NFL 2023 Picks+

Henry over 85.5  looks good , Gl Dubz

@Cyrax

 odds just got nuked at my book ...prob gonna have to pass but the play has a good shot

diggs odds just got nuked too....gotta stay at 0.5 unit play now

another lean

baker under 223.5 pass yards...dont like that the chicago defense was so trash week 1...big number for baker tho

Diggs  +0.475

Overall 1-1 -0.025 units

Leans 7-10 with 2 pending....found a winner this week

Week 2 12-2 to the over so far

Early week 3 leans

Atl +4.0....they could dominate TOP

Tenn +4.0...expecting a close game. Similar to no/tenn week 1

Dal/ari under 43.5....ari should struggle to score over 17 unless they get a buncha points in garbage time

Ten/cle under 41.5.....both teams love to run the ball. Hard to see both teams over 20 points.

Ne/nyj under 37.5.....defensive slugfest. One team should be held under 17. Maybe both.

Liked lac/min over 51.5 but it shot up to 54.0

Liked rams +6.5 but now its +2.0

Debating chi/kc over 49.0...chiefs should get 27+ just worried how many the bears will score

Got 10+ props I'm waiting on. Looking at 1 RB for sure. 5 QB passing yards unders and 5 reception props. All depending on lines we get 

Looking at futures...

Dallas to win nfc east @2.10

2 team race with philly. Philly beat up already. No repeat division winner since 2004 season.

Sf to win nfc @4.00

Dal to win nfc @4.35

Think one of these 2 makes the SB

Most receiving yards

Jefferson @3.00

Hill @4.50

One of these 2 win it barring injury...probably Jefferson 

Jalen Carter defensive rookie of year @3.00...if he stays healthy its his...he's getting a good share of snaps...odds were better 2 weeks ago but we wanted to see his snap %

More leans

Jefferson over 6.5 receptions...odds juiced will prob wait for 7.5 line

Lamar under 228.5 pass yards...if ravens lead most of the game they should go run heavy

Mac under 223.5 pass yards...tough matchup vs Jets D

jimmy g under 240.5 pass yards...high number for Jimmy...steelers D pretty good

Bijan over 69.5 rush yards...line a bit high was hoping for low 60s....he should bust 1 or 2 10-15+ yards

Hill over 6.5 receptions...don't like matchup vs surtain 

Diggs over 5.5 receptions...juiced heavy...may look at over 6.5....comms  secondary mediocre at best

K.allen over 6.5 receptions...like this more if ekeler out again...decent matchup vs vikes...oddsmakers expecting a shootout

Kelce over 6.5 receptions....potential for a breakout game vs a weak bears defense

Waiting on AJ brown, love , baker and z.wilson lines

1 locked in

Jefferson over 7.5 receptions @2.10  0.5 to win 0.55

Over this in both games to start season

Oddsmakers expecting shootout...if total gets close to 54 Jefferson should have at least 6-7+ catches

Expecting minne to be pass heavy most of the season

Cousins fave target and a top 3 WR in league

Chargers secondary mediocre at best

Looking for 4 catches a half

Both teams like to pass so there should be lots of possessions for both teams

Debating going full unit here...if it was 6.5 at + odds if be hammering it

Also like that the game indoors and minne at home

Like him in the 7-10 catch range

GL all

Looking at Henry over 72.5 yards as well...browns D pretty good...but a decent buy low spot on Henry

Debating Bijan....just hate that he splits carries with allgaier

1 locked in

Bijan over 69.5 rush yards @1.87  0.5 to win 0.435

Had 54 vs Car on 10 carries  and 124 vs GB on 19 carries...He prob goes over vs car if he gets 14+ carries

Falcons OL healthy

Lions D nothing special....9th in rush yards allowed but they played 2 shitty rushing teams...now they face a top 5 rushing attack

Bijan is elite. Elite burst. Pretty good vision. Reminds me of a couple elite backs. Kinda runs a little upright like CJ2K did

Only worry is if lions gets a huge lead and atl has to pass....or if they feed allgeier instead of Bijan 

Looking for him to get 14+ carries around 4.5+ YPC

Should be good for atleast 60+

Like him in the 62-92 range

GL all

Looking at

Z.wilson under 181.5 pass yards....need to see weather conditions on the TV pregame.. calling for terrible passing weather

Mac under 211.5 pass yards....same reasons as z.wilson....missed this at 223.5 tho which blows...12 yards is a nice cushion

Lamar under 224.5 pass yards....gotta see pregame on TV...supposed to be bad passing conditions but not as bad as ne/nyj

K.allen over 6.5 receptions...expecting shootout...2 gunslinger QBs...indoors...Herbert fave target with ekeler out

Ten/cle over 3.5 FG...need to see pregame on TV...specifically the flags on the goal posts...calling for 10-15 mph winds which would make this a no play... but if they wrong and tomorrow a bit calmer this could be in play....2 good veteran kickers...

Didn't like love line at 210.5 wanted in the 220s

Debating if Baker under 230.5 a lean or not...Eagles secondary beat up and they should lead most of the game forcing TB to pass 

1 locked in

K.allen over 6.5 receptions @2.05  0.5 to win 0.525

6 and 8 in 1st 2 games...6 was with ekeler playing

Ekeler out should get him a few extra targets

Expecting a shootout and Game indoors so don't have weather to worry about

Minne secondary mediocre at best and they have to cover williams deep

Herbert fave target with ekeler out

If vikes get a huge lead chargers will have to pound the pass game and vice versa for my Jefferson pick

Looking for 3-4 catches a half

Like him in the 6-8 range

GL all

Bets went 1-2 

Lions dominated and falcons rushing attack never got going

Got hooked on Jefferson...13 targets..

K.allen had a career day

Leans went 9-6

Week 4 leans

Ne/dal under 44.0...2 good D

Tb/no under 40.0...divisional matchup and 2 good D

Bal/cle under 40.0...same as above

Sea -1.0...better team  imo

Jefferson over 6.5 receptions...might be windy...odds suck at 6.5 might wait for 7.5

Hill over 6.5 receptions...waddle back...bills good pass D....but he should get 6+ unless Miami gets a huge lead

Nacua over 6.5 receptions ...says he is 100% now...Stafford likes to dump it short to him

McCaffery over 80.5 rush yards...should have big day vs cards

Leans

Baker under 214.5 pass yards...saints secondary beat up a bit but I like him in the 200 yard range...and he's on the road in a loud dome

Debating locking in ne/dal under 43.0....missed 44.0 but can get 43.0 at close to plus money

Also kinda like pit/hou over 41.5

1 locked in

Tb/no under 41.0 @1.94  0.5 to win 0.47

Teams combined 5-1 to the under so far this season

3 of last 4 between these 2 have gone under 41.0

Carr not 100%, didn't like this bet as much if Winston played

Divisional game ...always prefer them for unders due to how well the teams know each other

2 really good defenses

Hard to see both teams over 20 points 

Like a 20-17 type game

GL all

1 locked in

Ne/dal under 43.0 @1.94  0.5 to win 0.47

Both teams like to run the ball. Clock should be moving

2 good defenses. Prefer if Diggs was playing 

Boys starting LT is out. Big loss on the OL

Have a hard time seeing both teams over 20 points

Looking for a 23-17 type game

GL all

Tb/no under 41.0

Ne/dal under 43.0

Overall 4-3 +0.44 units

0-0 +0   1-unit plays 

4-3 +0.44    0.5-unit plays

DUBZ

@Fuse

 Fuser....hoping I starting to find a groove in here

Last lean for week 4 is sea -1.0...line now -1.5...

Week 4 leans 5-2 with sea pending

Week 5 leans

Pit/balt under 40.0...divisional matchup...steelers O a mess...hard to see both over 20 points 

No/ne under 40.0....both O a mess...both D good...could see a team held under 17

Kc/min over 52.5...prefer 52.0...both teams should score 20+...worried about 28-24 score

Also like phi/lar over 47.0 and chi/wash over 45.0 but not as much as the 3 above...

May have a big prop play depending on the line released

Week 4 leans went 6-2...shoulda played Seattle...way better team than giants as I noted

2 more week 5 leans

Mac under 222.5 pass yard....he's 2-2 to this number this year....he's struggling...chance he gets pulled again

Henry over 75.5 rush yards....not expecting colts blowout so he should get 16+ carries

 Curious to see if these get nuked quickly...around 75-85% of plays posted in this thread have been nuked within 24 hrs of my post...which is interesting for sure 

Let’s go DUBZ! GL 

@Fuse

 Fuser 

1 locked in

Henry over 74.5 rush yards @1.87  0.5 to win 0.435

Over this in 9 of last 10 vs colts

Over this in 2 of 4 this season

Colts allowing 134.0 rush yards last 3

Colts DL banged up. Buckner bad back. Paye concussion and Shaq banged up

Don't see a colts blowout so he should get 16-18+ carries

Debating going full unit here. I just hate the titans OL...

Looking for 37+ yards a half. Could have a 100+ yard day

Like him in the 68-108 range

GL all

Ride that Saints Under train till it breaks.....

13-1 Under last 14 with 10 straight Under streak going.... 

@kcblitzkrieg

 Yup hoping it gets back to 40.0....gonna let public hit the over