Posted:
#1
I don't really bet on preseason, it's tough to come up with any concrete analysis or angles to take advantage of, but I usually will make some picks each week and throw 20 bucks on them just to get me warmed up for the real season. Basically treat it like what it is for the teams playing in it- meaningless in the big picture but still nice to win at rather than lose. But this will actually be a 1 unit play, as I think we have some decent angles.
Carolina -1
I've seen people mostly picking the Texans here, and the line has now moved from 3 down to 1. Line moves in preseason lol. So the value is there now. I can only assume people are basing this on Cam being held out, and BOB's Texans going 4-0 last year in preseason, and usually doing well in it. People think 'BOB takes pre seriously.' Also, they have Savage and Watson trying to show they deserve the starting job angle.
So I'll start with that. First, neither Savage or Watson has thrown a TD in the NFL. Second, they just announced that Savage is the starter for now. It makes sense, but the thing is, this is a very early preseason game in the middle of the week, and the Texans are literally just after naming the starter. They're still figuring things out. And this is an offense that was the worst ever of a team to make the playoffs. They have sucked on offense for a while, and so they brought in Osweiler, dumped a ton of money on him, then jettisoned him when he didn't improve the offense. But NO ONE it seems can improve this offense. I don't get why BOB has this rep as a QB whisperer, to me he doesn't know what to do and is constantly chopping and changing as a result.
So what if Cam doesn't play? The backup Derek Anderson is a very capable vet and so is the 3rd stringer Joe Webb. I don't think Watson will do much in his first appearance, rookies rarely do, even in pre. And like I said, neither he nor Savage have thrown a TD. If they put up a goose egg you are pinning your 4th Q hopes on Brandon Weeden.
Also, the Panthers have McCaffrey who has been getting rave reviews in camp (pinch of salt applies I know, everyone looks great in camp), and is likely to get a lot of touches as Stewart won't play much. Also, their WRs really have a lot to prove after last season, and they have talent there. I know the Texans have a great D but hopefully McCaffrey and those guys will relish the challenge. Mose Frazier was signed as an undrafted FA and the former Memphis star has been making circus catches in camp and he should see a lot of NFLX action too.
Another angle - Carolina is after a horrible super bowl hangover year. Even an NFLX win would go some way to getting the horrible taste out of their mouth, especially at home. To score on the Texans starting D would be a huge boost morale wise.
And before you go creaming over the Texans 4-0 NFLX record last year, look at the dates they played their preseason games the last few years. The last time they had one on August 9th was 2014, and they got smoked, in fact they were SHUT OUT by the Cards.
Finally, look more closely at the Texans schedule. They play NE in pre next week, a team they HATE, who always beats them and embarassed them twice last year. Now, a 'look ahead' angle in preseason is a bit of a stretch, but combine that with the fact that they play NE in the reg season Week 3, and their home opener is Jax, Week 2 is Thurs Night at Cinci, then the Titans, KC, Cleveland at home. A division game home opener, followed by a short week road game, followed by a major revenge spot on the road, and then back home for a divsion game. And all vs conference opponents for 5 weeks til the bye. That's a lot of VERY important games very early, with a lot of travel and tough spots.
Every team's focus is more on the first week of Sept rather than the first week of August. But for the Texans it is especially so. They will not want to tip their hand at all. They will not want to get their young QB's hurt or dent their confidence. And their offense already sucks. It's way too early for the Texans to care about a road game out of conference on a Wednesday night, even the young guys. Carolina won't be running the same stuff anyway because Newton is out, but DA has been there for a while and has played well other times Cam was injured, and they start with SF, a team they already smacked last year and I really think that while no preseason team is motivated to the hilt, I think the SB hangover team who KNOWS who their QB is for the entire year (if the shoulder holds up) is going to be more prepared.
Damn, that was a long writeup for a preseason game but hey, haven't done one in a while. Feels good, hopefully this cashes and I'll feel even better on Thurs.
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