Posted:
#76
CAROLINA -10 ALL IN!!!!!
***NFL Divisonal Playoffs***
Posted:
#80
Quote Originally Posted by BigHans:
Alright, enough back and forth on this one.
Baltimore +3
Baltimore +10 Under 41 (7 Point Tease)
- I've been going back and forth on this one in this thread all week. I've been trying to talk myself out of going with the Ravens, out of backing a rookie quarterback on the road against a legit team. I just can't do it.
Reasons, in order of importance to me:
Mawae being out is a much, much bigger factor than many will realize. Anyone who has played offensive line will understand why though. Mawae is both the centerpiece (literally), leader, and brains behind this Titans offensive line. Does everyone know what a center does besides snap the ball and block? The Center is responsible for making blocking scheme adjustments at the line of scrimmage, for one. Has anybody noticed how unorthodox Baltimore's blitz schemes are? They come from EVERYWHERE, often disguising them brilliantly. They send 4 guys through a gap. They blitz both safeties at once. This defense is built on intimidation, but more importantly, its built on confusion. Anyone want to guess a major reason the Colts blew the Ravens out? Because Jeff Saturday is probably the best in the business when it comes to making line call adjustments at the line of scrimmage.
- So, what is a backup center going to do against this defense? Will Fisher have him do the line call adjustments, the blocking adjustments, or will he have someone else who is not used to doing it perform it instead? Either way, it is not a good scenario. Baltimore will most likely be flying free on several occasions, and last time I checked, Kerry Collins is the Titans quarterback. Kerry Collins who has the mobility of a wheel chair patient after an all you can eat gorging at a Vegas buffet. Kerry Collins who historically does not make good decisions under pressure, and tends to throw picks against tough defenses.
- Furthermore, a back up center vs Ngata is a major mismatch. A major portion of the Titans ground game is running the ball up the middle, which is not going to happen on Saturday. So where does that leave us? What will Tennessee do? They can try to stretch the field without vertical playmakers, which is really the only way this Baltimore defense can be had. Unfortunatley for Tennessee they really don't possess any vertical threats. They can pray that Chris Johnson gets to the edge and burns the Ravens on an over-sized run blitz, which is probable, but how many times will it happen. I really can't see any feasible scenario where The Titans will consistently move the ball against this defense in this situation.
- Baltimore isn't exactly going to have a field day either on offense. Flacco has to play mistake free like last week but he also has to increase and improve his accuracy and performance. Tennessee is not a great blitz team but they have stuffed the run most of the season and they have some playmakers in the secondary. I have talked about this at length but I think this is going to be a tug of war until late in the game when Haynesworth starts wearing down. It is almost physically impossible for a guy coming off a bum knee to sustain a physical presence for an entire game in a smashmouth situation. I think Balty eventually wears them down.
Coaching, other factors:
Fisher has the experience edge no doubt, but his playoff record isn't exactly world beating. He has also made some curious decisions at certain times this year (Houston as an example). Harbaugh has proven to be an effective leader so far so I don't see any scenario where Baltiomre does not come out fired up. Rex Ryan will not be out-schemed by anyone on the Tennessee sidelines.
Bottom line:
I really tried to make a case for Tennessee, mostly because everyone is hammering Baltimore. I am not going ignore some glaring mismatches this time. Tennessee has the rest advantage and I fully expect them to give a strong effort, but I think the key variable of the Baltimore Blitz vs Collins and a backup center is too much to ignore. The middle of the line is going to be caving like Robert Downey Jr with a plate full of fresh cut coke in front of him.
BOL
While agreeing to you write up about how Ravens defense will play against the Titans. In my view, it the Titans just play it slow and conservative they will win the game by forcing Flacco into one or two difficult situations. This is where savvy and experience really matter. The team that make the less mistake in this game will win. Some how, I believe the Titans will make less mistake in this game.
BOL
Every day out of the red is a big win.
Posted:
#83
BigHans,
Great job dude.
San Diego+6/Under
The weather will play a factor as well as both teams will run ball control/possesion type offenses. This will lead to a low scoring game. Pittsburge has an awesome D, but San Diego has been playing much better D since Rivera took over. They should have had 6 picks last week against Manning, but secondary cant catch.
Posted:
#88
My simple input would be......9.5 in a playoff game is 'NUTWORTHY'......If this is your bet of the week, I completly respect that. But not only does Arizona have the heart and desire (see coach, quarterback, running back and both wide outs) to win THIS GAME, but what about covering 9.5, or a bullshit back door cover. Arizona gets the ball back, 4 min to go, down 16. And Caroline puts in scrubs for injury purposes, lets Zona score a meaningless TD, and runs out the clock. This bet will go down to the wire, regardless of who is playing well.
I just think this is to many points to mess with....But GL to YOU
GL to all and get that money
Posted:
#96
Pitt/SD - A little crossed up here still too. Trying to think with my head and not my heart, as while I am not a life long Steelers fan I absolutely LOVE tough defenses and I respect the hell out of what they do. At the same time I despise San Diego. I am highly confident that Pitt wins this game but the -6 is giving me serious pause. May have to puss out and take the moneyline.
====================
Somethin to think about is, Chargers are a BEAST at home and in December under Norv Turner going like 9-1. This is January and they are on the road and Chargers tend to choke in the playoffs, all trends working against them against Pitt. There's no way Sproles will be able to run up on Pitt D like they did against the Colts small DL which are similar to Denver's DL. Pitt DL are alot bigger and faster. Sproles will understand why tomorrow he is NOT an every down back. LT is doubtful from what I heard but we shall see, they'll have a chance if LT is playing but I seriously doubt it, against a Pitt DL. To end my rambling, Chargers are the worst defensive team in the playoffs, that should let you know Pitt will be moving up/down the field on them all day. I believe with the extra wk off, Ben will be fine. Line opened at -6 and I am seeing -6.5 at a couple of other sites, the sharps are already jumping on Pitt -6 early.
Posted:
#97
Big Hans...I said I would drop back in with my picks before the games.Love your insights as I posted earlier this week. We are often on the same wavelength. Now , I do read a lot of these other posts and obviously any well crafted writer can spin a fine bias on their points in alignment with their selection so please take what I am about to write with a grain of salt.
I like BAL 16-13 OR 19-13
When these two teams met in week # 5 ,Flacco was still wearing diapers and had thrown 7 picks in 5 games and now he has come a long way.BAL really took it to them and were up 285-210 in yardage as well.A phantom interfence call on Suggs gave TEN a game I feel BAL would have won.He has thrown only 5 in his last 12 games.Cam Cameron has opened up the pkg. recently with the big play capability and they have been finding the receivers.
In as far as the rap that BAL only beats weaklings, let's be real- their two losses to PIT were both by 3 pts. and one was in OT. They were controlling PIT and up 10-6 when we had a call reversed that I felt lacked sufficient evidence to overturn.Otherwise with 43 sec. to go HC Tomlin is forced to make the toughest decision of his short career.BAL was swinging with the big boys and easily could have walked out with 2 of those 3 THREE pt. losses to TEN/PIT.
Now, they have gone into DAL and bitch slapped them and just knocked off an 11-5 divisional winner (MIA) where the veteran QB lost the turnover game 5-0 (4 INT) ( should have been 6-0) if Reed didn't let his surefire 3rd INT of the game slip thru his hands.
These guys are gellin' like a felon ( props to Dr. Scholl) and rested divisional home teams have not fared well in the last few years.Mawae's absence under center is HUGE!...Leroy Harris will be asked to stop the Samoan ploughhourse DT Haloti Ngota ( like that is going to happen) plus you couple that with his signal calling going up against a savvy cerebral thinker like Lewis....can you say mismatch to the nth degree.
Lastly Collins is a very good intermediate thrower but if he tries to stretch the field , you can be sure he better account for Ed Reed, who may go down as the best ball-hawking safety the game has ever seen.Collins is not very accurate in his long range throws.
I did notice how bad Flacco was in the 2nd hal vs. a pass rush that is a lot tamer than what he will see today and they were tiring on defense in the 4th Q. and are now asked to vanquish the mighty Titans in their homefield on a short week in what is their 4th road game in 5 weeks but I feel one team is a lot more improved and that momentum will be their keeper. No one will know how healed Vanden Bosch is from that surgery until he gets battle tested in the trenches and I know for a fact that Haynesworth is far from 100%.
I feel this rookie QB ain't your average rook and he will win the turnover battle between him and Collins by a +2 margin.He is unflappable even when he's getting the kitchen sink thrown at him.Ravens will have to be very careful to prevent Chris Johnson from busting some big ones but you know that the Titans will have their hands full with up and coming running sensation FB McLain mixed with McGahee. I do not see Ron Rice on the injury reports yet I hear no talk of him this week.
My time is short as I have guests coming but here are the rest of my picks for TOTAL REMATCH week.
CAR 34 AZ 17
NYG 24 PHI 17
PIT 21 SD 16
CAR will roll these guys and NYG will show everyone that all is fine in NYC and they will quell all of this talk about the resurging Iggles. Gimme a break.McNabb in a big game....does the biased Philly fanship forget the game vs. WAS ( also a must win at the time).I knew they would smoke DAL and the game vs. the Gmen in NYC-I even called for an exact 6 pt. win by PHI..it was my P.O.W....so many things were not right in that game for NYG and it was a nothing game as they had a 2 game lead on CAR at the time for HFA all the way through.NO Jacobs, the "incident" the nite before which def affected Antonio Pierce and Jason Tuck was sick.Their coaching and home field will bode well for the Gmen this week I truly feel...we'll see tomorrow.
Enjoy the games....WHAT A WEEKEND!
If all goes the way I predict we will have a TOTAL REMATCH weekend next week as well!
Posted:
#98
Quote Originally Posted by texancapper:
i took the pitt ml. not sure you call it pussing out as much as a smart move. dicking around with what if 3's or 6's is stupid. pitt wins this with a superior advantage of field, coaching, defense. roth been roughed up before. doing this virtual m-r-i game with his concussion is lame. the guy's not a vegetable. he plays like one sometimes but it's not a game breaker. take the ml.Pitt/SD - A little crossed up here still too. Trying to think with my head and not my heart, as while I am not a life long Steelers fan I absolutely LOVE tough defenses and I respect the hell out of what they do. At the same time I despise San Diego. I am highly confident that Pitt wins this game but the -6 is giving me serious pause. May have to puss out and take the moneyline.
====================
Somethin to think about is, Chargers are a BEAST at home and in December under Norv Turner going like 9-1. This is January and they are on the road and Chargers tend to choke in the playoffs, all trends working against them against Pitt. There's no way Sproles will be able to run up on Pitt D like they did against the Colts small DL which are similar to Denver's DL. Pitt DL are alot bigger and faster. Sproles will understand why tomorrow he is NOT an every down back. LT is doubtful from what I heard but we shall see, they'll have a chance if LT is playing but I seriously doubt it, against a Pitt DL. To end my rambling, Chargers are the worst defensive team in the playoffs, that should let you know Pitt will be moving up/down the field on them all day. I believe with the extra wk off, Ben will be fine. Line opened at -6 and I am seeing -6.5 at a couple of other sites, the sharps are already jumping on Pitt -6 early.
Posted:
#99
Quote Originally Posted by malibusurfer:
i took the pitt ml. not sure you call it pussing out as much as a smart move. dicking around with what if 3's or 6's is stupid. pitt wins this with a superior advantage of field, coaching, defense. roth been roughed up before. doing this virtual m-r-i game with his concussion is lame. the guy's not a vegetable. he plays like one sometimes but it's not a game breaker. take the ml.
i took the pitt ml. not sure you call it pussing out as much as a smart move. dicking around with what if 3's or 6's is stupid. pitt wins this with a superior advantage of field, coaching, defense. roth been roughed up before. doing this virtual m-r-i game with his concussion is lame. the guy's not a vegetable. he plays like one sometimes but it's not a game breaker. take the ml.
Agreed that Pitt pulls this out, but I see the value in the +_6. I thought about going for a middle and playing Pitt moneyline as well but I didn't want to eat the -250.
BOL
Posted:
#100
Quote Originally Posted by xflrejects:
Big Hans...I said I would drop back in with my picks before the games.Love your insights as I posted earlier this week. We are often on the same wavelength. Now , I do read a lot of these other posts and obviously any well crafted writer can spin a fine bias on their points in alignment with their selection so please take what I am about to write with a grain of salt.
I like BAL 16-13 OR 19-13
When these two teams met in week # 5 ,Flacco was still wearing diapers and had thrown 7 picks in 5 games and now he has come a long way.BAL really took it to them and were up 285-210 in yardage as well.A phantom interfence call on Suggs gave TEN a game I feel BAL would have won.He has thrown only 5 in his last 12 games.Cam Cameron has opened up the pkg. recently with the big play capability and they have been finding the receivers.
In as far as the rap that BAL only beats weaklings, let's be real- their two losses to PIT were both by 3 pts. and one was in OT. They were controlling PIT and up 10-6 when we had a call reversed that I felt lacked sufficient evidence to overturn.Otherwise with 43 sec. to go HC Tomlin is forced to make the toughest decision of his short career.BAL was swinging with the big boys and easily could have walked out with 2 of those 3 THREE pt. losses to TEN/PIT.
Now, they have gone into DAL and bitch slapped them and just knocked off an 11-5 divisional winner (MIA) where the veteran QB lost the turnover game 5-0 (4 INT) ( should have been 6-0) if Reed didn't let his surefire 3rd INT of the game slip thru his hands.
These guys are gellin' like a felon ( props to Dr. Scholl) and rested divisional home teams have not fared well in the last few years.Mawae's absence under center is HUGE!...Leroy Harris will be asked to stop the Samoan ploughhourse DT Haloti Ngota ( like that is going to happen) plus you couple that with his signal calling going up against a savvy cerebral thinker like Lewis....can you say mismatch to the nth degree.
Lastly Collins is a very good intermediate thrower but if he tries to stretch the field , you can be sure he better account for Ed Reed, who may go down as the best ball-hawking safety the game has ever seen.Collins is not very accurate in his long range throws.
I did notice how bad Flacco was in the 2nd hal vs. a pass rush that is a lot tamer than what he will see today and they were tiring on defense in the 4th Q. and are now asked to vanquish the mighty Titans in their homefield on a short week in what is their 4th road game in 5 weeks but I feel one team is a lot more improved and that momentum will be their keeper. No one will know how healed Vanden Bosch is from that surgery until he gets battle tested in the trenches and I know for a fact that Haynesworth is far from 100%.
I feel this rookie QB ain't your average rook and he will win the turnover battle between him and Collins by a +2 margin.He is unflappable even when he's getting the kitchen sink thrown at him.Ravens will have to be very careful to prevent Chris Johnson from busting some big ones but you know that the Titans will have their hands full with up and coming running sensation FB McLain mixed with McGahee. I do not see Ron Rice on the injury reports yet I hear no talk of him this week.
My time is short as I have guests coming but here are the rest of my picks for TOTAL REMATCH week.
CAR 34 AZ 17
NYG 24 PHI 17
PIT 21 SD 16
CAR will roll these guys and NYG will show everyone that all is fine in NYC and they will quell all of this talk about the resurging Iggles. Gimme a break.McNabb in a big game....does the biased Philly fanship forget the game vs. WAS ( also a must win at the time).I knew they would smoke DAL and the game vs. the Gmen in NYC-I even called for an exact 6 pt. win by PHI..it was my P.O.W....so many things were not right in that game for NYG and it was a nothing game as they had a 2 game lead on CAR at the time for HFA all the way through.NO Jacobs, the "incident" the nite before which def affected Antonio Pierce and Jason Tuck was sick.Their coaching and home field will bode well for the Gmen this week I truly feel...we'll see tomorrow.
Enjoy the games....WHAT A WEEKEND!
If all goes the way I predict we will have a TOTAL REMATCH weekend next week as well!
Excellent write up bro
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