Need HEDGING advice…

I have the following bet:

Houston Texans Under 4 Wins

Risking $10,000 to win $8,000

They have 2 wins currently with 4 games left to play. Here are the odds to win for their remaining 4 games:

12/19 Jags 36.2% away game
12/26 Chargers 19.1% home game
1/2 49ers 10.9% away game
1/9 Titans 18.6% home game

Obviously Jags are garbage and despite being favored -3.5, Texans I think can win this game easily. Chargers, 49ers and Titans are all in the playoff race and need wins for position.

Is it worth it to hedge, and if so, which games and how much?

Thank you for helping!!!

Nothing i hate more than should i hedge

No.  There's your answer.

If 4 is a push then I would only hedge if they have a chance to win 5 which I doubt they will 

You hate guaranteeing a profit   That is brillaint 

I would do some more research. Are any players in their final contract year looking for a big pay day? Also the last game Tennessee may already know where they stand for the playoffs and rest most of the starters. Also keep up on injury updates as well as covid taking out half of a team etc. Good luck. 

@the1toturn2

 it's the stupidest thing ever

if you didn't want to finish the bet, why the f did you bet it in the first place!

for me, i am here to actually win $.  if i wanted to be conservative, I could go to church and pray no one comes after me.

i took a dump this morning.

should i have taken it this afternoon?

let's start a thread and discuss.

Here's the scenario.

I bet $1000 to win $2000 on Jax under 4 wins.

Then, I choose to hedge my bet to $500 to win $1000.

Then why the f did you bet $1000 instead of $500, and why the f are u wasting my time talking about it.

Yeah, they’ve got no chance at 5 wins. But if I push after waiting 6 months, I’m gonna be pissed. I figure I get the worst odds on the Texans this week, for sure, but it’s also the most winnable game. Is it best to hedge using this Jags game or do I wait for the +300-500 I’ll likely get in the other games?

Chill, dude. Hedging is a common practice to protect huge tickets. Just because you don’t like it doesn’t mean it’s not a useful or practical tool. Feel free to go spam another thread. 

@jmpkcp44

 feel free to spam this forum with nonsense.

don't hedge.

there's your answer today, tomorrow, until you die.

goodbye.

Don't think Tennessee will be resting. They can win top seed and get a first round bye. They own the tie breaker against KC and are tied for the best record in the AFC. So I guess they’d be resting if they lose a couple games out of the next three. 

@jmpkcp44

 Life isn’t black and white. To those saying  you should never hedge, it’s foolish to not constantly analyze and re-analyze situations. Dynamics can change.

Yes I get it...you pick a 6 team parlay just as a lotto ticket, the first 5 games hit and you’re waiting till Monday night for game 6. Statistically and mathematically it is always “wrong” in these situations as you will be paying the juice on both sides of the bet and if you were going to chicken out you should have just played the 5 game parlay and already been a winner. 

But things can change, dynamics change...especially over the course of a season long bet. It would be stupid to ride it out just on principle if something has drastically changed that could affect your bet. Think of it this way, if you invested in some company and something changed and that company looked like it was headed towards bankruptcy, are you sitting there saying “well too bad so sad for me” and watching your investment go to zero, or are you selling the stock for what you can get back. Nothing wrong with taking some profit or minimizing losses if the situation warrants.

That being said, I think the OP is sitting fine in this situation with the Texans at 2 wins. Honestly I’d wait out this Jags game...they’ve been awful lately and had clearly quit on Urban who just got fired. Maybe we see some extra effort this week and flashes of Lawrence’s talent and they come out with a win, in which case you’re laughing. Even if Houston wins they still have to win 2 more for you to lose and I don’t see them winning against either the Chargers or 49ers fighting for playoff spots, then you can decide what you want to do the final week against the Titans which I also don’t see them winning but like someone already said there could be sitting starters and whatever crazy stuff going on in the final week if there’s nothing to play for. Either way if they’re going in to that game with 3 wins you’re looking at either a win or a push, no losing your bet. 

@dcp1985

 Yeah if you change your mind, agree.  Scenario:  I bet on the Raiders over 9 wins, but Carr gets injured.  The whole reason I bet on the Raiders was because of Carr.

Otherwise, why don't you lessen your bet.  The only thing you do is make your bet less potent.  If you were planning on hedging a lower amount, why did you bet the higher amount in the first place.

It makes absolutely no sense.

A lottery ticket yes-you buy one you win $1 million or whatever.

He asks for advice, he gets advice. He may not like it, but from someone that has been doing this for 20 years, there's ur answer from me.  As definitive as it gets.

Here, the guy coulda bet $5 instead of $10k.  That, at its core, is what he's asking about.

And it's only when he has the possibility of winning, does he suddenly say "hey I'm scared of losing".

If you're scared of losing, wrong racket.

So much for you promising to go away. You said goodbye like 5 posts ago but you refuse to go away. You’ve now made half the posts in a thread that isn’t yours. Congrats. We get it. You hate hedging. Fuck off. 

@jmpkcp44

 i have the right to post, whether you like it or not.

Sorry I invaded your precious, oh so sensitive vulnerable thread

i was responding to someone else, who responded to me

This is a good take. I’ll wait until Week 18. If the Titans have nothing left to play for outside of avenging their loss to the Texans earlier in the season, I’ll hedge then IF the Texans have 3 wins by then. 

No its not worth hedging. If you have a futures spot getting back a large multiple of your bet and need the money that is the only spot I would hedge. 

So far everyone has said you’re an idiot, so move along. Every wise bettor has hedged at some point in time. It makes financial sense. Only drugged out degens with no common sense (you) have never hedged. No go away. 

@jmpkcp44

 ok.

your thread.

now carry on in your safe space.

No, you are good!

the REAL problem with all this is that you spent $10,000 knowing you had to wait at least 4 months before you'd even know if it was a winner or loser.  if you had that much $$$$ to tie up for so long--and just as likely to end up throwing away--you should have invested in something with a better likelihood of succeeding.

I love hedging possible LARGE futures payouts ... Great Job on this one FAM !! 

There is NO value in hedging right now in my opinion...

Please bump this thread next week 

Um…what investment could I make 80% on in 4 months? I went through the schedule and figured the Texans might win 1 of the 2 Jags games and maybe one other against like the Jets. So I figured 2 wins for the season. I couldn’t come up with 5 in any scenario. So I don’t think there was anything I thought had a better chance of succeeding, to be honest.