PR I ................................... last season
WC round --- 5-1 ATS with all leans................. this season 2-4 ATS
1-0 ATS with a 6 pt diff to closing line.................this season 1-1 ATS
last year we had one false favorite, Chargers -2.5 over Jags, PR I had Jags -5.84 over Chargers and my line was correct with Jags winning 31-30
this year we had 2 false favorites, Browns -2 over Texans, PR I had Texans -2.27 over Browns with Flacco adjusted
and Eagles -2.5 over Bucs, PR I had Bucs -5.99 over Eagles , in both games my lines were correct and both dogs won SU.
If we look at last season Jags -5.84 and this season Bucs -5.99, wow those are 2 dogs on the vegas line that are decent sized favorites on my lines and both won SU. My lines has a pretty good SU win rate VS vegas line when I'M on the dog as my fav.
No false favs last year or this year in the divisional round, but we do get them at times and it's pretty good result. False fav in the SB has done very well ATS and SU ABOUT 50%
We did have Steelers -.52 over Bills with Rudolph adjusted and Dolphins -.3 over KC but we need a minimum amount, those are much to small of favorites. I have the amount written down somewhere that correlates over history, I think it is 2 pt favorite or more best going off my memory.
I always use adjusted stats as official line when QB plays in a small amount of games. What I will do in the future is adjust even more based on the number of games. Rudolph played in only 3 games which is way to few, Flacco played in 5 games which is still way to few. I'd think around 12 to 13 or 14 games needs no adjustment but less then that requires a adjustment but 3 games certainly deserves a much bigger adjustment then I normally would give.
Last week I was so busy with a project had to finish by a certain time, just finished yesterday at 3 pm. This week i will have more time. Unfortunately I did miss out on some wins in WC round because of it, didn't have the time to look into things the way I needed to.