I’m not crying because I lost a bet but I see lots of people crying rigged and people saying they just lost and they’re just mad, but I’m new to actual betting on sports and am curious how in gods name can Vegas make a line and spread of an nfl game, an over of 52.5 and -7.5, and the final play be the play that can make or break both scenarios? Like if they kicked a fg which they could have, the spread would’ve lost, and the over would’ve hit, how is it possible for Vegas to actually predict that when there can LITERALLY be any outcome possible to any given game? It’s just mind boggling to me how they get the line “perfect” a lot of the times, there’s over a million probabilities and they get it down to the last play.. to have 50 points with a minute left, and the 3 point fg could have made the spread not cover and the over hit seems like 1 in a million, it’s like they take the timeouts just to see where the money is and end is accordingly
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
I’m not crying because I lost a bet but I see lots of people crying rigged and people saying they just lost and they’re just mad, but I’m new to actual betting on sports and am curious how in gods name can Vegas make a line and spread of an nfl game, an over of 52.5 and -7.5, and the final play be the play that can make or break both scenarios? Like if they kicked a fg which they could have, the spread would’ve lost, and the over would’ve hit, how is it possible for Vegas to actually predict that when there can LITERALLY be any outcome possible to any given game? It’s just mind boggling to me how they get the line “perfect” a lot of the times, there’s over a million probabilities and they get it down to the last play.. to have 50 points with a minute left, and the 3 point fg could have made the spread not cover and the over hit seems like 1 in a million, it’s like they take the timeouts just to see where the money is and end is accordingly
I mean "literally" any outcome is possible is a little bit of a stretch. The probability of those infinite probabilities is slim. Like the score being 700-0 is technically possible but the odds are infinitely small. And it's definitely not 1 in a million for these two teams to combine for 50 points and be close to the spread. You can get relatively close to scores with your own calculations. That's why betting is hard.
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I mean "literally" any outcome is possible is a little bit of a stretch. The probability of those infinite probabilities is slim. Like the score being 700-0 is technically possible but the odds are infinitely small. And it's definitely not 1 in a million for these two teams to combine for 50 points and be close to the spread. You can get relatively close to scores with your own calculations. That's why betting is hard.
Don't forget the TB TT of 30.5 also goes over with that FG. I got hosed on all of my bets the way that played out. No one will ever convince me that Philly going for 2 on that last TD makes any sense whatsoever in the normal course of football.
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@brysonlee
Don't forget the TB TT of 30.5 also goes over with that FG. I got hosed on all of my bets the way that played out. No one will ever convince me that Philly going for 2 on that last TD makes any sense whatsoever in the normal course of football.
Vegas doesn't predict. They throw out a number for people to bet on either side. Now what happens in the game to keep it over or under the number, or cover, is another thing. Don't think for a second that someone on the team doesn't know those numbers during a game. The entire game is designed around betting. Shady shit will happen every game.
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Vegas doesn't predict. They throw out a number for people to bet on either side. Now what happens in the game to keep it over or under the number, or cover, is another thing. Don't think for a second that someone on the team doesn't know those numbers during a game. The entire game is designed around betting. Shady shit will happen every game.
Same way analysts predict the market, pollsters predict elections (trigger warning), supply chain managers predict necessary inputs, etc. Mountains of data - the world doesn’t become so random with all this data at our disposal. short story: quik maff oh and speaking of stats..you should look up % of casual gambling winners. Pretty much a scam
If you believe that I have a bridge to sell you. All the data in the world can't predict an official making the wrong call after watching a review. It's BS and the NFL is the scam.
If you've watched enough games, you should know it's rigged. Using math as the excuse is insulting intelligence.
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@Nedtan
Quote Originally Posted by Nedtan:
Same way analysts predict the market, pollsters predict elections (trigger warning), supply chain managers predict necessary inputs, etc. Mountains of data - the world doesn’t become so random with all this data at our disposal. short story: quik maff oh and speaking of stats..you should look up % of casual gambling winners. Pretty much a scam
If you believe that I have a bridge to sell you. All the data in the world can't predict an official making the wrong call after watching a review. It's BS and the NFL is the scam.
If you've watched enough games, you should know it's rigged. Using math as the excuse is insulting intelligence.
Look simple if they are rigged so to speak. Fine do you have any idea who will be the winner given the factors it fixed. Ok dig into it see if a common denometer exists...
By all means this is a handicapping forum not to debate the ethical standards of fair play. But we bet to win eh?
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Look simple if they are rigged so to speak. Fine do you have any idea who will be the winner given the factors it fixed. Ok dig into it see if a common denometer exists...
By all means this is a handicapping forum not to debate the ethical standards of fair play. But we bet to win eh?
To further clarify this in sports gambling horse racing. Any day of the week events a class of horses compete in non winners of 2 or 3 events. The horse regardless can clearly show second idise. Won 2 placed 30 times in 50 starts. It can be the fastest horse in the field. But if it wins it must move up in class. Placing second takes a quarter of the purse keeps stable fees.managed and allows some profitability and hence the place pool becomes a factor in determine the winner.
Another sight is show pool if the show pool becomes overwhelming lop sided to any horse bet the horse to place 4th in the Super savings ring cause it ain't come anywhere near the winner.....
If you have anything closely resembling this in NFL please do share your thoughts.
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To further clarify this in sports gambling horse racing. Any day of the week events a class of horses compete in non winners of 2 or 3 events. The horse regardless can clearly show second idise. Won 2 placed 30 times in 50 starts. It can be the fastest horse in the field. But if it wins it must move up in class. Placing second takes a quarter of the purse keeps stable fees.managed and allows some profitability and hence the place pool becomes a factor in determine the winner.
Another sight is show pool if the show pool becomes overwhelming lop sided to any horse bet the horse to place 4th in the Super savings ring cause it ain't come anywhere near the winner.....
If you have anything closely resembling this in NFL please do share your thoughts.
Saw this in another thread which perfectly explains why going for two there is the right call. If you still think it’s rigged you should stop gambling immediately.
Quote Originally Posted by Mitchieboi:
@newmarket It makes sense to go for two there. If you estimate extra point make percentage at 100% and 2-point conversion make percentage at 50%. It breaks down like this: 1. Extra point + Extra point = 100% chance of tying when you score twice. 2. a. First 2-point conversion has a 50% chance of making. If you make it, you kick an extra point at 100% accuracy. This means that you win 50% of the time when you score twice. b. If you miss the first 2-point, then you can try again on the second one for a 50% chance again of tying. 50% x 50% = 25%, so you tie 25% of the time. c. If you miss both, you lose 25% of the time. So if you go for extra points, your W/T/L percentage is 0/100/0 but if you go for 2-points it's 50/25/25. If you consider that the ties take you to overtime where you have a roughly 50/50 chance of winning or losing at that point, they become 50/0/50 for EPs and 62.5/0/37.5 for 2Ps. In reality, the extra points perform even worse when you consider that extra points are less than 100% in reality while 2 points are almost exactly 50%. And if your chance of winning in overtime is less than 50%, it skews even harder towards two point tries.
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@Degenerate
Saw this in another thread which perfectly explains why going for two there is the right call. If you still think it’s rigged you should stop gambling immediately.
Quote Originally Posted by Mitchieboi:
@newmarket It makes sense to go for two there. If you estimate extra point make percentage at 100% and 2-point conversion make percentage at 50%. It breaks down like this: 1. Extra point + Extra point = 100% chance of tying when you score twice. 2. a. First 2-point conversion has a 50% chance of making. If you make it, you kick an extra point at 100% accuracy. This means that you win 50% of the time when you score twice. b. If you miss the first 2-point, then you can try again on the second one for a 50% chance again of tying. 50% x 50% = 25%, so you tie 25% of the time. c. If you miss both, you lose 25% of the time. So if you go for extra points, your W/T/L percentage is 0/100/0 but if you go for 2-points it's 50/25/25. If you consider that the ties take you to overtime where you have a roughly 50/50 chance of winning or losing at that point, they become 50/0/50 for EPs and 62.5/0/37.5 for 2Ps. In reality, the extra points perform even worse when you consider that extra points are less than 100% in reality while 2 points are almost exactly 50%. And if your chance of winning in overtime is less than 50%, it skews even harder towards two point tries.
@Degenerate Saw this in another thread which perfectly explains why going for two there is the right call. If you still think it’s rigged you should stop gambling immediately. Quote Originally Posted by Mitchieboi: @newmarket It makes sense to go for two there. If you estimate extra point make percentage at 100% and 2-point conversion make percentage at 50%. It breaks down like this: 1. Extra point + Extra point = 100% chance of tying when you score twice. 2. a. First 2-point conversion has a 50% chance of making. If you make it, you kick an extra point at 100% accuracy. This means that you win 50% of the time when you score twice. b. If you miss the first 2-point, then you can try again on the second one for a 50% chance again of tying. 50% x 50% = 25%, so you tie 25% of the time. c. If you miss both, you lose 25% of the time. So if you go for extra points, your W/T/L percentage is 0/100/0 but if you go for 2-points it's 50/25/25. If you consider that the ties take you to overtime where you have a roughly 50/50 chance of winning or losing at that point, they become 50/0/50 for EPs and 62.5/0/37.5 for 2Ps. In reality, the extra points perform even worse when you consider that extra points are less than 100% in reality while 2 points are almost exactly 50%. And if your chance of winning in overtime is less than 50%, it skews even harder towards two point tries.
The math is correct, but believing these games are not corrupt/rigged or manipulated is just ignorant. Using that example to rationalize what happened is insulting. If that math was truly the right thing to do then why are the coaches so inconsistent? These games aren't played with math. They are played with money. Eagles covered like they were supposed to.
1
Quote Originally Posted by ThaFazz:
@Degenerate Saw this in another thread which perfectly explains why going for two there is the right call. If you still think it’s rigged you should stop gambling immediately. Quote Originally Posted by Mitchieboi: @newmarket It makes sense to go for two there. If you estimate extra point make percentage at 100% and 2-point conversion make percentage at 50%. It breaks down like this: 1. Extra point + Extra point = 100% chance of tying when you score twice. 2. a. First 2-point conversion has a 50% chance of making. If you make it, you kick an extra point at 100% accuracy. This means that you win 50% of the time when you score twice. b. If you miss the first 2-point, then you can try again on the second one for a 50% chance again of tying. 50% x 50% = 25%, so you tie 25% of the time. c. If you miss both, you lose 25% of the time. So if you go for extra points, your W/T/L percentage is 0/100/0 but if you go for 2-points it's 50/25/25. If you consider that the ties take you to overtime where you have a roughly 50/50 chance of winning or losing at that point, they become 50/0/50 for EPs and 62.5/0/37.5 for 2Ps. In reality, the extra points perform even worse when you consider that extra points are less than 100% in reality while 2 points are almost exactly 50%. And if your chance of winning in overtime is less than 50%, it skews even harder towards two point tries.
The math is correct, but believing these games are not corrupt/rigged or manipulated is just ignorant. Using that example to rationalize what happened is insulting. If that math was truly the right thing to do then why are the coaches so inconsistent? These games aren't played with math. They are played with money. Eagles covered like they were supposed to.
With your logic, just always bet the team getting less money in the markets. Then the NFL will surely rig enough games for you to win at a consistent rate to retire and never have to work again.
Coming in here screaming “RIGGED! RIGGED!” after games is just a coping mechanism for people who can’t accept that they actually aren’t good at sports betting.
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@saintsfan1977
With your logic, just always bet the team getting less money in the markets. Then the NFL will surely rig enough games for you to win at a consistent rate to retire and never have to work again.
Coming in here screaming “RIGGED! RIGGED!” after games is just a coping mechanism for people who can’t accept that they actually aren’t good at sports betting.
[Quote: Originally Posted by brysonlee]I’m not crying because I lost a bet but I see lots of people crying rigged and people saying they just lost and they’re just mad, but I’m new to actual betting on sports and am curious how in gods name can Vegas make a line and spread of an nfl game, an over of 52.5 and -7.5, and the final play be the play that can make or break both scenarios? Like if they kicked a fg which they could have, the spread would’ve lost, and the over would’ve hit, how is it possible for Vegas to actually predict that when there can LITERALLY be any outcome possible to any given game? It’s just mind boggling to me how they get the line “perfect” a lot of the times, there’s over a million probabilities and they get it down to the last play.. to have 50 points with a minute left, and the 3 point fg could have made the spread not cover and the over hit seems like 1 in a million, it’s like they take the timeouts just to see where the money is and end is accordingly[/Quote
1. Crying rigged/fixed = Loser!
2. Based on the lines set by bookmakers and moved by the bettor, theoretically every game in every sport should come down to the end. NFL lines are basically the tightest in all sports.
3. Best advice for a new bettor? Don’t watch the games you bet on. It takes all the emotion/action feeling - irrationality out of your decision making. Read about and study the stats to figure out why you predictions/strategy is working or not over time. Of course a MM plan too.
0
[Quote: Originally Posted by brysonlee]I’m not crying because I lost a bet but I see lots of people crying rigged and people saying they just lost and they’re just mad, but I’m new to actual betting on sports and am curious how in gods name can Vegas make a line and spread of an nfl game, an over of 52.5 and -7.5, and the final play be the play that can make or break both scenarios? Like if they kicked a fg which they could have, the spread would’ve lost, and the over would’ve hit, how is it possible for Vegas to actually predict that when there can LITERALLY be any outcome possible to any given game? It’s just mind boggling to me how they get the line “perfect” a lot of the times, there’s over a million probabilities and they get it down to the last play.. to have 50 points with a minute left, and the 3 point fg could have made the spread not cover and the over hit seems like 1 in a million, it’s like they take the timeouts just to see where the money is and end is accordingly[/Quote
1. Crying rigged/fixed = Loser!
2. Based on the lines set by bookmakers and moved by the bettor, theoretically every game in every sport should come down to the end. NFL lines are basically the tightest in all sports.
3. Best advice for a new bettor? Don’t watch the games you bet on. It takes all the emotion/action feeling - irrationality out of your decision making. Read about and study the stats to figure out why you predictions/strategy is working or not over time. Of course a MM plan too.
You only have to watch a few nfl or nba games to realize there is something fishy going on. Nfl doesn't need to be legit. Ut's their product and they can do what they want with it. There is no script but the refs are employees if the league and are instructed to keep things intersting till the end. They don't want people turning to the nature station during a blowout. Especially the primetime games when everyone is watching. I call it the 4th quarter fukery! Mist games are decided on a single play or 2 in those big moments. A defensive holding call or 2 or a pass interference or offensive holding call will completely swing things. Every player holds on every play so when they show the replay it looks legit and no one is the wiser but be sure that's the fukery. Tampa beats philly by a hundred straight up in that game cause Hurts is useless bht with the fukery, people want to tune in til the end and again next week. No lead is safe against the fukery and their is no point in watching the first 3 quarters before the fukery begins. The nfl could be an awesome product if they could only leave it alone but alas they prefer fukery.
1
You only have to watch a few nfl or nba games to realize there is something fishy going on. Nfl doesn't need to be legit. Ut's their product and they can do what they want with it. There is no script but the refs are employees if the league and are instructed to keep things intersting till the end. They don't want people turning to the nature station during a blowout. Especially the primetime games when everyone is watching. I call it the 4th quarter fukery! Mist games are decided on a single play or 2 in those big moments. A defensive holding call or 2 or a pass interference or offensive holding call will completely swing things. Every player holds on every play so when they show the replay it looks legit and no one is the wiser but be sure that's the fukery. Tampa beats philly by a hundred straight up in that game cause Hurts is useless bht with the fukery, people want to tune in til the end and again next week. No lead is safe against the fukery and their is no point in watching the first 3 quarters before the fukery begins. The nfl could be an awesome product if they could only leave it alone but alas they prefer fukery.
@saintsfan1977 With your logic, just always bet the team getting less money in the markets. Then the NFL will surely rig enough games for you to win at a consistent rate to retire and never have to work again. Coming in here screaming “RIGGED! RIGGED!” after games is just a coping mechanism for people who can’t accept that they actually aren’t good at sports betting.
No. I won my bet. And not every game is rigged for the gambling market but You can't tell me there isn't at least one game a week that defies all logic of the rules, game, and sport, and say that's just the way the ball bounces. That's a coping mechanism for people who refuse to believe the games are tampered with.
0
Quote Originally Posted by ThaFazz:
@saintsfan1977 With your logic, just always bet the team getting less money in the markets. Then the NFL will surely rig enough games for you to win at a consistent rate to retire and never have to work again. Coming in here screaming “RIGGED! RIGGED!” after games is just a coping mechanism for people who can’t accept that they actually aren’t good at sports betting.
No. I won my bet. And not every game is rigged for the gambling market but You can't tell me there isn't at least one game a week that defies all logic of the rules, game, and sport, and say that's just the way the ball bounces. That's a coping mechanism for people who refuse to believe the games are tampered with.
You only have to watch a few nfl or nba games to realize there is something fishy going on. Nfl doesn't need to be legit. Ut's their product and they can do what they want with it. There is no script but the refs are employees if the league and are instructed to keep things intersting till the end. They don't want people turning to the nature station during a blowout. Especially the primetime games when everyone is watching. I call it the 4th quarter fukery! Mist games are decided on a single play or 2 in those big moments. A defensive holding call or 2 or a pass interference or offensive holding call will completely swing things. Every player holds on every play so when they show the replay it looks legit and no one is the wiser but be sure that's the fukery. Tampa beats philly by a hundred straight up in that game cause Hurts is useless bht with the fukery, people want to tune in til the end and again next week. No lead is safe against the fukery and their is no point in watching the first 3 quarters before the fukery begins. The nfl could be an awesome product if they could only leave it alone but alas they prefer fukery.
You hit the nail on the head. Idiots claim parity when games are close or any given Sunday. Truth is those last couple minutes in most games are orchestrated.
TV networks aren't paying billions of dollars for blowouts and 9-6 type snooze fests. They are paying billions for the NFL to rig its games for excitement and storylines.
Take gambling out and the NFL becomes the CFL overnight.
0
Quote Originally Posted by football79:
You only have to watch a few nfl or nba games to realize there is something fishy going on. Nfl doesn't need to be legit. Ut's their product and they can do what they want with it. There is no script but the refs are employees if the league and are instructed to keep things intersting till the end. They don't want people turning to the nature station during a blowout. Especially the primetime games when everyone is watching. I call it the 4th quarter fukery! Mist games are decided on a single play or 2 in those big moments. A defensive holding call or 2 or a pass interference or offensive holding call will completely swing things. Every player holds on every play so when they show the replay it looks legit and no one is the wiser but be sure that's the fukery. Tampa beats philly by a hundred straight up in that game cause Hurts is useless bht with the fukery, people want to tune in til the end and again next week. No lead is safe against the fukery and their is no point in watching the first 3 quarters before the fukery begins. The nfl could be an awesome product if they could only leave it alone but alas they prefer fukery.
You hit the nail on the head. Idiots claim parity when games are close or any given Sunday. Truth is those last couple minutes in most games are orchestrated.
TV networks aren't paying billions of dollars for blowouts and 9-6 type snooze fests. They are paying billions for the NFL to rig its games for excitement and storylines.
Take gambling out and the NFL becomes the CFL overnight.
One last time for those that keep saying its not rigged then what it is then???? If you watch enough football, then how come so many flags are thrown on 3rd down to bail the team out to continue the drive. How come it seems like 99% of the defensive holding or illegal contact ALWAYS HAPPENS ON 3rd down??? To keep the team the drive still going. These are pro's eventually they will get down in either FG position or score a touchdown with the help of the refs. Sometimes these calls are HORRENDOUS!!!
If you or I do this at our jobs, guess what we're fired. These refs are never called out or fired for doing a poor job. It's just oh, he made a mistake. Well guess what that doesn't help anyone after the fact that either played in the game or gambled on the game. It's over, so who cares right??? People it's all about $$$$$$$$ Wake the Eff up
I will continue to do this because A I love football, and B I love gambling on football. So here you go! :)
CatchMyPick
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One last time for those that keep saying its not rigged then what it is then???? If you watch enough football, then how come so many flags are thrown on 3rd down to bail the team out to continue the drive. How come it seems like 99% of the defensive holding or illegal contact ALWAYS HAPPENS ON 3rd down??? To keep the team the drive still going. These are pro's eventually they will get down in either FG position or score a touchdown with the help of the refs. Sometimes these calls are HORRENDOUS!!!
If you or I do this at our jobs, guess what we're fired. These refs are never called out or fired for doing a poor job. It's just oh, he made a mistake. Well guess what that doesn't help anyone after the fact that either played in the game or gambled on the game. It's over, so who cares right??? People it's all about $$$$$$$$ Wake the Eff up
I will continue to do this because A I love football, and B I love gambling on football. So here you go! :)
I'm sure the refs being employees of the league just do what they're told to do and keep games interesting for the viewers to improve ratings. Refs must sign non-disclosure contracts to keep quiet about the fukery and mske a hefty sdlary to do so
0
I'm sure the refs being employees of the league just do what they're told to do and keep games interesting for the viewers to improve ratings. Refs must sign non-disclosure contracts to keep quiet about the fukery and mske a hefty sdlary to do so
I’m not crying because I lost a bet but I see lots of people crying rigged and people saying they just lost and they’re just mad, but I’m new to actual betting on sports and am curious how in gods name can Vegas make a line and spread of an nfl game, an over of 52.5 and -7.5, and the final play be the play that can make or break both scenarios? Like if they kicked a fg which they could have, the spread would’ve lost, and the over would’ve hit, how is it possible for Vegas to actually predict that when there can LITERALLY be any outcome possible to any given game? It’s just mind boggling to me how they get the line “perfect” a lot of the times, there’s over a million probabilities and they get it down to the last play.. to have 50 points with a minute left, and the 3 point fg could have made the spread not cover and the over hit seems like 1 in a million, it’s like they take the timeouts just to see where the money is and end is accordingly
Selective bias. You're looking at the one game that is bang on the spread and total but ignoring games every week where the spread or total are nowhere near.
0
@brysonlee
Quote Originally Posted by brysonlee:
I’m not crying because I lost a bet but I see lots of people crying rigged and people saying they just lost and they’re just mad, but I’m new to actual betting on sports and am curious how in gods name can Vegas make a line and spread of an nfl game, an over of 52.5 and -7.5, and the final play be the play that can make or break both scenarios? Like if they kicked a fg which they could have, the spread would’ve lost, and the over would’ve hit, how is it possible for Vegas to actually predict that when there can LITERALLY be any outcome possible to any given game? It’s just mind boggling to me how they get the line “perfect” a lot of the times, there’s over a million probabilities and they get it down to the last play.. to have 50 points with a minute left, and the 3 point fg could have made the spread not cover and the over hit seems like 1 in a million, it’s like they take the timeouts just to see where the money is and end is accordingly
Selective bias. You're looking at the one game that is bang on the spread and total but ignoring games every week where the spread or total are nowhere near.
Selective bias. You're looking at the one game that is bang on the spread and total but ignoring games every week where the spread or total are nowhere near.
because you cant fix every game or can you hmmm
0
Quote Originally Posted by Bigdoubleplay:
@brysonlee Quote Originally Posted by brysonlee:
Selective bias. You're looking at the one game that is bang on the spread and total but ignoring games every week where the spread or total are nowhere near.
@Nedtan Quote Originally Posted by Nedtan: Same way analysts predict the market, pollsters predict elections (trigger warning), supply chain managers predict necessary inputs, etc. Mountains of data - the world doesn’t become so random with all this data at our disposal. short story: quik maff oh and speaking of stats..you should look up % of casual gambling winners. Pretty much a scam If you believe that I have a bridge to sell you. All the data in the world can't predict an official making the wrong call after watching a review. It's BS and the NFL is the scam. If you've watched enough games, you should know it's rigged. Using math as the excuse is insulting intelligence.
They don't predict outcomes, it's just probabilities. Only dumb people can't understand how math is used in sports.
0
Quote Originally Posted by saintsfan1977:
@Nedtan Quote Originally Posted by Nedtan: Same way analysts predict the market, pollsters predict elections (trigger warning), supply chain managers predict necessary inputs, etc. Mountains of data - the world doesn’t become so random with all this data at our disposal. short story: quik maff oh and speaking of stats..you should look up % of casual gambling winners. Pretty much a scam If you believe that I have a bridge to sell you. All the data in the world can't predict an official making the wrong call after watching a review. It's BS and the NFL is the scam. If you've watched enough games, you should know it's rigged. Using math as the excuse is insulting intelligence.
They don't predict outcomes, it's just probabilities. Only dumb people can't understand how math is used in sports.
Idk, I pay someone to help me put lines together and our lines are pretty close to the book and pretty dead on most of the time, so if we can do it......vegas has no problem doing it.
But when we have a huge discrepancy over the book line, were hella confident we found value.
That being said, Prime Time games are another beast.
0
@saintsfan1977
Idk, I pay someone to help me put lines together and our lines are pretty close to the book and pretty dead on most of the time, so if we can do it......vegas has no problem doing it.
But when we have a huge discrepancy over the book line, were hella confident we found value.
That being said, Prime Time games are another beast.
[Quote: Originally Posted by Tressel33]One last time for those that keep saying its not rigged then what it is then???? If you watch enough football, then how come so many flags are thrown on 3rd down to bail the team out to continue the drive. How come it seems like 99% of the defensive holding or illegal contact ALWAYS HAPPENS ON 3rd down??? To keep the team the drive still going. These are pro's eventually they will get down in either FG position or score a touchdown with the help of the refs. Sometimes these calls are HORRENDOUS!!! If you or I do this at our jobs, guess what we're fired. These refs are never called out or fired for doing a poor job. It's just oh, he made a mistake. Well guess what that doesn't help anyone after the fact that either played in the game or gambled on the game. It's over, so who cares right??? People it's all about $$$$$$$$ Wake the Eff up I will continue to do this because A I love football, and B I love gambling on football. So here you go! :)[/Quote
More defensive holding or illegal contact happens on 3rd downs because teams are more likely to throw on 3rd down if they're behind the sticks and more likely to run on second down
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[Quote: Originally Posted by Tressel33]One last time for those that keep saying its not rigged then what it is then???? If you watch enough football, then how come so many flags are thrown on 3rd down to bail the team out to continue the drive. How come it seems like 99% of the defensive holding or illegal contact ALWAYS HAPPENS ON 3rd down??? To keep the team the drive still going. These are pro's eventually they will get down in either FG position or score a touchdown with the help of the refs. Sometimes these calls are HORRENDOUS!!! If you or I do this at our jobs, guess what we're fired. These refs are never called out or fired for doing a poor job. It's just oh, he made a mistake. Well guess what that doesn't help anyone after the fact that either played in the game or gambled on the game. It's over, so who cares right??? People it's all about $$$$$$$$ Wake the Eff up I will continue to do this because A I love football, and B I love gambling on football. So here you go! :)[/Quote
More defensive holding or illegal contact happens on 3rd downs because teams are more likely to throw on 3rd down if they're behind the sticks and more likely to run on second down
I’m not crying because I lost a bet but I see lots of people crying rigged and people saying they just lost and they’re just mad, but I’m new to actual betting on sports and am curious how in gods name can Vegas make a line and spread of an nfl game, an over of 52.5 and -7.5, and the final play be the play that can make or break both scenarios?
Hey Bryson,
Do yourself a favor and google "how vegas makes betting lines", or makes football lines. Don't just guess, check it out at several sites/articles and you'll have much better understanding of how the sausage is made lol. Tons of historical data, tons of current numbers, player rankings on both sides of the ball, injuries, weather...and that's before they give the lines to us, the betting public, to react to. And don't forget the sharps who can move the lines with their wagering. Best of luck!!!
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Quote Originally Posted by brysonlee:
I’m not crying because I lost a bet but I see lots of people crying rigged and people saying they just lost and they’re just mad, but I’m new to actual betting on sports and am curious how in gods name can Vegas make a line and spread of an nfl game, an over of 52.5 and -7.5, and the final play be the play that can make or break both scenarios?
Hey Bryson,
Do yourself a favor and google "how vegas makes betting lines", or makes football lines. Don't just guess, check it out at several sites/articles and you'll have much better understanding of how the sausage is made lol. Tons of historical data, tons of current numbers, player rankings on both sides of the ball, injuries, weather...and that's before they give the lines to us, the betting public, to react to. And don't forget the sharps who can move the lines with their wagering. Best of luck!!!
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