I'll be backing the two teams that went out and actually won their playoff games, the Cardinals and the Steelers.
I'm going to review last week to explain this weeks plays -
AFC
Tennessee - dominated and shreeded a "great" Ravens defense. Lets face facts, Tennessee didn't make the plays, the Ravens forced a few key turnovers, and took Johnson off the field. Had Johnson remained in that game and kept the offense balanced Tennessee was on their way to a blowout win. It didn't happen, they didn't make the plays, the Ravens are lucky to still be playing. Outside of one deep completion to Mason the offense did not show up. Collins was untouched in the first half.
Pittsburgh - rested and confident, Parker looked healthy for the first time in a long time, this team dominated from start to finish. Big Ban played very well, and was not intimidated by the rush (huge factor) They stuffed the run game, and even though Rivers was able to complete 2 long plays (opening drive TD, and the long screen to Sproles) they were totally shut down by the best defense in football.
Adding to what my eyes saw, the Ravens did not leave Tennessee healthy. They are coming into Pittsburgh this weekend beat up and overmatched, this is going to be a blowout for the Steelers, don't even think about taking those points.
3rd...this is how the Ravens have played all season, they hurt their opponents with the hard hitting and put them out of commission. They forced fumbles game after game after game.
The commentators were saying all of 1st quarter and the entire game Ravens looked tired, but they were still able to put a hard hitting game on Tenn and forced turnovers.
Not to take any credit away from Pitt but they played a Chargers team that has a bad reputation as choking on the road....LT was not in uniform and little Sproles was non-effective and Chargers was still able to hang 24pts on them. Ok so the argument is, those were garbage pts but they are still pts.
Some reasons I see Pitt backers chalking the -6 is.........wagerline probably showed there is a higher percentage on Balty 64% than there are on Pitt so the old fade the public play. Pitt have won by an avg. of 3pts against Balty in their L2 meetings and because of the high chalk (-6), most are saying the books know something we don't and they are trying to get the squares to bite on the +6, therefore I am going to give the chalk. Am I correct?
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Quote Originally Posted by 3rd_and_Long:
I'll be backing the two teams that went out and actually won their playoff games, the Cardinals and the Steelers.
I'm going to review last week to explain this weeks plays -
AFC
Tennessee - dominated and shreeded a "great" Ravens defense. Lets face facts, Tennessee didn't make the plays, the Ravens forced a few key turnovers, and took Johnson off the field. Had Johnson remained in that game and kept the offense balanced Tennessee was on their way to a blowout win. It didn't happen, they didn't make the plays, the Ravens are lucky to still be playing. Outside of one deep completion to Mason the offense did not show up. Collins was untouched in the first half.
Pittsburgh - rested and confident, Parker looked healthy for the first time in a long time, this team dominated from start to finish. Big Ban played very well, and was not intimidated by the rush (huge factor) They stuffed the run game, and even though Rivers was able to complete 2 long plays (opening drive TD, and the long screen to Sproles) they were totally shut down by the best defense in football.
Adding to what my eyes saw, the Ravens did not leave Tennessee healthy. They are coming into Pittsburgh this weekend beat up and overmatched, this is going to be a blowout for the Steelers, don't even think about taking those points.
3rd...this is how the Ravens have played all season, they hurt their opponents with the hard hitting and put them out of commission. They forced fumbles game after game after game.
The commentators were saying all of 1st quarter and the entire game Ravens looked tired, but they were still able to put a hard hitting game on Tenn and forced turnovers.
Not to take any credit away from Pitt but they played a Chargers team that has a bad reputation as choking on the road....LT was not in uniform and little Sproles was non-effective and Chargers was still able to hang 24pts on them. Ok so the argument is, those were garbage pts but they are still pts.
Some reasons I see Pitt backers chalking the -6 is.........wagerline probably showed there is a higher percentage on Balty 64% than there are on Pitt so the old fade the public play. Pitt have won by an avg. of 3pts against Balty in their L2 meetings and because of the high chalk (-6), most are saying the books know something we don't and they are trying to get the squares to bite on the +6, therefore I am going to give the chalk. Am I correct?
Tex - I saw all I needed to see on the field last week. Parker & Ben played very well, and that has been the only thing lacking on this Steelers team in my opinion. I think Baltimore gets rolled here, despite the close matchups the last two times. The line does say a lot at -6. I'm looking to play an alternate line on Pitt at anything up to -13.
I also think the fact that they have been hiding Flacco will come back and bite the Ravens in the ass this week. They have put hin in mothballs with the playcalling, will he be able to turn it back on this week when he has to?
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Tex - I saw all I needed to see on the field last week. Parker & Ben played very well, and that has been the only thing lacking on this Steelers team in my opinion. I think Baltimore gets rolled here, despite the close matchups the last two times. The line does say a lot at -6. I'm looking to play an alternate line on Pitt at anything up to -13.
I also think the fact that they have been hiding Flacco will come back and bite the Ravens in the ass this week. They have put hin in mothballs with the playcalling, will he be able to turn it back on this week when he has to?
Hightower sucks, and so does the corpse of Edgerrin James. The only reason they got 143 rush yards against Carolina was because of Jake Delhomme. They had to kill so much clock, it literally forced them to rush 43 times, and they only got 3 yards per tote. They averaged 3 on the nose against the Falcons as well (28/86). Panthers and Falcons do not posses good run defenses.
Arizona is a text-book definition of a one dimensional team. They cannot win a game if you take away their passing game.
Philly is going to blitz the bejesus out of Warner from every conceivable angle, that are brillantly disguised. Johnson's claim to fame is the ability to take away, or limit the best thing the opposing offense can do.
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Hightower sucks, and so does the corpse of Edgerrin James. The only reason they got 143 rush yards against Carolina was because of Jake Delhomme. They had to kill so much clock, it literally forced them to rush 43 times, and they only got 3 yards per tote. They averaged 3 on the nose against the Falcons as well (28/86). Panthers and Falcons do not posses good run defenses.
Arizona is a text-book definition of a one dimensional team. They cannot win a game if you take away their passing game.
Philly is going to blitz the bejesus out of Warner from every conceivable angle, that are brillantly disguised. Johnson's claim to fame is the ability to take away, or limit the best thing the opposing offense can do.
Why do people have to read so much into these games. The Cards just beat the crap out of one of the best teams in the NFC away. Philly is too one dimensional, and Westbrook isn't anywhere near 100%.
'Zona moneyline for me, in what could turn out to be a real blowout!
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Why do people have to read so much into these games. The Cards just beat the crap out of one of the best teams in the NFC away. Philly is too one dimensional, and Westbrook isn't anywhere near 100%.
'Zona moneyline for me, in what could turn out to be a real blowout!
3rd....this is Flacco's 2nd go round at Heinz Field this season, he knows what to expect this Sunday. I am sure the feelings he has playing there the 1st time and now are 2 different feelings. He's knows what to expect now in terms of environment, crowd noise, the condition of the field, etc...
Go back to wagerline.com and look at the % that was played on Balty since the Miami game. You will see the % didn't make the different on how the games played out. Balty still won & covered.
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3rd....this is Flacco's 2nd go round at Heinz Field this season, he knows what to expect this Sunday. I am sure the feelings he has playing there the 1st time and now are 2 different feelings. He's knows what to expect now in terms of environment, crowd noise, the condition of the field, etc...
Go back to wagerline.com and look at the % that was played on Balty since the Miami game. You will see the % didn't make the different on how the games played out. Balty still won & covered.
Why do people have to read so much into these games. The Cards just beat the crap out of one of the best teams in the NFC away. Philly is too one dimensional, and Westbrook isn't anywhere near 100%.
'Zona moneyline for me, in what could turn out to be a real blowout!
No offense, but you could replace the cards in the sentence above with the eagles and it would read the same. Both of these teams beat quality oppenents away. I hope this is not your only angle on this game and if it is you should probably put your money to better use considering you have no idea how to cap a game.
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Quote Originally Posted by charlielo55:
Why do people have to read so much into these games. The Cards just beat the crap out of one of the best teams in the NFC away. Philly is too one dimensional, and Westbrook isn't anywhere near 100%.
'Zona moneyline for me, in what could turn out to be a real blowout!
No offense, but you could replace the cards in the sentence above with the eagles and it would read the same. Both of these teams beat quality oppenents away. I hope this is not your only angle on this game and if it is you should probably put your money to better use considering you have no idea how to cap a game.
Here is my take the Cardinals only victory against a Top Ten defense was the Cowboys end of story (playoffs included).
Zona gave up over 26 pts a game only the Broncos Cheifs Rams and Lions gave up more pts not good company
I dont like betting against the home dog cause it usually bites but thats all I see is Arizona at home I dont think that enough for a W
As for the Ravens/Steelers. I dont know how banged up the Ravens are but I would have to say beating a team three times in the same year is rare. The Ravens lost by three and four points respectively lets say that were to happen again Ravens cover.
Secondly its not like the Ravens are lacking any confidence in this game they just want the scoreboard to reflect what they know they can do...
I think that Tennessee was the best but failed to execute...
So Ravens and Eagles
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Here is my take the Cardinals only victory against a Top Ten defense was the Cowboys end of story (playoffs included).
Zona gave up over 26 pts a game only the Broncos Cheifs Rams and Lions gave up more pts not good company
I dont like betting against the home dog cause it usually bites but thats all I see is Arizona at home I dont think that enough for a W
As for the Ravens/Steelers. I dont know how banged up the Ravens are but I would have to say beating a team three times in the same year is rare. The Ravens lost by three and four points respectively lets say that were to happen again Ravens cover.
Secondly its not like the Ravens are lacking any confidence in this game they just want the scoreboard to reflect what they know they can do...
I think that Tennessee was the best but failed to execute...
i'm no big Eagles fan... but with every thread/post i see with someone bashing the Eagles, i like them more and more this week... mostly because of the irrationality of the arguments against them...
i just might have to play this game afterall...
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i'm no big Eagles fan... but with every thread/post i see with someone bashing the Eagles, i like them more and more this week... mostly because of the irrationality of the arguments against them...
Westbrook is not even in the same league as Michael Turner or Deangelo Williams (two RBs that had their first ever productive seasons)...
Donovan McNabb would not have benefitted at all from the presence of Fitz or Boldin (if those two were on the Eagles)...
that the wind in NY adversely affects the home team, but not the road team...
and that the Eagles defense only APPEARS to be better than the Cards defense because the Eagles got to play against weaker offenses (like the Cowboys twice, Giants 3 times, Falcons, Bears, 49ers and Seahawks [the Cards played both of these teams twice, by the way], and oh yea... Arizona)...
i feel my brain being enlarged with every new tidbit of information...
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so far i have learned that:
Westbrook is not even in the same league as Michael Turner or Deangelo Williams (two RBs that had their first ever productive seasons)...
Donovan McNabb would not have benefitted at all from the presence of Fitz or Boldin (if those two were on the Eagles)...
that the wind in NY adversely affects the home team, but not the road team...
and that the Eagles defense only APPEARS to be better than the Cards defense because the Eagles got to play against weaker offenses (like the Cowboys twice, Giants 3 times, Falcons, Bears, 49ers and Seahawks [the Cards played both of these teams twice, by the way], and oh yea... Arizona)...
i feel my brain being enlarged with every new tidbit of information...
3rd - Great analysis and I hope you are right and it is that easy! Can you even imagine an Eagles vs. Ravens Superbowl - Neither team would even score a TD and one of them would win like 5-3!
At least a Cards vs. Steelers matchup will give us some points and the Steelers can give up some big plays in the passing game but I am getting ahead of myself. We will have 2 weeks to talk about the BIG game. I just hope we get some better football this Sunday! The Steelers will get pressure on young Joe and the Ravens are gased after the slug fest last weekend. The Chargers didn't put up much of a fight and the Steelers are fresh and healthy! You couldn't have laid things out better! I do worry a little about the Cards deflating or cracking under pressure as the Eagles have been there and done that, but then again I guess Warner and Edge have too. That should be the good game!!
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3rd - Great analysis and I hope you are right and it is that easy! Can you even imagine an Eagles vs. Ravens Superbowl - Neither team would even score a TD and one of them would win like 5-3!
At least a Cards vs. Steelers matchup will give us some points and the Steelers can give up some big plays in the passing game but I am getting ahead of myself. We will have 2 weeks to talk about the BIG game. I just hope we get some better football this Sunday! The Steelers will get pressure on young Joe and the Ravens are gased after the slug fest last weekend. The Chargers didn't put up much of a fight and the Steelers are fresh and healthy! You couldn't have laid things out better! I do worry a little about the Cards deflating or cracking under pressure as the Eagles have been there and done that, but then again I guess Warner and Edge have too. That should be the good game!!
this isn't anaylsis it's complete spin, i'll do it the other way to illustrate
Cardinals come in after being gifted the game by the Panthers. If you want to mention one dimensional teams these guys are right at the rop. Jake Delhomme gift wrapped this one with 6 personal turnovers and Car coaching gave up on the run (their only chance) way too early. On top of that while Fitz had a fantastic game he was still be single covered in the second quarter after he had over a 100 yards receiving! The Panthers QB and coach did more to lose this game than the Cards did to win it.
The eagles and ravens on the other hand played fantastic bend but not break defense in the divisional round allowing a combined 1 touchdown. Ask any defensive coordinator in the league if he'd rather surreneder 500 yards and 13 points or 250 yards and 27 points and guess what he's gonna tell you. Mind you the Ten turnovers were not guys running in space and simply dropping the ball, they had their bodies physically removed from the football. The killer interception came in the form of a back foot throw due to excessive pressure. These were not "breaks" for the Ravens D. They were takeaways not giveaways, unlike Carolina's terrible turnovers.
How about a little credit for the Eagles lines where the game was won in the trenches. The D line never let Eli get comfortable in his home stadium while the O line provided McNabb with another post giants game clean jersey. The D line also put the game away with two stuffs of 4th and short.
The Steelers beat a .500 team without their best player, call me insane, but I don't find that too impressive. Despite absolutely no threat out of the backfield Rivers was still able to throw for 3 TDs and over 300 yards in only 3 quarters (he threw just one pass for an INT in the 3rd quarter).
Philadelphia played a better game than the Giants.
Baltimore stole a game from Tennesee (they stole it, weren't given it)
Arizona showed up, which is all it takes when the opposition's QB plays THAT bad.
Pittsburgh beat a .500 team at home, congratulations.
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this isn't anaylsis it's complete spin, i'll do it the other way to illustrate
Cardinals come in after being gifted the game by the Panthers. If you want to mention one dimensional teams these guys are right at the rop. Jake Delhomme gift wrapped this one with 6 personal turnovers and Car coaching gave up on the run (their only chance) way too early. On top of that while Fitz had a fantastic game he was still be single covered in the second quarter after he had over a 100 yards receiving! The Panthers QB and coach did more to lose this game than the Cards did to win it.
The eagles and ravens on the other hand played fantastic bend but not break defense in the divisional round allowing a combined 1 touchdown. Ask any defensive coordinator in the league if he'd rather surreneder 500 yards and 13 points or 250 yards and 27 points and guess what he's gonna tell you. Mind you the Ten turnovers were not guys running in space and simply dropping the ball, they had their bodies physically removed from the football. The killer interception came in the form of a back foot throw due to excessive pressure. These were not "breaks" for the Ravens D. They were takeaways not giveaways, unlike Carolina's terrible turnovers.
How about a little credit for the Eagles lines where the game was won in the trenches. The D line never let Eli get comfortable in his home stadium while the O line provided McNabb with another post giants game clean jersey. The D line also put the game away with two stuffs of 4th and short.
The Steelers beat a .500 team without their best player, call me insane, but I don't find that too impressive. Despite absolutely no threat out of the backfield Rivers was still able to throw for 3 TDs and over 300 yards in only 3 quarters (he threw just one pass for an INT in the 3rd quarter).
Philadelphia played a better game than the Giants.
Baltimore stole a game from Tennesee (they stole it, weren't given it)
Arizona showed up, which is all it takes when the opposition's QB plays THAT bad.
Pittsburgh beat a .500 team at home, congratulations.
Exactly...I think there will be plenty of AZ backers just because so many people (Cowboys and Giants fans, ahem) can't stand them/don't think they deserve to be here.
You got to seperate the fans from the gamblers. Fans are rooting for Zona because they haven't won a playoff game in like 40yrs until this season and they have no business being here, the gamblers going to put $$$ on Philly. At least that's how I read it.
So the key thing here is seperating fans from gamblers.
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Quote Originally Posted by yosef:
Exactly...I think there will be plenty of AZ backers just because so many people (Cowboys and Giants fans, ahem) can't stand them/don't think they deserve to be here.
You got to seperate the fans from the gamblers. Fans are rooting for Zona because they haven't won a playoff game in like 40yrs until this season and they have no business being here, the gamblers going to put $$$ on Philly. At least that's how I read it.
So the key thing here is seperating fans from gamblers.
A lot of casual bettors, "fans" betting this time of year, too.
The fans generally put $10 on a game and gets plaster and excited. The gamblers feel the crunch since there's only 3 games left, generally they'll put more than their typical season bet in the Championships/Bowl game. Don't kid yourself, it's more than $10.
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Quote Originally Posted by yosef:
A lot of casual bettors, "fans" betting this time of year, too.
The fans generally put $10 on a game and gets plaster and excited. The gamblers feel the crunch since there's only 3 games left, generally they'll put more than their typical season bet in the Championships/Bowl game. Don't kid yourself, it's more than $10.
The fans generally put $10 on a game and gets plaster and excited. The gamblers feel the crunch since there's only 3 games left, generally they'll put more than their typical season bet in the Championships/Bowl game. Don't kid yourself, it's more than $10.
Somebody loan me a hundred!
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Quote Originally Posted by texancapper:
The fans generally put $10 on a game and gets plaster and excited. The gamblers feel the crunch since there's only 3 games left, generally they'll put more than their typical season bet in the Championships/Bowl game. Don't kid yourself, it's more than $10.
I think is is toooo funny that people are on the Arizona bandwagon! If someone wants to make the argument that the cards will keep it within 3, I could stand to entertain that thought but the cards running away with it is down right hilarious. First, PHI has already embarassed them once. Second, has the cards beat a good defense. MINN and WASH both beat 'em with their mediocre QB. NYG which PHI beat handled them. Beating teams like Buff, SF twice and the Rams twice is hardly a measure of one dominance. FYI the game in which PHI crushed ARIZ in ARIZ was on a short week. What will the eagles D do with a full week to prepare?
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I think is is toooo funny that people are on the Arizona bandwagon! If someone wants to make the argument that the cards will keep it within 3, I could stand to entertain that thought but the cards running away with it is down right hilarious. First, PHI has already embarassed them once. Second, has the cards beat a good defense. MINN and WASH both beat 'em with their mediocre QB. NYG which PHI beat handled them. Beating teams like Buff, SF twice and the Rams twice is hardly a measure of one dominance. FYI the game in which PHI crushed ARIZ in ARIZ was on a short week. What will the eagles D do with a full week to prepare?
Do you think that Jim Johnson is not aware of these numbers you present The Eagles pressured Warner with their front 4 and various stunts, he did not bring all out blitzes. He is smarter than that
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Warner against the blitz in Philadelphia in 2008
65.7 rating
3 td's
3 int's
sacked 0 times
Do you think that Jim Johnson is not aware of these numbers you present The Eagles pressured Warner with their front 4 and various stunts, he did not bring all out blitzes. He is smarter than that
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If someone wants to make the argument that the cards will keep it within 3, I could stand to entertain that thought but the cards running away with it is down right hilarious. First, PHI has already embarassed them once. Second, has the cards beat a good defense. MINN and WASH both beat 'em with their mediocre QB. NYG which PHI beat handled them.
Beating teams like Buff, SF twice and the Rams twice is hardly a measure of one dominance. FYI the game in which PHI crushed ARIZ in ARIZ was on a short week. What will the eagles D do with a full week to prepare?
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