Posted:
#1
47-31-4 YTD Posted
- Well, went 3-4 last week. Went against my instinct on San Diego and tried to get cute with plays on Miami and Minnesota. Thats the price I paid for laying money on Tarvaris and ignoring an enormous matchup mis-match against the Eagles blitz. Lesson learned.
- On to this week, still alot of homework to do, but my first play I am going large on. I really, really like this play, although I would have preferred Arizona would've had to play the Giants in the cold.
Playing
Carolina -9.5 (Large)
Fun Stats to start it off:
- Arizona is 2-7 this year against either playoff teams or teams that were in contention and barely missed. (Losses to NE, Washington, Carolina, Philly, Minnesota, Giants, and the Jets, wins at home against Dallas and Miami very early). The combined average loss for these games was by 18 points.
- Arizona is 0-5 playing on the Eastern Time zone, losing by an average of 20 points.
- Arizona is also 0-5 against Physical style football teams, which Carolina certainly qualifies at.
- Defensively, Arizona is giving up 31 points per game on the road. Their rushing yardage allowed is not bottom tier but their road stats are skewed by playing a few poor rushing teams in the first place.
As for Carolina, the only teams that gave them any trouble whatsoever were physical style teams with either strong running games and/or strong defenses they played on the road (Minnesota, Giants, Atlanta, Tampa).
- Carolina went undefeated in their home games, winning by an average of 17 points per game, including a ppg average of almost 30, which combined with Arizona giving up 30 on the road is a glaring stat.
- Carolina rushed for an average of 173 yards per game and 5.0 yards per carry at home. Being this is a playoff game, the ground attack will be more prevelant.
Other relevant points and Bottom Line:
- I tried to fade Carolina a few times at home this season and learned a hard lesson. This team takes pride in smashing defenses in the face on the ground, and their two-headed monster rushing attack led by Deangelo Williams is absolutely on fire right now. I think they are going to run all over the Cardinals in this game, and with a large spread like this running the ball is of paramount importance because it is the best guard against a back door cover.
- Defensively, Carolina has been had a few times but rarely at home, as they are only giving up 14 yards per game. Being that Boldin is banged up, Lucas and Gamble should have moderate success against the Cardinals air attack, and I expect to see alot of 3 and outs. I also see Peppers and Jon Beason absolutely wreaking havoc on Warner. A statute like quarterback against a resurgent Peppers is not good news for Cardinal backers. Warner is going to be put on his back and hurried for most of this game, and I expect alot of three and outs and poor field position for Arizona, which sets up right into the hands of a Panthers rushing attack that is rolling along like a tank right now.
- The bottom line is Arizona is a soft, pass first team. That works fine when they are playing at home against a rookie quarterback or the NFC West. It does not bode well on the road versus a physically tough team that takes pleasure in punishing opponents. I have a small worry about laying this much chalk with Delhomme but I don't think the game is going to be in his hands that much.
I am aware this Cardinals team almost beat Carolina earlier this year, but Zona was playing better at the time and Carolina wasn't really rolling along yet.
Arizona has proven to be a patsy against both physical teams and when they have to travel cross country, and being that playoff games are more physical this game is setting up to be a complete and utter rout.
Carolina 31 Arizona 13
BOL more to come later
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They are going against one of the top offenses in Cards. Cards defense statistically is not that bad ranked 18th in the NFL. Yes i know they played in the touted NFC west. IMO the key in this game is turnovers, on the season Carolina is +6 Arizona even. When Arizona has been killed on the road Warner has thrown 3 Ints (Jets and Eagles). If the turnover battle is close Arizona keeps it within 10. If they don't this could be a shit show. Warner hasn't played well on the road all year why should he start now? Carolina is sick at home. Delhomme is a seasoned quarterback Fox is a proven coach Public pounding the underdog. There is no doubt Carolina wins this game. Not sure they cover 10. My play this weekend will be a 7 point teaser: Maybe my only play. 
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