***NFL Divisonal Playoffs***

That's great buddy. Start your own thread and see who cares how you roll.

Alright, enough back and forth on this one.

Baltimore +3

Baltimore +10 Under 41 (7 Point Tease)

- I've been going back and forth on this one in this thread all week.  I've been trying to talk myself out of going with the Ravens, out of backing a rookie quarterback on the road against a legit team.  I just can't do it.

Reasons, in order of importance to me:

Mawae being out is a much, much bigger factor than many will realize.  Anyone who has played offensive line will understand why though.  Mawae is both the centerpiece (literally), leader, and brains behind this Titans offensive line.  Does everyone know what a center does besides snap the ball and block?  The Center is responsible for making blocking scheme adjustments at the line of scrimmage, for one.  Has anybody noticed how unorthodox Baltimore's blitz schemes are?  They come from EVERYWHERE, often disguising them brilliantly.  They send 4 guys through a gap.  They blitz both safeties at once.  This defense is built on intimidation, but more importantly, its built on confusion.   Anyone want to guess a major reason the Colts blew the Ravens out?  Because Jeff Saturday is probably the best in the business when it comes to making line call adjustments at the line of scrimmage. 

- So, what is a backup center going to do against this defense?  Will Fisher have him do the line call adjustments, the blocking adjustments, or will he have someone else who is not used to doing it perform it instead?  Either way, it is not a good scenario.  Baltimore will most likely be flying free on several occasions, and last time I checked, Kerry Collins is the Titans quarterback.  Kerry Collins who has the mobility of a wheel chair patient after an all you can eat gorging at a Vegas buffet.  Kerry Collins who historically does not make good decisions under pressure, and tends to throw picks against tough defenses.

- Furthermore, a back up center vs Ngata is a major mismatch.  A major portion of the Titans ground game is running the ball up the middle, which is not going to happen on Saturday.  So where does that leave us?  What will Tennessee do?  They can try to stretch the field without vertical playmakers, which is really the only way this Baltimore defense can be had.  Unfortunatley for Tennessee they really don't possess any vertical threats.  They can pray that Chris Johnson gets to the edge and burns the Ravens on an over-sized run blitz, which is probable, but how many times will it happen.  I really can't see any feasible scenario where The Titans will consistently move the ball against this defense in this situation.

- Baltimore isn't exactly going to have a field day either on offense.  Flacco has to play mistake free like last week but he also has to increase and improve his accuracy and performance.  Tennessee is not a great blitz team but they have stuffed the run most of the season and they have some playmakers in the secondary.  I have talked about this at length but I think this is going to be a tug of war until late in the game when Haynesworth starts wearing down.  It is almost physically impossible for a guy coming off a bum knee to sustain a physical presence for an entire game in a smashmouth situation.  I think Balty eventually wears them down.

Coaching, other factors:

Fisher has the experience edge no doubt, but his playoff record isn't exactly world beating.  He has also made some curious decisions at certain times this year (Houston as an example).  Harbaugh has proven to be an effective leader so far so I don't see any scenario where Baltiomre does not come out fired up.  Rex Ryan will not be out-schemed by anyone on the Tennessee sidelines.

Bottom line:

I really tried to make a case for Tennessee, mostly because everyone is hammering Baltimore.  I am not going ignore some glaring mismatches this time.  Tennessee has the rest advantage and I fully expect them to give a strong effort, but I think the key variable of the Baltimore Blitz vs Collins and a backup center is too much to ignore.  The middle of the line is going to be caving like Robert Downey Jr with a plate full of fresh cut coke in front of him.

BOL

Pitt/SD - A little crossed up here still too.  Trying to think with my head and not my heart, as while I am not a life long Steelers fan I absolutely LOVE tough defenses and I respect the hell out of what they do.  At the same time I despise San Diego.  I am highly confident that Pitt wins this game but the -6  is giving me serious pause.  May have to puss out and take the moneyline.

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Somethin to think about is, Chargers are a BEAST at home and in December under Norv Turner going like 9-1. This is January and they are on the road and Chargers tend to choke in the playoffs, all trends working against them against Pitt. There's no way Sproles will be able to run up on Pitt D like they did against the Colts small DL which are similar to Denver's DL. Pitt DL are alot bigger and faster. Sproles will understand why tomorrow he is NOT an every down back. LT is doubtful from what I heard but we shall see, they'll have a chance if LT is playing but I seriously doubt it, against a Pitt DL. To end my rambling, Chargers are the worst defensive team in the playoffs, that should let you know Pitt will be moving up/down the field on them all day. I believe with the extra wk off, Ben will be fine. Line opened at -6 and I am seeing -6.5 at a couple of other sites, the sharps are already jumping on Pitt -6 early.