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NFL THURS Bears vs Packers, BAIT/TRAP line of the week here.

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Posted: #26
Quote Originally Posted by BMWSLSMN:


Your absolutely right!!! I was typing faster than I was thinking GB put up 22.  Still believe this is a good spot for GB to beat the Bears.  Freeney was out after the first qrtr making an already crappy Indy def crappier.  CHI looked better than they are.


As crazy as it sounds, I think the Bears now have more weapons offensively than the Pack.  I also think the Bears have an advantage on D. Bears D gives up gobs of yards, and is not really that good.  But the Pack D is awful.  This game may come down to whoever runs the ball better.  That will clearly be the Bears

I like the Bears to win this game, in a little bit lower scoring game than most think.

Also, since 2001, the team that had more takeaways has won EVERY game.  Advantage Bears.
 
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Posted: #27
"the team that had more takeaways has won every game. Advantage Bears"

in this case, you are wrong: advantage packers... packers were 3 rd best in turnover differential last year. The pack just lost to niners, one of teams with a better turnover differential, essentially because of the rodgers int,

last year, the packers defense was worst in the league in yardage allowed, but lead the league in interceptions... in other words, they relied on the 'big play' to bail them out, anf when the other team doesnt make mistakes, it makes their defense look terrible.... guess what, jay cutler is prone to making mistakes and throwing bad interceptions....

If we are using predicted turnover differential as a basis for the winner of the game, you have to choose the packers
 
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Posted: #28
Razor, im on the other side bears looked good against that crappy indianopolis team. Bears defense isnt that good Luck still passed for over 300 yards. The only reason why i think it was a big victory for the bears was cause Luck threw 3 interceptions right into the hands of the bears. Rodgers threw for over 300 on SF defense which is one of the best. what make u think that they wont do the same or better against the Bears? this game reminds me of last year the bears beat falcons 30-13 in week 1. then in week 2 lot of peopole were on the bears vs saints. but i pounded the saints
Gb-6
 
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Posted: #29
 
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Posted: #30
the bears beat the f in colts at home.....that is like the dodgers beating the astros at home...I would not give them too much credit....jay cutler is not aaron rodgers.... giving less than 7 at home is a gift.....not a trap.....gb is angry and has pride...they will cover 5.5....they will be playing twice as hard
 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by seaona1:

the bears beat the f in colts at home.....that is like the dodgers beating the astros at home...I would not give them too much credit....jay cutler is not aaron rodgers.... giving less than 7 at home is a gift.....not a trap.....gb is angry and has pride...they will cover 5.5....they will be playing twice as hard


And that is exactly why this is a trap line sir.....90% of the naive gamblers of the world will be thinking this same exact way....And I will e there to collect
 
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Posted: #32
Good write up and valid points. However, I'm leaning gb in this one, i still think the pack are a scary good team regardless of defense but they just ran into who I think the best team in the league is. The bears are a solid team but I think they're overrated and hyped up like crazy like they always do. I think this will be a close game but I really feel cutler will throw a few picks. My prediction, packers 27, bears 17. I think the 6 points is right spot on. Liking packers but not heavily. Good luck either way.
 
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Posted: #33
I think we can all agree on one point: jay cutler needs to keep his mouth shut:

https://m.espn.go.com/nfl/story?storyId=8366405
 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by thawv:



As crazy as it sounds, I think the Bears now have more weapons offensively than the Pack.  I also think the Bears have an advantage on D. Bears D gives up gobs of yards, and is not really that good.  But the Pack D is awful.  This game may come down to whoever runs the ball better.  That will clearly be the Bears

I like the Bears to win this game, in a little bit lower scoring game than most think.

Also, since 2001, the team that had more takeaways has won EVERY game.  Advantage Bears.

GB has a huge problem to address if they want to make noise come Postseason and that is the only thing their D is good at is takeaways.  Those come far and few in between and no team in the NFL can survive with that.

This is the regular season, its the 2nd game of the year, GB just got beat (I took SF ML Last Week) and now are home to the Bears.  Simply put I don't consider the Colts to be a good measure of what the Bears could do.  Alot of hype surrounding the Bears this year, they were at home, and it was the COLTS. Luck or no Luck they SUCK!!

GB needs to make up for last week.  Its going to be a gun slinging day for Rodgers and in a shootout I believe he out guns Cutler.
 
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Posted: #35
Not sure how it's a trap line at all. Short rest week, at home, team that lost 1 game last year, coming off a loss. I mean, it's a 1 possession line and I can see Matthews wreaking havoc on a slow O-line causing int's or fumbles. I think it's about right and won't over think it personally.
 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by RazorSharps:




Kevone,

Your point would be very valid had the Bears beat up a proven team like say the Patriots or Giants.  The fact they beat up on the Colts is not really surprising.  The line on that game was Bears -10 at most betting cages by the start of the game, so it was expected that the bears would blow them out, and they did.  Try to see it,  the Packers are home coming off an embarrassing home loss and only -6??.....Bro your betting instinct has to be firing here.  Catching the Packers under a measly TD???  that's a steal right??  WRONG
Was thinking the same. GL to us sharps.
 
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Posted: #37
Tough game Razor.........got a feeling the Packers win SU but dont cover. Very tough game! GL!
 
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Posted: #38
 
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Posted: #39
Roger made some bad decisons in that game. Throwing into 2x coverage a few times once on 3 and 1 to open the 3rd quarter. Getting picked when the score was 23-15. He looked more like favre than rogers. The packer defense played better than last yr having 2-3 sacks? They will be fine. The more the offense plays together and they get cedric the entertainer more carries the better they will be. Who said bears have ore weapons? Not bloody likely. .  GB 27-13.
 
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Posted: #40
I bet the Bears on a teaser for +20. If I had to pick a team ATS, I would pick the Bears.
 
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Posted: #41

 good call razor i love it

 

now how about that dallas line ... bait and switch .. you all over the seachickens this weekend?

 
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Posted: #42
Razor, I'm with you on da bears, if CULTER takes care of the ball ,Forte can definetly run the ball enough to keep Bears in striking distance, the pack is struggling at this point to reach last year's form.
 
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Posted: #43
What one considers "bait" is subjective.  IMO 6 pts more than anything is inviting Bears money. Spotting a popular Bears team a TD, who many are picking to make the superbowl, in a divisional game is big number.  Especially after seeing how these teams fared in their match ups last week.  Bears come in to the season with hype with their off season pick ups and "validated" this hype with a convincing win...at least when you look at the scoreboard vs the Colts while GB looked as bad as they ended last season.  Nevertheless, I no longer do writeups because they are subjective.  And for every write up there are counter points that can be made.  GL, I like GB this week by DD.
 
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Posted: #44
I disagree. I do agree that this game could be close, but I think Green Bay will win by atleast a FG, and the spread is a tossup but I would lean Green Bay.   San Francisco's defense is amazing, and able to do things that other teams cannot defensively. Benson still runs with power, and a 6/7 in the box type defense by the Bears will get slammed through. Chicago is not as talented defensively as the 49ers. I expect a bounce back game from the Packers (remember this team was 15-1 last year) And I personally am staying away from the Bears this week.

The way I played week 1, it may be best to think opposite me! Good luck Razor
 
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Posted: #45
You made a comment that made no sense at all... I'd love GB at 7.5 but I'm pounding Chicago at 6???..,

Yanasaur is spot on!! Home field advantage gives 3-4 points and I dare any fucking body in this forum say Chicago is a better team!! GB is definitely a better team! Get your heads out of your asses and forget the fact that Chicago blasted Indy in week 1... Green Bay played a damn good team week one and lost! Clay Mathews and Charles Woodson will give Cutler hell this week.... This guy is int prone and has shown tendencies to throw the damn ball all over the field with a little pressure on him! NO, I'm not a Packers fan and don't give a damn about them.... 

But I think it's crazy to love a team favored by more than a touchdown and then say you are putting up a max wager when you can get them for less than 7 and jump on the other side... There is no concept at all to that! Other than you are over analyzing and GUESSING its a trap line.... The line is accurate and is where it should be! By no means am I saying this game will be a GB blowout or a FG game! I can see Chicago staying close... But Aaron Rogers is a threat to any spread, any given play... Good luck!!

 
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Posted: #46
Please, please, please keep touting Chicago on these boards. If I can lay less than 7 points and take the Packers, I will be very content. Green Bay played a top 3 team in week #1 and struggled to open up the run game. I think Green Bay solves the run game problem just enough to utilize the play action pass. Not saying Green Bay cannot lose, but if I only have to spot the Bears 6 or less, I'm all over it. Conversely, if I can get the Bears at 7.5 or better, I'll take that.
 
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Posted: #47
Holy Cow!!!  I love it!!!  Everyone love the Pack.  Seriously probably the most overrated team this year people.  Yeah, yeah, yeah talk all you want.  Razor I am 100% with you and its so obvious that with the responses to your post that eveyone loves the Pack this week.  Seriously people your discounting a great Chicago Bears team just because they beat Indy and Green Bay lost to San Fran???  Um first off Chicago dominated that game, 2nd so did San Fran.  Yeah Rodgers got some stats when the game was out of hand aka GARBABE TIME!!  LMAO!!  I am so pist this game aint this weekend as I am going to Vegas on Saturday.  But Chicago is clearly the better team if your not blinded by the past.  This is the NFL and if you cant understand and predict turnover and changes from year to year and why well then you lost already.  Good Luck.  Bears are the best play of the weekend.
 
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Posted: #48
Geezy I said it you dumb shit.  Bears are the better team.  WTF all of a sudden QB is the only position that matters apparently.  LMAO!!!!  Dude Bears may even have better WRs now!!
 
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Posted: #49
Bears will win our division.   With either the Pack or the Lions in 2nd.  Yes I said that too!
 
 
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Posted: #50
Quote Originally Posted by geezytha8man:

You made a comment that made no sense at all... I'd love GB at 7.5 but I'm pounding Chicago at 6???..,

Yanasaur is spot on!! Home field advantage gives 3-4 points and I dare any fucking body in this forum say Chicago is a better team!! GB is definitely a better team! Get your heads out of your asses and forget the fact that Chicago blasted Indy in week 1... Green Bay played a damn good team week one and lost! Clay Mathews and Charles Woodson will give Cutler hell this week.... This guy is int prone and has shown tendencies to throw the damn ball all over the field with a little pressure on him! NO, I'm not a Packers fan and don't give a damn about them.... 

But I think it's crazy to love a team favored by more than a touchdown and then say you are putting up a max wager when you can get them for less than 7 and jump on the other side... There is no concept at all to that! Other than you are over analyzing and GUESSING its a trap line.... The line is accurate and is where it should be! By no means am I saying this game will be a GB blowout or a FG game! I can see Chicago staying close... But Aaron Rogers is a threat to any spread, any given play... Good luck!!



You just dont understand lines and situations.  This is a bait line TRUST ME ON THIS
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