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NFL SAC WEEK 7

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Legend
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Posted: #1
40-30-2 ytd
7-3 week 6

Locked 2 plays in early, so thought I'd post to open discussion....

1. Browns@RAMS-5(-110)*Large

Jeff Fischer off a bye is 4-0 ATS. The Browns coming off a heartbreaker(overtime) game vs Denver. Joshie McCown facing another tough defense again.
*note this one opened -4.5, half point value loss*

2. OAKLAND+5(-115)@san diego

Raiders off a bye as well, 2 weeks to gameplan for a division foe who just played a tough game @ green bay. Keenan Allen and Melvin Gordon didn't finish the game, their status is unknown for this one. I get the feeling the Raiders young pass rush fairs well against a banged up charger O line, Rivers has been playing extremely well.
*note this one opened +4, 1 point of value gained*

BOL TO ALL
 
Legend
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Posted: #2
GL this week Sac 
R.I.P. Legend
 
All-Star
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Posted: #3
I haven't looked yet, but I am definitely gonna be careful this week. After all the dogs barking lately it's got to turn around at some point. Last year I think it was like week 10 or 11 where is was fave and over every game the whole week and I got buried. I'm not falling for it this year. I'm not sure which week it will be, but we all know it's coming.
 
MVP
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Posted: #4
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
 
All-Star
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Posted: #5
BOL SAC
 
Legend
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Posted: #6
3. OAKLAND ML(+175)*small

Discussion welcome

Leaning Redskins and Panthers, want to lose the hook
 
Veteran
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Posted: #7
Good luck buddy

I like the over in the Oakland game!
 
Legend
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Posted: #8
Was seeing some OVER implications while capping it Suuma
 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by suuma:

Good luck buddy

I like the over in the Oakland game!

Be careful of this Suuma. The under is 12-0 when Rivers throws for more than 300 yards the game before since the 2012 season. Trends do get broken but I expect the Raiders defense to show up after a bye week but in saying that, the over is 3-1 for the Raiders after 8 days or more rest since 2012. BOL buddy
 
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Posted: #10
BOL this week UMS..

Liking Colts myself vs the Saints in Indy. Think its time we actually saw this Colts team show up against a Saints team that has done nothing all season on the road. 
 
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Posted: #11
Nice!  Those are actually the two games in I'm this week.  Oakland is slightly better than SD anyway, plus healthier and off a bye...I'll take the points in a divisional game like that for sure.  They will win the battle in both trenches, run the ball well.  Like it!

On Arizona on Monday.  Fully expect DD win there.  Baltimore has no pass rush, no secondary, no playmakers, couldn't beat SF, sure as hell won't beat Zona.  Not on the road.  Cards still moving the ball, just playing sloppy and not converting.  I expect them, especially after two losses, to clean up their mistakes and roll at home.  No way Balty wins.
 
Captain
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Posted: #12
I hate putting money on the Raiders but I'm going to this week. BOL
 
Legend
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by mushroomspore:

Nice!  Those are actually the two games in I'm this week.  Oakland is slightly better than SD anyway, plus healthier and off a bye...I'll take the points in a divisional game like that for sure.  They will win the battle in both trenches, run the ball well.  Like it!

On Arizona on Monday.  Fully expect DD win there.  Baltimore has no pass rush, no secondary, no playmakers, couldn't beat SF, sure as hell won't beat Zona.  Not on the road.  Cards still moving the ball, just playing sloppy and not converting.  I expect them, especially after two losses, to clean up their mistakes and roll at home.  No way Balty wins.

Interesting thing about this game I found is the line opened AZ-6.5(-125)  that's crazy juice for an opener, and "sharps" or what I rather call em "early bettors" took it anyway. Now it's -7.5. Not sure what to make of that.

One thing is for sure, I wouldn't want to bet against a pissed off Bruce Arians right now.
Think Harbaugh has USC on his mind maybe? Heard a little talk last week he might be a candidate
 
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Posted: #14
 
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Posted: #15
Gl this week Bro
 
Legend
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Posted: #16
4. SAINTS@COLTS OVER 52(-110)

Wise man once said "take the highest total and bet the over, take the lowest total and bet the under"

With the Saints only scoring 22.33 ppg and the Colts scoring only 21 ppg why would the total open at 52.5?

With the Saints D allowing 27.33 ppg and the Colts allowing 24.5 ppg...
by my math combining the offensive ppg w/ the defensive  ppg we get a score of Colts 24.16 Saints 23.41.
Add 3 points for home field advantage=Colts 27.16 Saints 23.41
A total of 50.57 seems like taking the UNDER is the easy play.

But when it comes to taking an OVER, I like capping both teams defenses and finding offensive strengths vs defensive weakness angles. 


SAINTS DEF DVOA=#32 vs COLTS OFF DVOA=#15

COLTS DEF DVOA=#21 vs SAINTS OFF DVOA=#8

SAINTS PASS DEF=#32 vs COLTS PASS OFF=#15

COLTS PASS DEF=#26 vs SAINTS PASS OFF=#9

SAINTS RUSH DEF=#23 vs COLTS RUSH OFF=#20

COLTS RUSH DEF=#20 vs SAINTS RUSH OFF=#15

Every offensive rank in all the above categories are better than the respective defensive ranks. Some alarming, a couple w/ a smaller margin. Let's dig deeper...

Saints D line ranks #16 in pass rush w/ 12 sacks.
Colts D line ranks #31 in pass rush w/ 8 sacks.

Colts D line ranks a formidable #7 in stopping the run, but the Colts D ranks #25 vs the short pass. Something the Saints use quite often especially w/ the screen game utilizing 3 running backs keeping their legs fresh.

Colts secondary ranks #32 vs "other WR's" in other words not the WR1 or WR2. Sean Payton likes to deploy multiple sets throughout the game throwing different looks at a defense.
Colts are ranked #21 vs the TE. Watson had a monster game last week and Josh Hill will also be used.

Saints secondary is ranked #28 vs the deep pass. We all know Luck has a strong arm, feels like TY is due for a bomb. Moncrief has been a pleasant surprise his second year in.

Saints are ranked #32 vs the TE. Colby Fleener and Dwayne Allen became the first TE tandem in nfl history to catch 8 TD's apiece in the same season in 2014.

If you have a play ATS on one of these teams sunday, you might experience multiple small heart attacks for I see a lot of lead changes. I'll be on the OVER

BOL TO ALL


 
Captain
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Posted: #17
 
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Posted: #18
good luck sac think ure stealing one third of my card on sunday
 
Legend
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Posted: #19
5. ravens@CARDINALS-8(-115)*med

Main reasons stated in post #13. Only a medium play(3.5% of bankroll) here because I'm laying over a td.

May write a little something up if I find the time.


BOL FELLAS
 
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Prospect
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Posted: #21
BOL

like the picks
 
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Posted: #22
6. 4 TEAM 7pt TEASE(+200)*med

Rams+1
Raiders+11
Cardinals-1
Saints/Colts OVER 45

BOL
 
Legend
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Posted: #23
7. JAGUARS+4.5(-110)*reg@London

8. JAGUARS ML(+185)*small


With 3 key possition players out on offense, Watkins, Harvin and Taylor this will be a tough task for Buffalo to try and muster up any chemistry on offense. Add that they lead the league in penalties per game(10.3) Add the long trip to London...

Jax has been to London twice, they are familiar w/ the flight, hotel, stadium and people.

W/ talks of Gus Bradley on the hot seat, and known to be a players coach, I think his guys get up for him big time here.

Jags show their teeth, and I think the SU win is attainable.

BOL FELLAS
 
Legend
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Posted: #24
GL Sac

i like the Jags play with all the Bills injuries. Jags defense isn't that bad and i think they can keep an undermanned Bills offense in check. i'd play the points but scared of taking the ML.. don't know which Jags team will show up but Blake Bortles is progressing nicely as a passer with some decent wideouts to throw to( Allen Hurns & Robinson) 
Sip on that plus money honey!
 
 
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Posted: #25
GL this week, sir.
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