Alright I've been thinking about this one alot, I've disected it as best I could and am going to bet with my nemesis, as painful as it is for me.
Playing
SD +6
- Again some of you know how much I hate this SD team. I also have a huge man crush on the Steelers Defense; great, punishing defense is one of my favortie things about football. In no way shape or form am I trying to go against Pitts D, or do I think San Diego is going to go in and light up the scoreboard. This play for the most part is going to be a fade of Roethlisberger covering 6 points, and below are the reasons why:
There's certain games and scenarios that keep coming back to me in deciding this play, theres alot of them actually. I'm going to do this in quick hit format.
- I would actually feel better about Pittsburgh if they were on the road. Ben has had some struggles in home playoff games in his career, and this was when he was healthy.
Examples:
2004 season, when they went 15-1, Ben played terribly against the Jets in the Divisional round and Pitt needed OT to win, and that was with a Jets kicker that missed two easy field goals. NE came into Pitt the next week and smoked them. 2005 season they were road warriors and everyone knows what happened. 2006 was forgettable, but last year everyone should remember how Jax came in and handled them for the second time on their own turf in the same year. Ben had a few strong moments but for the most part played a very erractic game and was a huge reason Pitt didn't move on.
A few games from this season that stand out: The Colts game, the Giants game, and the Dallas game. Ben played poorly in all three, and it was the Steelers defense that won the Cowboys game for them. Ben also played poorly against Baltimore earlier in the season and the Steelers almost blew it.
- Pitt has gone 3-4 against playoff teams, and the three games they won were by a combined 8 points. Take away a few very fortunate finishes for Pitt and this number could be worse. It should also be added that Pitts most impressive wins have come on the road this season. I am aware of San Diego's regular season record against Playoff teams (0-5). However, they lost those 5 games by a combined 19 points. So we have Pitt averaging a win of less than 3 points per game in the games they won against playoff teams, and San Diego losing by an average of less than 4 points per game in the ones they lost. Add in that San Diego got outright moosed on a couple of those losses and we have a precursor and logic that means this game should be close.
- So now that we have established the baseline for this, lets add in two very relevant and important factors:
1. Ben is coming off a concussion: For a guy who's decision making is questionable at times to begin with, this is in no way shape or form a good thing for Pitt. All it will take is one solid bell ringing and he could be seeing stars or have clouded vision. Alot of people are saying they would be better off with Leftwhich which I think is ludricrious, and if he enters the game asking him to cover 6 in a playoff game is ludicrious. I don't think Ben will be on his game and with an unusally unreliable Pitt running attack this year this is a very questionable scenario for Pitt backers.
2. San Diego is riding momentum and playing well. Look, it is documented I hate this team. I think Rivers is a complete tool, I can't stand Turner, I think LT is a box, etc, etc. Rivers however is a top 3 QB this year and is evolving into a leader. He gets frustrated and thrown off his game at times but he has proven he has guts. I think Sproles gives them a better shot than LT would, although again he is going to find it tough going for most of the game. I think he'll break one big play which should be enough to keep the game inside the number.
- Bottom Line, I think Pitt will win this with their defense, but I just could not bring myself to lay 6 with Ben in this situation. He has played poorly often this year, has struggled on this very field in the playoffs, and is now dealing with what is for all intensive purposes a brain injury. I think he is going to make a few mistakes that is going to force PItts D to really amp it up. San Diego may win the field position battle and has a special teams edge.
I see this going to the wire. I hope I'm wrong and Pitt drills them but I just don't see it happening.
BOL