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#1
Some of you might know me from baseball this year, where I absolutely stunk. It's time to get it rolling with football. Check out my season preview thread. I go bold with my picks.
Right now I am only locking in one pick for Week 1, and that will be the Thursday nighter. Only reason I am locking this in now is because I really think the spread will go lower since it is way too high.
Baltimore Ravens +9 vs. Denver Broncos (2 units)
We all know that the Ravens have lost a ton of starters from last year's defense. But we are downplaying the impact of the players they replaced those starters with. Elvis Dumervil is an upgrade over Paul Kruger. Michael Huff won't be too much of a downgrade from Ed Reed who maybe has one year left. Rookie LB Arthur Brown is a stud and can easily replace the void left by Ellerbee. Ray Lewis was a great motivator but he wasn't that great last year. DT Chris Canty will help shore up the d-line. Let's not forget the return of shutdown CB Ladarius Webb. The offense is going to take a hit with the losses of WR Anquan Boldin and TE Dennis Pitta. But all they need to do is pound the rock and take some shots with WR Torrey Smith and they will be a solid team.
Now in this game, there is no reason the Broncos should be favoured by 9. It should be around -5.5 This spread is downplaying the loss of OLB Von Miller, who is the only defensive player in the league that comes close to DE J.J. Watt. Miller makes this defense tick. He is a dominant pass rusher and he can drop into coverage with the best of them (of linebackers). Without him for the first six games, the Broncos will likely rely on QB Peyton Manning. But I believe that the Ravens defense will be better than last year. I think it'll be a Top 5 unit. This will be a tight game and is my best play on the board.
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