@theclaw just posted this elsewhere.... Brady also 0-4 ATS this season in night time prime time games.... it was 0-11 going back to 2021 until he covered on the road last year vs the hapless Giants. So now something like 1-15 ATS prime time night games as a Buccaneer.
Whoever posted that is wrong. When Dallas and Tampa played in week 1 this season it was in primetime (Sunday Night). Doesn't anyone remember that? Tampa's defense put a whoopin on the Boys. And Brady won 19-3 as a 2.5 pt favorite.
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Quote Originally Posted by kcblitzkrieg:
@theclaw just posted this elsewhere.... Brady also 0-4 ATS this season in night time prime time games.... it was 0-11 going back to 2021 until he covered on the road last year vs the hapless Giants. So now something like 1-15 ATS prime time night games as a Buccaneer.
Whoever posted that is wrong. When Dallas and Tampa played in week 1 this season it was in primetime (Sunday Night). Doesn't anyone remember that? Tampa's defense put a whoopin on the Boys. And Brady won 19-3 as a 2.5 pt favorite.
2 seeds VS 7's now go to 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS with 3 of 4 wins by 16 pts or more the other by 11.
Let's see if Bills can join the group tomorrow.
Seahawks had everything going well untill Geno fumbles, had they gotten a TD there maybe they could of hung in a bit more.
But once 9ers scored a TD off the fumble to go up 2 TD's it seemed Seahawks might have panic a little making mistake after mistake with penalties and an INT.
9ers will rate pretty strong for that game.
I was hoping game would of been closer to set up next week.
Purdy with a 131 QBPR, did you see that stat, Purdy has 2cd best QBPR in history after 5 games, a tad better then Mahomes with Kurt Warner and the greatest show on turf being the best after 5 games.
2
2 seeds VS 7's now go to 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS with 3 of 4 wins by 16 pts or more the other by 11.
Let's see if Bills can join the group tomorrow.
Seahawks had everything going well untill Geno fumbles, had they gotten a TD there maybe they could of hung in a bit more.
But once 9ers scored a TD off the fumble to go up 2 TD's it seemed Seahawks might have panic a little making mistake after mistake with penalties and an INT.
9ers will rate pretty strong for that game.
I was hoping game would of been closer to set up next week.
Purdy with a 131 QBPR, did you see that stat, Purdy has 2cd best QBPR in history after 5 games, a tad better then Mahomes with Kurt Warner and the greatest show on turf being the best after 5 games.
Bills -13 (-120) over Dolphins Bills to win AFC +200 --- 2 units pending plays ................. Jags +2.5 over Chargers --- 2.2 units Giants +3 over Vikings --- 1.1 units Boys -2.5 over Bucs --- 1.1 units pending futures .......................... 9ers & Eagles to win NFC 9ers and Eagles to win SB
first thanks for your time and effort to post. Are you on bills spread tomorrow or only on them to win the AFC?
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Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:
Bills -13 (-120) over Dolphins Bills to win AFC +200 --- 2 units pending plays ................. Jags +2.5 over Chargers --- 2.2 units Giants +3 over Vikings --- 1.1 units Boys -2.5 over Bucs --- 1.1 units pending futures .......................... 9ers & Eagles to win NFC 9ers and Eagles to win SB
first thanks for your time and effort to post. Are you on bills spread tomorrow or only on them to win the AFC?
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw: Bills -13 (-120) over Dolphins Bills to win AFC +200 --- 2 units pending plays ................. Jags +2.5 over Chargers --- 2.2 units Giants +3 over Vikings --- 1.1 units Boys -2.5 over Bucs --- 1.1 units pending futures .......................... 9ers & Eagles to win NFC 9ers and Eagles to win SB first thanks for your time and effort to post. Are you on bills spread tomorrow or only on them to win the AFC?
om both
0
Quote Originally Posted by brettcards:
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw: Bills -13 (-120) over Dolphins Bills to win AFC +200 --- 2 units pending plays ................. Jags +2.5 over Chargers --- 2.2 units Giants +3 over Vikings --- 1.1 units Boys -2.5 over Bucs --- 1.1 units pending futures .......................... 9ers & Eagles to win NFC 9ers and Eagles to win SB first thanks for your time and effort to post. Are you on bills spread tomorrow or only on them to win the AFC?
Quote Originally Posted by Gochu4u: Taking cowgirls as favs in the playoffs??? Ponder on that for a minute…. Just saying… The bookie is also saying "here you go, Tom Brady a home dog in the playoffs, what side do you want?"
(Light bulb)
I wanna bet this game badly because its an intriguing matchup to me, but we dont make $ making plays just to have action so ill be watching and rooting for brady (i hate the cowboys) and im not a fan of mike mac if it comes down to key situational football where 1 play call or even clock management could decide it.... if this game was on turf id be on the cowboys.
0
Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:
Quote Originally Posted by Gochu4u: Taking cowgirls as favs in the playoffs??? Ponder on that for a minute…. Just saying… The bookie is also saying "here you go, Tom Brady a home dog in the playoffs, what side do you want?"
(Light bulb)
I wanna bet this game badly because its an intriguing matchup to me, but we dont make $ making plays just to have action so ill be watching and rooting for brady (i hate the cowboys) and im not a fan of mike mac if it comes down to key situational football where 1 play call or even clock management could decide it.... if this game was on turf id be on the cowboys.
Quote Originally Posted by undermysac: Quote Originally Posted by Gochu4u: Taking cowgirls as favs in the playoffs??? Ponder on that for a minute…. Just saying… The bookie is also saying "here you go, Tom Brady a home dog in the playoffs, what side do you want?" (Light bulb) I wanna bet this game badly because its an intriguing matchup to me, but we dont make $ making plays just to have action so ill be watching and rooting for brady (i hate the cowboys) and im not a fan of mike mac if it comes down to key situational football where 1 play call or even clock management could decide it.... if this game was on turf id be on the cowboys.
yessir
No gamble No future
0
Quote Originally Posted by dduukkee:
Quote Originally Posted by undermysac: Quote Originally Posted by Gochu4u: Taking cowgirls as favs in the playoffs??? Ponder on that for a minute…. Just saying… The bookie is also saying "here you go, Tom Brady a home dog in the playoffs, what side do you want?" (Light bulb) I wanna bet this game badly because its an intriguing matchup to me, but we dont make $ making plays just to have action so ill be watching and rooting for brady (i hate the cowboys) and im not a fan of mike mac if it comes down to key situational football where 1 play call or even clock management could decide it.... if this game was on turf id be on the cowboys.
Quote Originally Posted by brettcards: Quote Originally Posted by theclaw: Bills -13 (-120) over Dolphins Bills to win AFC +200 --- 2 units pending plays ................. Jags +2.5 over Chargers --- 2.2 units Giants +3 over Vikings --- 1.1 units Boys -2.5 over Bucs --- 1.1 units pending futures .......................... 9ers & Eagles to win NFC 9ers and Eagles to win SB first thanks for your time and effort to post. Are you on bills spread tomorrow or only on them to win the AFC? om both
thanks for the response - todays game 1U or 2U?
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Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:
Quote Originally Posted by brettcards: Quote Originally Posted by theclaw: Bills -13 (-120) over Dolphins Bills to win AFC +200 --- 2 units pending plays ................. Jags +2.5 over Chargers --- 2.2 units Giants +3 over Vikings --- 1.1 units Boys -2.5 over Bucs --- 1.1 units pending futures .......................... 9ers & Eagles to win NFC 9ers and Eagles to win SB first thanks for your time and effort to post. Are you on bills spread tomorrow or only on them to win the AFC? om both
Quote Originally Posted by pinkDRAGON: some people are crazy nerdy when it comes to sports ..... thanks for the being that nerd for us I second that. This is a lot of information and it's really good stuff.
thank you ..................................
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Quote Originally Posted by MrBator:
Quote Originally Posted by pinkDRAGON: some people are crazy nerdy when it comes to sports ..... thanks for the being that nerd for us I second that. This is a lot of information and it's really good stuff.
Good ole EWM, one of my favorite methods. I research which stat has the highest correlation with the SB winner's margin of victory through the Playoffs, and it's not pt margin or yards per pt, in fact has nothing to do with pts scored or pts given up.
I orginally used this method only for the SB game and had success sometimes calling the margin with 1 pt or 2 or 3 but then found I could use it in others rounds as well, even for teams don't win the SB.
It works like this, each team based on the key stat gets so many pts through the playoffs so for WC round teams it be 4 games, once they use up all their pts BINGO we fade them.
Well, I can tell you this.................... the Bills have loads of pts to use, they have the potential to win this game big. so do the 9ers, Eagles and even KC. I think we see more blowout wins from these teams coming.
Another reason not to be afraid of laying the pts with Bills.
Interesting that the Chargers had used all most all their pt margin up for the entire 4 games needed to win SB in the 1st half ALONE, this is not the type of team that should be winning big. I never applied it at halftime before, never thought about it but will certainly look into that now.
Good ole EWM, one of my favorite methods. I research which stat has the highest correlation with the SB winner's margin of victory through the Playoffs, and it's not pt margin or yards per pt, in fact has nothing to do with pts scored or pts given up.
I orginally used this method only for the SB game and had success sometimes calling the margin with 1 pt or 2 or 3 but then found I could use it in others rounds as well, even for teams don't win the SB.
It works like this, each team based on the key stat gets so many pts through the playoffs so for WC round teams it be 4 games, once they use up all their pts BINGO we fade them.
Well, I can tell you this.................... the Bills have loads of pts to use, they have the potential to win this game big. so do the 9ers, Eagles and even KC. I think we see more blowout wins from these teams coming.
Another reason not to be afraid of laying the pts with Bills.
Interesting that the Chargers had used all most all their pt margin up for the entire 4 games needed to win SB in the 1st half ALONE, this is not the type of team that should be winning big. I never applied it at halftime before, never thought about it but will certainly look into that now.
That was me, my bad as I knew that. Must have mixed that up with my stats on them as a DOG this year when I was putting those both together at same time, no excuse.....Brady and Buccs are 0-3 ats as DOGs this year. 2-15 ATS not 1-15 ATS on other stat line
Thank you America
0
@slamspurs
That was me, my bad as I knew that. Must have mixed that up with my stats on them as a DOG this year when I was putting those both together at same time, no excuse.....Brady and Buccs are 0-3 ats as DOGs this year. 2-15 ATS not 1-15 ATS on other stat line
Please look at Bradys numbers in the $$$ quarter, the 4th quarter this season and his career.. look at Dak’s too.. just ask the Chargers if time periods matter. I say this taking the Cowboys in a big Survivor pool and I’m not comfortable
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@theclaw
Please look at Bradys numbers in the $$$ quarter, the 4th quarter this season and his career.. look at Dak’s too.. just ask the Chargers if time periods matter. I say this taking the Cowboys in a big Survivor pool and I’m not comfortable
EXPECTED WIN MARGIN ....................................................... Good ole EWM, one of my favorite methods. I research which stat has the highest correlation with the SB winner's margin of victory through the Playoffs, and it's not pt margin or yards per pt, in fact has nothing to do with pts scored or pts given up. I orginally used this method only for the SB game and had success sometimes calling the margin with 1 pt or 2 or 3 but then found I could use it in others rounds as well, even for teams don't win the SB. It works like this, each team based on the key stat gets so many pts through the playoffs so for WC round teams it be 4 games, once they use up all their pts BINGO we fade them. Well, I can tell you this.................... the Bills have loads of pts to use, they have the potential to win this game big. so do the 9ers, Eagles and even KC. I think we see more blowout wins from these teams coming. Another reason not to be afraid of laying the pts with Bills. Interesting that the Chargers had used all most all their pt margin up for the entire 4 games needed to win SB in the 1st half ALONE, this is not the type of team that should be winning big. I never applied it at halftime before, never thought about it but will certainly look into that now.
Interested to see hoe that evolves Claw
0
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:
EXPECTED WIN MARGIN ....................................................... Good ole EWM, one of my favorite methods. I research which stat has the highest correlation with the SB winner's margin of victory through the Playoffs, and it's not pt margin or yards per pt, in fact has nothing to do with pts scored or pts given up. I orginally used this method only for the SB game and had success sometimes calling the margin with 1 pt or 2 or 3 but then found I could use it in others rounds as well, even for teams don't win the SB. It works like this, each team based on the key stat gets so many pts through the playoffs so for WC round teams it be 4 games, once they use up all their pts BINGO we fade them. Well, I can tell you this.................... the Bills have loads of pts to use, they have the potential to win this game big. so do the 9ers, Eagles and even KC. I think we see more blowout wins from these teams coming. Another reason not to be afraid of laying the pts with Bills. Interesting that the Chargers had used all most all their pt margin up for the entire 4 games needed to win SB in the 1st half ALONE, this is not the type of team that should be winning big. I never applied it at halftime before, never thought about it but will certainly look into that now.
Bills look ready to blow Dolphins out, problem was as much as they completely dominated the game early the lead they built wasn't what it should have been considering the level of domination. They should have been up 27 or 28 to 3, but minimum 24-3 not 17-3, when a team has a strong moment like Bills did they need to build a huge lead then the opp starts pressing and that leads to mistakes.
Dolphins did just enough to keep the game somewhat close enough to stay in the game, once Dolphins cut the lead to 17-9 and got within 1 score I kind of knew Bills were in trouble of not only covering but maybe even winning. Skylar seemed from watching the game he played pretty well for him but looking at the QBPR he was dreadful and Allen outplayed him by quite a bit.
He had like a 44.5 QBPR, dreadfully bad. When we look at total yards, ave per play Bills crushed the Dolphins.
93.1 to 44.7 QBPR margin
423 to 231 yards margin
5.9 to 3.3 ave per play
6.9 to 3.9 ave per pass
when we look at offensive performance of Dolphins it was terribly bad but yet they scored 31 pts. Bit of a fluke really. Dolphins shouldn't have been in this game. It's the one concern I had on the Bills, turnover machine Allen, keep turning it over and Bills won't last long VS the good teams like Bengals or KC.
1
sun --- 1-1 ATS, lost .1 units
Bills look ready to blow Dolphins out, problem was as much as they completely dominated the game early the lead they built wasn't what it should have been considering the level of domination. They should have been up 27 or 28 to 3, but minimum 24-3 not 17-3, when a team has a strong moment like Bills did they need to build a huge lead then the opp starts pressing and that leads to mistakes.
Dolphins did just enough to keep the game somewhat close enough to stay in the game, once Dolphins cut the lead to 17-9 and got within 1 score I kind of knew Bills were in trouble of not only covering but maybe even winning. Skylar seemed from watching the game he played pretty well for him but looking at the QBPR he was dreadful and Allen outplayed him by quite a bit.
He had like a 44.5 QBPR, dreadfully bad. When we look at total yards, ave per play Bills crushed the Dolphins.
93.1 to 44.7 QBPR margin
423 to 231 yards margin
5.9 to 3.3 ave per play
6.9 to 3.9 ave per pass
when we look at offensive performance of Dolphins it was terribly bad but yet they scored 31 pts. Bit of a fluke really. Dolphins shouldn't have been in this game. It's the one concern I had on the Bills, turnover machine Allen, keep turning it over and Bills won't last long VS the good teams like Bengals or KC.
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