NFL AFC and NFC Championship Week Early Thoughts and Picks....

Posting these early, and locked in early to my wagers because I think this will be as good as it gets for the lines I like....

One other thing....  Take these and my final picks for what they are worth.  Some random dude on the internet giving free advice.  You push the button on every bet you make - not me.  Look inward if this doesn't make sense to you.

NFL Season:  +27.49 units
NFL Playoffs:  7-3  +13.95 units

Bengals / Chiefs:  Chiefs -7 (4 units)  

I was surprised when the line came out at 6.5, and I am still surprised it has settled at 7.  I grabbed some 6.5, but I am now basically fully in with the majority at 7.  I would guess the line can only go north from here - cant see it going back - but who knows.

I had the Chiefs when they played the Bengals only 3.5 weeks ago.  Jamarr Chase was inexplicably open the whole game, and his YAC were ridiculous so he went nuts.  Burrow threw for 400+, and the Bengals won 34-31 on a FG at the buzzer.  The highlights are here, I highly suggest you watch these 15 minutes - or if you can get your hands on a full game replay - do it.   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kU6yIpghmLU&ab_channel=NFL

There are lots of stats out there to make a case for the Chiefs, but I am focused on one in particular - the defensive (chiefs) and offensive (bengals) "win rate" for pass rush. The Titans getting 9 sacks last week was no accident - the Bengals are last in the league (adjusted) in offensive pass rush protect win rate.  They just cant protect.  Burrow did pretty well all things considered - but he only had to put up 19 points because their opposition was "offensively challenged".  The Chiefs are about 12th in defensive pass rush win rate.

So what does that mean?  Well - how many points do you think the Bengals need to cover the 7 this week at Arrowhead?  Pick a number and then tell me if they are going to be able to score that many - with Burrow under pressure every drop back - with the Chiefs likely up on the scoreboard in must pass situations.  The only way the Bengals win and or cover this game IMO is if they go possession for possession with the Chiefs, because I think KC will score on 8 of their 10 possessions or similar.  No, the Chiefs defense is not spectacular - but any defense can become spectacular if the other team is one dimensional.

That brings us to KC offense, against Bengals defense.   The Bengals defense is around 20th or so in most key statistic categories (adjusted), and they have really gotten fortunate with their first two playoff opponents being mediocre offenses.  The Chiefs are not a mediocre offense.  I really cant see the Bengals putting the Chiefs in too many down and distance issues - the Chiefs are 5th in the NFL on 1st down on offense - while the Bengals defense is 31st!! on 1st down.

This all says to me that the Chiefs will get out early, like they did on Jan 2.  They will move the ball on offense, and shouldnt have a problem scoring on most possessions.  When the Bengals become pass only - they will suffer.  The Chiefs will be ready this time, and they will fold.  KC 41 - 17

Niners / Rams:  Niners +3.25 (3 units)  (Full disclosure - I have the Niners at 43-1 to win SB but that has no influence on this pick)

What is up with McVay in big games?  Totally outclassed and outcoached in their SB loss, and the second half against Tampa was an abomination.  He lacks game awareness, and when things don't go exactly right (like the Niners game 2 weeks ago), he seems like he doesnt have the ability to adjust.  Just a random thought.

Like the first game, these teams know each other from recently.  The game was close, but not really.  The Niners dominated statistically, and ESPN calculated that they had an 88% chance of winning the game with the stats that were produced.  The highlights are here, I also suggest spending 15 minutes watching these.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vK6V_cJMgwM&ab_channel=NFL

We all know the Niners have beaten the Rams a bunch in a row (is it 6, or 7?).  I don't put much in to that, except that obviously the Rams are somewhat bothered by the style the Niners play.  But the Rams seem to handle good defenses pretty well - scoring 20+ in every game they played this season.  So the Niners will have to keep pace.

So can the Niners score in the 20's against the stout Rams defense?  I think they will, and I think this might be the game that Jimmy G makes a name for himself.  If you watch those highlights from the previous game, notice how quickly he got the ball out, and his pocket awareness (something you wouldnt normally say about Jimmy G).  The Rams do have serious safety and secondary issues that the Bucs simply weren't able to exploit because of a terrible offensive line performance and the Rams on Brady before you could blink.

I am concerned about Trent Williamson injury - but everything I am seeing is that he will be a go.  The sole key to beating the Rams is stopping their pass rush.  How do you do that?  By running well, and getting the ball out early.  Shanahan will be ready for this.  In the two games this year against the Rams, the Niners rushed for 135 and 156.  If they rush for 100+ this week, they will have a great chance of winning. 

Obviously Jimmy G will need to not turn it over, or at least limit the damages on turnovers.  In games where he didnt throw an INT the 49ers were 7-0, games with 1 INT they were 3-3, and games with 2 INTs the 49ers were 1-3 (only win against Rams on Jan 9).  He has a tendency to turn it over in spots that create the most damage also - he is 2nd in the NFL in that category - which is not good.  But I think gameplanning can get you out of a lot of these situations - and I am betting on a successful running game with over the top routes that take advantage of bad secondary issues for the Rams.

On the other side of the ball, the 49ers defense is the best defense left by far - and probably the best in the NFL right now.  They will pressure Stafford - and limit the run game.  Did anyone notice the fumbles last week by Cam Akers?  For all of the hype of him being back - Im just not sure he is ready.  He looked very slow to hit holes.  Last week he ran 24 times for 48 yards with 2 fumbles - but I noticed on the tape that he was not explosive and didn't have vision.  Watch for yourself on those highlights.  Not saying this is anything but a 1 week thing for him - but it did stand out to me.

Rams get their 20, but barely.  49ers 27-21

I think both of these lines arent going to move much.  The rams should be right at -3.25, and the Chiefs might go up to 7.5, but I doubt 6.5.

GL all

Happy to discuss

 Take these and my final picks for what they are worth.  Some random dude on the internet giving free advice.  You push the button on every bet you make - not me.  Look inward if this doesn't make sense to you. 

I would think this is understood but you will be blasted even if you win 

Great write up, good luck this weekend.

Good luck buddy 

I like it! Chiefs double digit victory  

Yeah I agree big time on KC covering. Not as confident on the 49rs however I’ve noticed over the years that when a team almost blows it as the Rams did last game they seem to bounce back the next game. I took KC -6.5 as soon as I saw it kneejerk kind of bet. And I’m thinking of teasing KC -1 and 49rs +10.5 kind of LARGE on that teaser. Glad you like both teams. BOL

I guess it was all of a sudden that Chiefs players took notice of your arguments ‘cause that 34-31 Bengals victory was just 3 weeks ago… Just saying…

Chiefs should win the game but 41-17? Come on… 

All over Bengals +7

KC 31/Cinci 27

One thing I forgot to mention in my writeup....

SoFi is not a normal away game for most teams.  SoFi is almost a HOME game for SF.

Discount your Rams HF advantage here by a lot.  There will be a lot of 49ers fans there - and a ton of noise.

Teams that play 3 times in the same season, who are 2-0 going in to the 3rd game, are 14-7 I believe.

I could be wrong there because I calculated myself - so please correct me if I am wrong.

@sportschat

 Oh for sure.  0-2 brings out the trolls no matter what.

GL

Lets go for a 10 digit victory.

Well, yes they will.  Im pretty sure they will watch the tape and do more doubling on Chase and not allow the YAC.

So yes.  You got that part right.

@vanzack

 Ok that doesn’t go against my teaser. I like the 49rs just not as much as KC 

Laughing...Just read an article that wife's of the Ram's are pleading with fans to NOT SELL their tickets to

49er fans.  Went so far as to offer to by the tickets personally if that would save a 49er fan from getting them.

Unreal!  BOL Van

buy....not by

Same with Staffords wife

Here is Whitworth

https://nypost.com/2022/01/25/rams-andrew-whitworths-wife-issues-ticket-plea/

Sofi could look like 2020 season by denying all the 49er fans tickets.

Never in my life have I ever heard that an organization trying to control who buys the tickets.

I believe that's unprecedented, and sends a bad message to the players. We don't want anyone not rooting solely for you at this game because you really need the crowd to be on your side... If I was on that team I wouldn't like to hear them doing that, bunch of p*ssies...

I sure hope your right that Jimmy G could completely switch the narrative by playing big in this game. And if we get a rematch, fine, SF shutdown Rodgers, Mahomes is very special but not invinciable. 

Well I have to disagree with the kc score the numbers says different they have it a 3 point game the niners a 3 point game last weekend the numbers were spot on the had the bills winning by 3 we all know what happened 13 seconds the only game that the numbers was wrong or were they? Gl with your bets I have cin +7 niners + 3.5 both games very close

Sofi could look like 2020 season by denying all the 49er fans tickets.

Never in my life have I ever heard that an organization trying to control who buys the tickets

############################. s.++++ 

It's a made up story. Owners don't give a damn who buys

I just made post #23.

Wake up

My thoughts echoed yours on both games. I have to think both numbers are affected by recency bias, by Cincy's hanging with KC earlier in the month and the Rams' seeming like they've come together on both sides of the ball (until halftime against the GOAT). Those things aside, I think you'd be looking at both games on the other side of a key number, KC -8.5 and SF +2.5. SF has a huge coaching advantage here, too.

VZ!! assuming both advance. Curious what do you think the SB line would be if both teams relatively healthy. KC vs SF rematch. Thanks bro

@vanzack

 Kc will put up no more than 21.5….  Points!!!!

Bengals win outright !