*** NFL Sunday Ticket *** Week 2

Hit my top play last week with the Titans, this week’s belongs to Buffalo.

New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills

Huge Patriots fan here telling you not to believe what you saw in week 1 against the Steelers. The Patriots will be a 3 man team early in the year with Brady, Gronk, and Edelman. They have a rebuilding defense that the Steelers couldn’t take advantage of due to Bell, Pouncey, and Bryant being out of the game. Because of this defense, and an improving AFC East - I bet the Bills OVER team wins a few weeks ago as well as the Dolphins to win the division (adding more on that today). 

The Bills should take care of business this weekend as this is a terrible matchup for NE on the road this early in the season. I’m not a fan of big mouth Rex but he’s faced Brady 13 times in his career as a coach going 5-1 ATS over the past 3 years. Now, he has a team that is far improved facing a Patriots defense that is still a work in progress. Belichick always gets the best out of his team despite personnel issues but it usually takes him a month or two to move things around and work his magic. By then, the Bills and Dolphins could both easily have a two game lead over them while the Patriots will be getting everyone’s best all season long which will make it hard for them to make up ground, especially with this defense. I still expect the Patriots to be a wildcard team but I fully expect the Bills to blow them out this weekend.

Miami Dolphins @ Jacksonville Jaguars

This is the worst spot the Dolphins will be in the first half of the season. Given Philbin is the coach; I don’t expect him to coach his way out of it despite the talent disparity. I’d be surprised if the Jaguars didn’t win this game and normally this would be an automatic ML bet for me but since it’s the Jags, I’m going to keep it safe and just play the spread.

• Bills +105 (5x)
• Bears +2.5 (2.5x)          
• Browns +105 (1.5x)     
• Redskins +3.5 (3x)
• Jaguars +6 (3x)

• Bears +9.5 / Bills +7 -120 (2.5x)
• Jaguars +14 / Redskins +10.5 -120 (2x)

• Dolphins to win AFC East +415 (2x)

Total: -1.15 Units

Dolphins are a defense minded team that had to come back and win down by double digits. That normally doesn’t affect a high-octane offense but when the Defense had to do it and hold the opponent to 0 points for the remaining 3 quarters, it exerts a lot of energy. Then travelling and laying almost a touchdown again on the road. The Jaguars outgained the Dolphins by 50 total yards last year but lost due to 2 pick sixes. Revenge games are more noted when a team feels they played far better than the overall score indicates (27-13). These teams are in-state rivals and Miami also has two divisional games on deck. The Jags didn’t play that bad last week, they held the Panthers to 105 yards on 34 carries on the ground which is really good. Their main issue again was a pick 6, despite that - the final score would have been 13-9 against a very good Carolina defense , even after missing 4 kicker points (FG + XP). Miami won’t have the easiest time converting first downs in this one and if Bortles can take care of the ball, they should do well. Obviously a big if with Bortles at the helm but I’ll take my chances against a gassed D – especially when they’ve discreetly given up 165 yards rushing per game over the past 7 games.