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NFL AFC and NFC Championship Week Early Thoughts and Picks....

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Posted: #51

Quote Originally Posted by YouWish:

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack: Quote Originally Posted by Degenbeter: Yeah I agree big time on KC covering. Not as confident on the 49rs however I’ve noticed over the years that when a team almost blows it as the Rams did last game they seem to bounce back the next game. I took KC -6.5 as soon as I saw it kneejerk kind of bet. And I’m thinking of teasing KC -1 and 49rs +10.5 kind of LARGE on that teaser. Glad you like both teams. BOL Teams that play 3 times in the same season, who are 2-0 going in to the 3rd game, are 14-7 I believe. I could be wrong there because I calculated myself - so please correct me if I am wrong.   I heard the same exact numbers today.  14-7.  The "it's hard to beat a GOOD team three times in a row" is a myth lately.

 

fixed it for you peace_5

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Posted: #52

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Interesting Stat: Bengals took most sacks in the NFL when facing a 4 man defensive pass rush

And the Bengals run more empty sets than any team in the NFL.

If the Bengals get Burrow seriously hurt again(by not providing him a decent o line), they should go on trial.

Best of Luck this weekend peace_5

 
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Posted: #53

Quote Originally Posted by shababa:

@vanzack  Great write up man, you give a lot of beneficial information, for me at least. I have to agree with you on KC, they got the experience, coach, and qb which more times than not prevail in the playoffs. Throw in a bit of revenge factor and you got yourself pretty solid reasons for a KC win and cover. The second the Rams line came out at 3.5- I said Rams LINE DICTATES THE GAME. Man, that's an enticing line for a 9ers bettor, right? Not only did Vegas give ya 3 points after you've beat them 6 times in a row, they gave ya the hook as well AND you'll have more fans than the Rams at SOFI!!!!  Cannot disagree with the points you made, very solid, especially about McVey self destructing in big games. BUT, Rams turn now. Donald, Floyd, Miller on the D line is where they're gonna win.  Stafford, Kupp, ODB, Higbee, Akers will be too much.  Jimmy G will get his interception or 2 because of the high pressure he will experience all game. I'm not getting into the conspiracy chit, but you really gotta think about the NFL and what Kronke did bringing that team to LA??? Just some food for thought and my take on the game. GL to you rest of the way and I enjoy reading your stuff!!!!!!!!!!!

Thanks.

Hope you are wrong about the Rams.

GL

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Posted: #54

Quote Originally Posted by Onthereal:

Love the Chiefs this week. Think Cincy walks into a buzzsaw and gets routed. Will be on Andy and Pat large.   Haven't figured out the NFC yet. Weird game. Best of luck this week.

I think the chances of a "not close" game are very good.

I will be on alternative spread numbers also (laying more than 7 at +odds)

GL

peace_5

 

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Posted: #55

@philschnaars

 an_cheers

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Posted: #56

@undermysac

 I think Burrow is going to look like Brady did last week.

peace_5

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Posted: #57

Sweep your board BROTHER moneyeyes

You're a must read every week ...

The best of the best an_praise

BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
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Posted: #58

Well, having ya on the Rams 2 weeks in a row was wishful on my part.

Good luck on the KC game, I'll be rooting in the Rams just like i have since I was 5 

an_cheers

 
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Posted: #59

bol pal

 
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Posted: #60

@DoubleUp4Life

 

@LVTruck

 

@avenue

 peace_5an_cheers

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Posted: #61

an_cheers

Nicky Fatz
 
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Posted: #62

Ran across this stat today 

 

The #49ers Defense plays Zone on 72% of snaps; 7th highest rate in the NFL. Matthew Stafford has been a different quarterback when facing Man versus Zone.

Vs Man
+0.21 EPA
9.9 YPA
19 TDs / 2 INTs
134 Rating

Vs Zone 
+0.03 EPA
8.2 YPA
15 TDs / 14 INTs
92 Rating

 

 

 
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Posted: #63

Thank you for the writeups.  

 
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Posted: #64

Quote Originally Posted by LVTruck:

Ran across this stat today    The #49ers Defense plays Zone on 72% of snaps; 7th highest rate in the NFL. Matthew Stafford has been a different quarterback when facing Man versus Zone. Vs Man+0.21 EPA9.9 YPA19 TDs / 2 INTs134 Rating Vs Zone +0.03 EPA8.2 YPA15 TDs / 14 INTs92 Rating

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Posted: #65

Good Luck Vanzack

Winning isn’t everything.. It’s the Only thing.
 
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Posted: #66

@ChOmP

 Great to see you posting Chomp

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Posted: #67

@vanzack

The BIG day has arrived!  an_speak

BOL today, Covers Brother!  clover  peace_5

 
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Posted: #68

Quote Originally Posted by Walt_The_Weapon:

@vanzack The BIG day has arrived!   BOL today, Covers Brother!

Was wondering if you were going to bounce back from last weeks heartbreak.

Good to see you posting.

Lets go!

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Posted: #69

@vanzack

Heartbreaking, indeed... for soooo many of us (just 13 seconds away) from hitting the biggest ML Dog Parlay... ever! Glad I hedged in the 3rd for a nickel... helped ease some of the pain a bit!  an_timeout 

Let's getem today... EARLY and OFTEN!  an_horse

 
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Posted: #70

Good luck to you. Let's fucking go Niners. 

 
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Posted: #71

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Interesting Stat: Bengals took most sacks in the NFL when facing a 4 man defensive pass rush

Burrow has taken the most sacks of any QB ever to reach the Championship game. Every QB with at least 50 sacks didn't fair so well in this game

 
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Posted: #72

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

@undermysac  I think Burrow is going to look like Brady did last week.
I dont think KCs defense is anywhere near the Rams, especially on the D Line....

 

Vanpeace_5

 
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Posted: #73

Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack: @undermysac  I think Burrow is going to look like Brady did last week.I dont think KCs defense is anywhere near the Rams, especially on the D Line....   Van

I dont either.

But I certainly dont think the Bucs OLine is anywhere near the Bengals OLine either.  In a bad way.

peace_5

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Posted: #74

clover

 
 
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Posted: #75

@vanzack

Reverse line movement??

All the 7.5 are gone with the majority of the bets and money on KC I am having a hard time pulling the trigger on KC.

I think the line is right, 7.5 seemed to be begging for Cin $ while 7 is screaming KC.

Very low % of the time line actually matters so just pick the winner.
KC should win so……an_light

leaning KC and SF thanks for your write ups an_cheers

goodthread

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