NFL PLAY OF THE WEEK

I know no one likes to see these play of the years but I stay out of the football forum unless i really can contribute and this week I can.

 

49ERS +3

 

Someone convince me that the true line for this game shouldn't be SF -3.5-5.5. I have SF running away with this one. Gore gets big chunks of yards forcing NE to commit more to run opening plays for Osullivan in the passing game. SF shuts down NE running game forcing them to be 1 dimensional and I just dont think that 1 dimension is enough to get it done. I have SF leading by 6-10 going into the half and depending on their approach in 2nd half I see them winning by anywhere from that same margin to about 14-17. Gore forces Ne to make adjustments, SF forces NE to be 1 dimensional. Anyone oppose? I know this wont be a public pick or a trendy pick but I've never cared about what other people are on especially the public.

Forget the +3 give me the moneyline!

Bill Belicheck and 2 weeks to prepare....

Niners are the POY??  Niners making teams one dimensional ??Mike Nolan will get out coached by Belicheck

This would be a great time for the casino to take the public's money because of the super-obvious appeal of the Pats... A -3 against the Niners? At first glance it look like a sure bet.... The Niners arent great but the arent the worst team in the league, they put up big points aginst seattle. Not that seattle is anything great, but it shows that their offense can indeed produce

The Pats will be Lucky to go 1-2 in the coming weeks

 

 

This is what Bodog is offering:

 

	423	New England Patriots	-3 (-125)	-	-
	424	San Francisco 49ers	+3 (+105)	-	-

 

Seems to me like the Pats will be at an all time low as far as motivation to perform, atleast, in the last couple years. Although i have been fading the Niners all year so far this might actually be the time to go with them.... Atleast maybe as a leg in a teaser, the +105 will add a little extra value to the final payout... 

Who thinks getting in on that +105 early is a good idea? Seems probable that it gets bet down, anyone agree?

Pats should rebound.   I'm sure Belichick had Pats go through hell week again during the bye.

There are about 4 or 5 games this week with some scary lines and this is definately one of them. Will be very low on my list of confidence plays and certainly won't be betting it. GL though with your play

I luv your play here, the Patriots beating down the rest of the league era has come to an end! I cant wait till the Pats play Buffalo, remember that Sunday night game last year vs the Bills, oh yea, the Bills have not forgotten, paybacks are coming! As far as the 49ers, they are a great play this week at home, especially in a dog role, lets get that money this week! 

Pats after getting blown out by Miami, and coming off a bye week?  I didnt go large but  i did bet on the Pats, i know they are not nearly as good with brady out but they are still a playoff team IMO and their defence is still solid contrary to what some might believe.  They will be ready, and i would not bet against them...... Dont forget they are a good road team, it was a freak of luck for the Fins the last game.

I will have a complete run down of why later this evening but I think alot of you are overvaluing the pats and also their week off. Remember that although Bill is extremely smart he always had Brady (smartest qb in league) executing his gameplan. Their lack of a consistent run game has plagued Cassell who unlike Brady can't challenge teams downfield to take pressure off intermediate and short passing routes (Teams are jumping routes and they don't really fear the deep ball, said considering you have the best deep ball wr in the league on your team). Remember also their LB are old and have been slow in stopping runs routinely giving up 4-5 ypc. SF will let Gore do his thing to open up opps for Osullivan unlike last week where they were pass first team because they thought NO secondary was so weak they would pass all over them without having to run, however because the lack of run play calls NO was getting ot the qb and wasn't respecting the run, they were getting gashed because of this but Gore only recieved 18 carries. Lastly Samuel is gone (obviously) and it takes away from things they like to do. You could lock up Samuel in single coverage and not have to worry. This allowed for Different blitzes and run packages to be dialed up especially with the interchangable parts NE has up front. However this year that D to me looks like it finally aged and the lack of a shutdown corner to help cover up some of that, and a decent running game to keep them off the field have made this readily more appearant than I thought would be the case in the begining of the year. I had the bills winning this divison even with a healthy Brady, now I see the Pats as a team who will be about 6-10 and rather than finish 2nd finish 3rd (this coming from a person who thinks the Jets are overrated themselves). They struggled with KC who stupidly didn't run as much as they should have or they might have been able to do what Miami did. Vegas knows how smart Bill is and that the action would be one sided on the Pats when they made this line, I just don't think they care. The move from -3 -110 to -3 -125 to me makes this even more appearant, that move is the same as going from -3 -110 to -3.5 -115 however they didn't decide to go that direction, they want the losing vig at -125. Niners win by at least 6-7

I'm not overemphasizing the Miami game, the game that sticks out to me the most is the KC game, and even the Jets game they won. It's hard to play in 80+ Miami weather when your used to playing in MASS. Besides that Miami threw everything they could at them, I thought I was watching Ronnie Brown at Auburn not in the NFL. Direct snap runs, passes, it was something to watch, Belive me I'm not putting a ton of stock in that game, however I still like the niners.

Betting against Belichik, as an underdog, with 2 weeks to prepare, against a team that his shown no consistency, is hardly worthy of being considered a "NFL Play of the Year".  As I said above, if I had to pick a side, it would be SF, but let's be more rational about our posts next time.  Enjoy your week.  GL

N.E will be so public its not even funny.

I believe New England will be very prepared for this game and the Niners are going down!  Look for Cassel to be in synch this weekend with Moss and for the Pats to control the line of scrimmage on both sides! 

arod1186, I think you've come up with something good here.  I hope people don't overlook your play of the week, because this is a beautiful opportunity to exploit how weak the Patriots have become.  Thanks for posting that writeup.  Great contribution.

 

Matt Cassel is simply unqualified for his starting job and he's not going to get much better.  I still can't believe a quarterback who barely played at all in college is starting in the NFL.  That's unheard of.  The results are, and will continue to be, predictably poor.

when i saw the line, i was all over new england. after reading these threads, i might have to reconsider. good luck to you.

MrB, didn't brady barely play in college?  maybe im wrong, but either way i dont think the fact that someone barely played in college necessarily tells you anything about him.  maybe cassel sucks, but he had an extra two weeks of taking snaps as a first stringer going into this game.  i like their chances in this spot. so much can change from week to week, especially with the offensive and defensive lines.  thats why i am also willing to bet on the sorry ass detroit lions this week.  one of the worst defenses in history to date, but if they bring it this week, they may look like a mediocre defense (atleast for 1 game, but that's all i need).