*** NFL Sunday Ticket ***

LC,

Out of 15 weeks of posting, this week definitely needed write-ups, if not lengthy ones and nary a write-up is found outside of an abbreviated response regarding the Niners.

So we will start by looking at the games in red:

As we've learned on this site, we make our money off dogs and you have several. But these dogs may leave you out in the cold holding the bookie's slippers in your mouth.

Let's start with the Dolphins +8 (3x) :

I'm almost certain you were on the Fins in Week 1. Good pick.

This one? Without justification or a backdoor you want to barrel through, I'm not so certain.

You were getting +3.5 in week one in Miami, the Pats were overrated to start the season (as always), divisional game, Gronk's first game back from injury etc.

Also, the heat played a major role in that game as Game 1 in Miami in the beginning of September is blazing summer weather, probably in the low 90's had the Pats gassed early who were also not at full game speed given it was week 1.

The Dolphins won outright, if not impressively.

Now we come to Week 15.

Pats are in a groove, at home, have revenge and where you could be getting closer to 10, you are only getting 8.

Gronk is now in a groove, the whole team is in a groove having won 9 of 10 and the Pats just won a very impressive game (and cover) in SD going away.

And now you like the 8 for 3 units.

Are you expecting the Fins to win this game? Very tough spot for the Fins to win this one as the Pats continue to seek the #1 seed so no laydown here. So we only look to a cover with a line that is a bit short, lacking the full value it should have.

Let's also remember this: Where are the quality wins for the Dolphins? Let's look at the better teams they played and the results:

KC, Green Bay, Detroit, Baltimore - All losses SU and ATS.

Good covers: Denver (L straight up) and SD (W) and NE (W)

And the latest Jets cover was due to a mutiny. If the Jets don't run the ball 100 times, they put more than 13 points on the board and likely win, sending Miami into a 4 loss in 5 tailspin...not a team that is attractive this week.

I see more bad than good and now one of the good wins this year is lost as that team has a revenge spot.

We need some detailed explanation on this one.

Traditionally, lines are adjusted 3 pts to a neutral field and then 3 pts for home resulting in a 6 pt swing.

This is a long-standing principle of line setting.

We are assessing 8 here.

I obviously implied 14 weeks have passed since week 1 (and shouldn't have to even imply such a thing since it is so obvious).

So the standard adjustment all things being equal should be 9.5 and 10 for even greater home field advantages.

Then you compare the standard adjustment to the current line given all that has transpired.

I addressed all that has transpired by analyzing quality wins and covers over the course of the year and their performance in the Jets game and the fact the Dolphins would be in a tailspin if they didn't get that last-second win vs. the Jets. Oh, and there was even more than that in the write-up. In fact, I have gone as far as to justify every single point in a spread of NBA write-ups, so you need not address me about lines and their value.

So the 9.5/10 is actually far more reasonable than 8. That explains a lot doesn't it? If not, I can't help ya.

Vikings have not 'played better' off a 3 pt cover against the Packers.

I detailed this in the write-up.

The cover against the Packers came on a 5 yard TD with 3:23 left. That is called a 'backdoor' cover and not something you should depend on over the long-term (or put a lot of units on).

The Panthers grossly outgained them and their miscues (not the Vikes great play) ended that game before it began.

As a matter of fact, the Panthers outgaining them in the box score in a loss is something you've used to justify a side against an opponent (which would go against your pick of the Vikings) and the Panthers did just that.

Take away an 87 yard breakdown in coverage, the Jets also outgained the Vikings (and even at that the total yards were 410-411). So even at home, the Vikings struggled against the lowly Jets and could have easily lost save a missed tackle.

In my view, their past 2-0-1 ATS could easily be 1-2 ATS so the suddenly hot Vikes are colder than a Thanksgiving turkey.

You see differently because of a black box 'certain teams' trend which again, can be microanalyzed to apply to any team you want when you take out other 'certain' teams which make it a less valuable trend.

Giants-

May have holes in the defense but their offense is clicking with 60 pts in 2 weeks and they are not laying down. And the Redskins D is bad as well which you have to factor in. It's offense? A total crapshoot with a gimpy QB and speaking of coaches (if you want to mention the Lions coach as a detriment to them) this is a coach on the hottest of hot seats for what he has done with that team (very little if nothing). Not enough there for me to support the Skins in any way.

Say whatever you will, SF is NOT a good team any longer.