way they contain Vick and mobile QB's makes me love em here in an underdog role and I think Hanie is improving each week although that may appear contrary to his stats.  A catch here and there make a big difference and the Bears will be focused and hungry to end Tebow's magical run.

Fantastic read as always

Thanks for all your hard work man