NFL Week 1 - Early Leans & Some Thoughts

@iConsciousness

Dolphins @ Chargers

I have one question for the Dolphins, why aren't they offering DT Christian Wilkins a new deal?

For those that don't know who he is, probably the best run stopper in the nfl.

Sieler is another stud d lineman also in a contract year. One or both of these dudes better get an extension before the season starts. I don't know what their stance is on possibly sitting out or not, but the Phins should be tying up loose ends. 

That D line was a tremendous unit for them last year. And now they added Vic Fangio as DC.

Dude has been a defensive God everywhere he's been.

Started with the Saints as a LB coach. Worked with guys like Rickey Jackson, Pat Swilling, Sam Mills and Vaughan Johnson.

Expansion Panthers, with Fangio were 2nd in scoring defense in their 2nd year, and allowed a nfl record low 56 points after halftime for the entire season. Worked with Sam Mills, Kevin Greene, and Lamar Lathon.

Short stint with the Colts. But he improved the D and helped them win a divisional title after a 15 year drought. 

Sucked ass with the Texans, but who hasn't?

Was with the Ravens from 2006 to 2009 as a special assistant to the coach, working primarily on the defensive side. That D was kinda good...

2010 became the Stanford Cardinals DC, was one of the best units in the nation. They went 12-1.

Became a D coordinator with SF following Harbaugh there. From 2011 to 2013 the Niners went 36-11-1. The defensive #'s within that span were ridiculous. 

Bears D coordinator from 2015-2018. All defense, no offense.

Denver HC from 2019-2021. All defense, no offense. Being the HC was too much for him, he was in over his head. 

2022 took a year off.

What will 2023 hold for Miami's defense?

I know it's only August, but the forum is rather quiet.

I'm pumped for football. 

There's a certain covers mod that might not want to hear this:

Kirk Cousins is 8-9 in night games since joining the Vikings. The Vikings have 5 prime time games this year.

They finished with -13.6% dvoa last year(6th worst team), but finished with a 13-4 record. Their "estimated wins" last year was 6.3, this is like pythagorean wins in baseball. 

Also, they had the 3rd worst special teams unit in the league. -3.8%. This isn't entirely a ranking of kicking alone, but also shows poor depth of talent and possibly poor coaching. 

They were 19th by sos last year. Their schedule looks like a roller coaster this year. Playing shit teams and excellent teams. 

Bucs, @ Eagles, Chargers, @ Panthers, Chiefs, @ Bears, 49ers, @ Packers, @ Falcons, Saints, @ Broncos, Bears, @ Raiders, @ Bengals, Lions, Packers, @ Lions.

They don't have b2b home games till week 15,16 and both are divisional games. They have b2b road games twice.

So they could actually improve as a team if they have made the right off season moves. By how much though? And more importantly what will their record be?

Does 7-9 sound right?

Sorry DJ 

It'll be interesting to see what that game in Arrowhead looks like, since it's always a sea of red there. I figured, unlike LA fans, they don't sell their tickets for a profit.

As for Billings, some times you can find the right guy on the trash heap, put him in a defense with a coaching staff that feels like its tailor-made for them, and voila...you get a real gem. He sounds like our version of Morgan Fox, who is a DT that plays really well in Staley's defense.

You would put money on QB that doesn't win on the road? Haven't beat Indy on the road since 2017.Jacksonville has to play KC in week 2. Revenge game so they'll be looking ahead.

Indy coaches have alot of familiarity with Jacksonville. 

Gardner minshew will be fired up to beat Jacksonville. Rethink this bet unless the rookie starts week 1.

@iConsciousness

 I don't like Vikings in week 1. Tampa is not going to air it out vs Minnesota. They will run the shit out of the ball. That's why Byron Leftwich was fired.

Too many people are thinking losing Brady and starting Baker is an easy cover for Minnesota.

[quote] Since 2004, there have been nineteen occurrences of a team with a successful quarterback either being traded away or retiring. In Week One, those teams have gone 16-3 SU and 15-2-2 ATS.[/quote]

Good luck 

Dude, I can't agree with this. There's no team in history who's made week 1 their look ahead week. No way. Every dude will be pumped to play. Every team is even at 0-0. All that off season work to finally get on the field...

@iConsciousness

It's interesting that Staley was a Fangio protégé. Who knows who better? 

Not every player cares about winning. That's a fact. So no, not everyone will be fired up because it's game 1.

Lawrence replaced Minshew. He can say there's no grudge but he will play better against his former team. It's nuts to take a team that can't beat indy in indy and yet everyone is lining up to grab Jacksonville.

Division home dogs are 22-4 ats in week 1 since 2009. Take the Jags but you were warned. 

@saintsfan1977

 All your reasons for backing Indy instead of the Jags are fine. Except 1, and that's because you think the Jags will be looking ahead. It's not valid imo.

...

Meaning, this is just a casual eye test looking at the current makeup of the teams and what I've reading in training camp so far. Also...

You seem to be dismissing the Jags for the team that they are. They won their last 5 regular season games, and last 7 of 9 regular season games. For as much as the fault lied with the Chargers for blowing a 27 point lead against the Jags in the wild card round, you have to give credit to Doug Pederson, Trevor Lawrence, and their defense as well. They ended up losing to the Chiefs -- the eventual SB winner -- by one touchdown.

Simply put, they are top tier AFC team. Pederson has won a Super Bowl already and will keep this team focused. I'll put more stock on that than the Minshew revenge angle. Forgive me if Minshew doesn't move the needle much for me, regardless of once being a starting QB in Jacksonville.

@Biscuiteater1

 Has the Lions defense added anyone of note this off-season? I'm still of the opinion that the Chiefs > Lions (especially by just 1 TD) for Week 1. But I acknowledge that the Lions are trending in the right direction and could contend for an NFC Championship.

@iConsciousness

 https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-offseason-report-detroit-lions

@undermysac

 Thanks for doin the dirty work on that one. 

Per Vincent Bonsignore:

WR Davante Adams left practice Friday after suffering an apparent leg injury.

EDIT:  Update: "Raiders coach Josh McDaniels hasn't gotten a full report on Davante Adams but his understanding is the injury isn't too serious."

After 1 full week of pre-season play, what is everyone's thoughts?

These thoughts should constantly evolve throughout the preseason, but in my opinion depth is going to play an important role for each team moving forward. I'm getting a glimpse of this with a few teams.

The Jets defense are going to be for real this year. If Aaron Rodgers, Nathaniel Hackett, and the offense hold up their bargain, the AFC East is going to be a real dogfight. Could we see 3 of the team in that division in the AFC playoffs?

Got to watch a few games, not all of them.

Trey Lance looked awful. Threw 2 interceptable balls that won't show up on the stat sheet. One turned into the luckiest of td's.

The Bears had 8 sacks and both starting DE's didn't play. 

The kid from Purdue who plays for the Raiders(O'Connell) looked sharp. Will he be Jimmy G's backup?

The Panthers look to be in a world of trouble but play in the worst division in the nfl.

That's all I got

Zack Martin signs in Dallas

i used to look the sharp football analysis. has he fallen off or is he charging or what now? he ditched the old website and the new one stinks

The Patriots are expected to sign former Cowboys star RB Ezekiel Elliott to a 1-year deal worth up to $6M after his successful FA visit earlier in camp. Some backfield help for NE and a new home for Zeke… who plans to rock his No. 15 from college.