Houston Texans @ Cleveland Browns
Remember how bad of a
spot the Bengals were in when they were playing on the road after tying the
Panthers 37-37? They got shutout by the Colts, but preceded to win the
following game against the 5-2 Ravens. Similar scenario this week. I mentioned
prior to the game against the Browns that teams trying to win their third
straight home game cover at less than a 20% clip - and if they do win, they
cover on the road the following game at less than 10% (Steelers @ Jets, Pats @
Colts). The Bengals were in a terrible spot last week, so I'm not making much
out of their loss. The game I want to look at more though, is the Browns. The
Browns are being overrated due to that aforementioned win at Cincinnati,
when really it was just a terrific spot for them. Prior to that game, they were
outgained by the Jags, Raiders, and Bucs in 3 consecutive weeks. The Texans
meanwhile, will be getting Jadaveon Clowney and Brian Cushing back for their
defense and hopefully will have a healthier Arian Foster going up against a 28th
ranked rushing defense.
San Francisco 49ers @ New York Giants
Another team that was in a great spot last week was the 49ers. I took them on the ML against the Saints because they were in a 18-3 ATS situational spot, and in a must-win game to stay in the division race as they were just 4-4 on the year. I’ve already shared how teams perform after playing in Seattle (Giants), however there is one stadium in the NFL that has a worse lingering ATS record the following game. And that is the only stadium that is more electric than Seattle – New Orleans. The 49ers need to win this game, but I have no idea how they will be able to muster up the same energy and intensity as they did last week in their must-win game as they had to do everything possible to win – in a stadium where the Saints havn’t lost for 20 straight under coach Payton.
The Giants were
embarrassed against Seattle last week - the Seahawks set a franchise record for
most rushing yards in a game. Dogs after giving up 270+ rushing yards are an
astonishing 20-2 ATS since 2006,
covering by an average of 7.85 points per game. I expect the Giants to sell out
against the rush this week in order to not replicate last week’s performance,
making Kapernick do more of the damage with his arm. Considering how his
offensive line has played, and the fact that he only completed 44% of his
passes against a terrible Saints defense, I give the edge to NY. I know they
lost by 21 last week, but the Giants held tough for 3 quarters before some
misfortune in the fourth. They had several chances to jump on consecutive
turnovers after Eli threw a tipped interception but the ball just wasn’t
bouncing their way. Eli also had to do everything on his own as they had no
running game to speak of; however, they get their star RB Rashad Jennings back
this week. This is a revenge game for the 49ers, but an absolutely terrible
spot for them. The 49ers worst ATS record among the 32 teams in the NFL is also
against the Giants as they are just 1-7
ATS over the past decade. I’m hoping they squeak out a 1 or 2 point victory
because I have some futures on them, but I don’t see it happening this week.
Seattle Seahawks @ Kansas City Chiefs
Two statement games
going on this week. The Colts will be looking to make a big statement against
the Pats at home on SNF, and the Chiefs. The Chiefs have won 6 of the last 7
games yet no one is talking about their chances as a Superbowl contender this
year. Well here’s their chance to make a statement against the Superbowl
champs. Seahawks road games this year: SU Loss at SD, slim cover at WSH,
SU Loss at St Louis, slim win at CAR (no-cover). I discussed in the SF/NY game
above how teams perform after getting embarrassed by continuously getting ran
on all game, well how does the other team perform the week after? One would
think the offensive line has to be beat up and gassed after 45 rushing attempts but let’s take a look.
Road teams after a home win where they rushed for 270+ yards – facing an
opponent off a win: 0-12 ATS the
past 15 years, losing by an average of 14.17 points. This includes several
blowouts of 0-22, 3-35, 3-23, 0-34, and 7-34. The Seahawks should be 3.5 point
underdogs here but they're being overvalued due to their Superbowl win. Take
advantage.
Denver Broncos @ St Louis Rams
Jeff Fisher is a great coach with one of the best ATS records in the league as an underdog. He always performs well against divisional opponents and teams he knows very well. His team despite having far less talent, beat the 49ers SU and Seahawks SU as big dogs, almost beat the 49ers a second time, and came very close to beating the Cardinals as well. One angle that no one is talking about in this game – no coach in the league has played against Peyton Manning more in their career than Jeff Fisher (titans v colts). The Rams have the defense to contain the Broncos offense especially since Denver will be playing in its third straight road game. I’m thinking this will be a close matchup. Too much to ask for an upset?
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