Posted:
#51
Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:
"San Francisco 49ers @ New York Giants
Another team that was in a great spot last week was the 49ers. I took them on the ML against the Saints because they were in a 18-3 ATS situational spot, and in a must-win game to stay in the division race as they were just 4-4 on the year. I’ve already shared how teams perform after playing in Seattle (Giants), however there is one stadium in the NFL that has a worse lingering ATS record the following game. And that is the only stadium that is more electric than Seattle – New Orleans. The 49ers need to win this game, but I have no idea how they will be able to muster up the same energy and intensity as they did last week in their must-win game as they had to do everything possible to win – in a stadium where the Saints havn’t lost for 20 straight under coach Payton.
The Giants were embarrassed against Seattle last week - the Seahawks set a franchise record for most rushing yards in a game. Dogs after giving up 270+ rushing yards are an astonishing 20-2 ATS since 2006, covering by an average of 7.85 points per game. I expect the Giants to sell out against the rush this week in order to not replicate last week’s performance, making Kapernick do more of the damage with his arm. Considering how his offensive line has played, and the fact that he only completed 44% of his passes against a terrible Saints defense (Yes, but how many dropped passes were there?), I give the edge to NY. I know they lost by 21 last week, but the Giants held tough for 3 quarters before some misfortune in the fourth. They had several chances to jump on consecutive turnovers after Eli threw a tipped interception but the ball just wasn’t bouncing their way. Eli also had to do everything on his own as they had no running game to speak of; however, they get their star RB Rashad Jennings back this week. This is a revenge game for the 49ers, but an absolutely terrible spot for them. The 49ers worst ATS record among the 32 teams in the NFL is also against the Giants as they are just 1-7 ATS over the past decade. I’m hoping they squeak out a 1 or 2 point victory because I have some futures on them, but I don’t see it happening this week."
So this is the reasoning, eh, LC. I know your system has been profitable for you over the years, but the problem with this style of capping (i.e., applying league wide trends, etc) is that there are always going to be exceptions (like a Geno Smith, who is historically bad). This is what I meant last week when I said you gotta take a more holistic approach to some of these games. You say teams playing at the Superdome don't play well the following week (or have a poor ats record). But how many teams actually win at the Superdome? And what effect does a team beating the Saints at home (under Payton) have on that team's confidence/psyche going into the next game? Are there any stats that tell us this? To go further, what happens to teams (who are in a must win situation) that end another teams 20 game win streak at home, under a certain head coach (Payton), the following week? Is there any data for this? To go further, what happens to teams in the above mentioned scenario, when they get one of their defensive studs back after a nine game suspension and, at the same time, lose another one of their stars (Willis) to a season ending injury? Is there any data for this? To go even further, what happens to teams in the above mentioned scenarios if they are coached by a man (Harbaugh) who is a force of nature and is not only seeking revenge against a team that has beaten his the team the last two times but is also trying to prove all the doubters wrong? Finally, and I don't know if you've noticed this but I have; the Niners have been getting a lot of favorable calls the past few weeks (even game changing calls). They also got those calls last year against the Panthers in the playoffs when you backed the Panthers. You know why? Because the Niners are a great story. Harbaugh is a lightning rod. The games they play against Seattle are epic. In short, the Niners are good for business. Now is there any data/trend/stat that can take into account all the anomalies I've just mentioned? You see what I'm getting at, my friend?
Best of luck!
Good thoughts BB and to answer your question, teams are 4-11 ATS last 15 games after winning in New Orleans. I get what your saying though and your right, there are many ways to win. This is my strategy and my approach to how I cap games. Doesn't have to be yours
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